Odds calculation on Pai Gow promotion

Hi, I wasn't sure to put this question here, or in the Math section so please move if it's in the wrong place.

The casino I work at is starting a very unique promotion on all of our Fortune Pai Gow games, where at certain times of the day our bonus payouts increase for all non-envy paying hands.

Ordinarily we follow the typical Shufflemaster pay table that pays Straight 2:1, Trips 3:1, Flush 4:1, Full house 5:1 and then 25/50/150/400/1000/2000/8000.

During the promotion hours the bonuses pay Straight 3:1, Trips 5:1, Flush 6:1 and Full House 7:1.

My question is what effect does this have on the overall house advantage? Fortune bonus is one of the higher HA side bets at 7.7% but some of our players have really made a killing on this promotion so far and it has proven to be very popular.

Thanks so much!

EDIT: Went into work tonight and found out they pulled the promotion :( Can't say I'm surprised but I know the house lost a TON of money on APs that caught wind of it and were betting black on the Fortune Bonus.

I calculate this gives the player a 22.7% edge on this bet.

Yup, 22.7% for the player. Wow.

Working in the gaming industry, we just love it when local joints take out their "Math dart board" and get all creative with the manufacturer's games, then receive calls: "YOUR game is dumping!" Your casino also needs a 2-for-1 ATM machine. Withdraw $400, get $800. Free money always gets 'em in. This promotion will end soon enough.

Fire the person who thought of this.

Quote: dwheatley

Fire the person who thought of this.

No, don't fire them. Let the players enjoy. That's a huge pay table. Could you PM me with the casino and dates/times, please? I'd travel a long way to play this; it's my utter favorite game.

This could be an ok promo with reasonable maximums. Remember that you have to play the main hand as well, and it's only certain times of the day. There is nothing wrong with a loss leader.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

This could be an ok promo with reasonable maximums. Remember that you have to play the main hand as well, and it's only certain times of the day. There is nothing wrong with a loss leader.

But they could have probably accomplished the same thing with 3/4/5/6 instead of 3/5/6/7.

Even if it is only a certain time of day, ho-lee shiat.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

This could be an ok promo with reasonable maximums. Remember that you have to play the main hand as well, and it's only certain times of the day. There is nothing wrong with a loss leader.

Especially if it is someone else's.

Quote: Paigowdan

Especially if it is someone else's.

Casinos do stuff like this all the time. Anything to get people in the door. Having a drawing? Your first ticket of the day is free just for swiping your card -- no play required! Of course you must be present to win. Sometimes they will have 2:1 blackjack promos.

Stick a $5 max on the fortune bet, and a $25 min on the main hand. So now if someone really wants to, they can make a little over a buck a hand on the side bet, although they have to give half of it back on the main bet. So, yeah, they can grind out 50c per hand if they really want to, and get up as soon as the promo hour ends, and have massive swings (how much do they lose between royals?). They can also swipe their card in for the drawing, get their free ticket, and sit around for 4 hours without playing to see if they won. Or they can sit and grind away at the 25c FPDW machines.

None of this is going to break the bank. I'll bet that most of the players who play this don't stop playing when the promo period ends, and I'll bet that they play other games while they are there. If this gets those players to go to your casino instead of someone else's, it's a net win. You don't need to get every cent that every player has. It's ok to give some of it back once in a while. And if a couple of people game the system and win a little, it really doesn't matter -- the casino is still a huge net winner.

Question to the OP, what are the maximum's for the Fortune side bet? Also, can a player play more than one hand?

You must play (a minimum of) $5 on the fortune bonus and $1 on the progressive. You can play more than one hand, actually you can play 3 hands if you play 50 on the hand. I have a feeling management knows the math on this is flawed at this point, I saw the numbers on the promo. They may pull it by next week.

How would one go about betting this? Does Kelly Criterion apply when there's a long list of payouts? How does that work out?

Wow I figured it was somewhat positive but had no idea it was that much!