Ultimate Texas Hold'em Bad Beat Bonus

Wizard-

Amazing site. Thank you for your insight and knowledge. I am from California and I am banking a variety of table games in card rooms across the state. I have this Bad Beat Bonus on UTH in one of the clubs for the first time and I am trying to calculate probability and return. The bonus structure varies from that of your site. These are the terms of the bonus as written in the approval:

Player wins if they and the dealer are involved in a bad beat. There are two ways to win:
The player has a three of a kind or better and loses to the dealer.
The player beats the dealer's hand of a three of a kind or better.

The payouts are as follows: Straight Flush beat 7,500:1 Four of Kind beat 500:1 Full House beat 50:1 Flush beat 30:1 Straight beat 20:1 Trips 9:1

So, technically if quads are shown on the board and a kicker is played whether in the dealers or players hand, the bad beat is paid out. Can you help calculate the probability and return of this bonus structure?

Thank You,

Robert from Sacramento

I'd like to learn more about this too. At first glance, this looks like a really volatile bet. I'm looking at the 30:1 flush. If there's four to a flush on the board, it's not unlikely at all for a bad beat to happen.

Quads on the board that pays $2,500 per $5! That seems to happen more often than any other prop bet of that size payout. These payouts make sense according to the qualifications found on the site, but the game approvals I'm seeing now don't have those qualifications like both hole cards have to play. I'm curious about the returns and probability. I need a brighter mind than mine to figure that out.

Please help!

That 50:1 two-way bad beat is the real moneymaker, IMO; that happens all the time with 2 pair or trips on the board, and yet it pays like a SF in PGP. Wow. Nice bet. I would be all over that. I've also seen quads on the board several times, which is a huge automatic win. Much more often than a Royal on PGP.

Edit: disclaimer since the OP doesn't know me. I don't have the math to give you a factual answer; I just love a juicy sidebet. And that one looks super-juicy.

Quote: beachbumbabs

That 50:1 two-way bad beat is the real moneymaker, IMO; that happens all the time with 2 pair or trips on the board, and yet it pays like a SF in PGP. Wow. Nice bet. I would be all over that. I've also seen quads on the board several times, which is a huge automatic win. Much more often than a Royal on PGP.

Quads on board doesn't win unless they both have a different kicker.

Quote: miplet

Quads on board doesn't win unless they both have a different kicker.

Yeah, miplet, good point; I phrased that badly. I always play the Trips, so I think of it as an automatic winner, but if you tied (with both playing the board kicker) the bet would push.

Quote: miplet

Quads on board doesn't win unless they both have a different kicker.

True. But one of you can be playing the board, as long as the other isn't.

Board: QQQQ7
Player: 32 (QQQQ7)
Dealer: 85 (QQQQ8)

If I'm not mistaken, that counts. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong.

And of course the ultimate hand: Straight Flush on the board, and the dealer has the one-up to give EVERYONE the 7500-1.

Quote: Deucekies

True. But one of you can be playing the board, as long as the other isn't.

Board: QQQQ7
Player: 32 (QQQQ7)
Dealer: 85 (QQQQ8)

If I'm not mistaken, that counts. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong.

And of course the ultimate hand: Straight Flush on the board, and the dealer has the one-up to give EVERYONE the 7500-1.

Deuce,

I agree, that would count.

Specific to Cali and the OP, where player-banked games are played, this sidebet would scare me out of banking. Huge volatility; you could break on one hand. If I were playing and it was available, I'd be on it every hand, just based on how often I've seen the paying conditions.

Quote: beachbumbabs

Specific to Cali and the OP, where player-banked games are played, this sidebet would scare me out of banking. Huge volatility; you could break on one hand. If I were playing and it was available, I'd be on it every hand, just based on how often I've seen the paying conditions.

I'm enamored by it too. I'd sure like to see some info on it because the official SHFL rules state the house advantage as ranging from 14-20%. It seems like the hit frequency is, on average, probably few and far between, but if two or three hits in short order come up, a casino could really feel that.

I wasn't sure if we're supposed to link or not, but Stephen How has the math for this bet on his site. It's very bad for the player (of course) which makes it good for the banker (from a mathematical standpoint).

This is a unique game AFAIK because with the huge bonuses available, it's tough for a player banker to be viable since, if you don't have enough money in play, the other players won't play with you because the corporation won't cover only the bonus action.

On the flip side, the players play so terribly, that you, as the banker, have a huge advantage as long as you can fade the big payouts.

If you do put that kind of dough in play, you always run the risk of this happening:

http://www.smdailyjournal.com/articles/lnews/2014-08-08/three-arrested-in-armed-robbery-of-40000-in-casino-chips/1776425128056.html

This guy was player-banking UTH at Lucky Chances in Colma.

I have avoided the SF and 4 of Kind beat so far, but know that it is coming. We have a $25,000 aggregate payout for protection against any major loses, but again I was wondering if this bet is worth the trouble pertaining to the return. I am sure the numbers work out, or else the bet wouldn't be there at all, but what are the numbers for it? Who can I talk to, to help me with this?

Quote: teamz51

I have avoided the SF and 4 of Kind beat so far, but know that it is coming. We have a $25,000 aggregate payout for protection against any major loses, but again I was wondering if this bet is worth the trouble pertaining to the return. I am sure the numbers work out, or else the bet wouldn't be there at all, but what are the numbers for it? Who can I talk to, to help me with this?

Robert,

I appreciate the other member above's question about whether to post this link to Stephen How's work, but I really think it's ok, with attribution.

Stephen How's analysis of UTH Bad Beat

This has exactly the same paytable you quoted, and provides the rate of occurrence, at a HE of 14.8%. Ouch. I would still have to be on it.

Stephen's very reputable, and the Wizard recommends his site (as well as his own, of course).

Perfect! You guys are awesome!

Quote: beachbumbabs

Yeah, miplet, good point; I phrased that badly. I always play the Trips, so I think of it as an automatic winner, but if you tied (with both playing the board kicker) the bet would push.

Actually, with quads on the board, and identical kickers, the bet loses, it does not push, because neither the player nor the dealer "got beat".

I recently saw this side bet at the Admiral casino in Liechtenstein. My analysis agrees with that of Stephen How. I just added return tables to my Ultimate Texas Hold 'Em page.