UCivan
UCivan
Joined: Sep 3, 2011
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August 20th, 2014 at 2:34:18 PM permalink
One casino in Iowa has Mississippi Stud for a 3-mon trial. In the first 2 months, each month a $10,000 payout was hit. My guess is the player had a $10 Ante and hit Straight Flush. The casino wanted to keep the game longer so it could recover the losses.

I have 2 questions: why this happened (is there any logical reason)? Should the casino keep the game till it has recovered the payouts? Perhaps this presents an opportunity for AP's? Actually, 3 questions.
24Bingo
24Bingo
Joined: Jul 4, 2012
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August 20th, 2014 at 3:00:04 PM permalink
Quote: UCivan

One casino in Iowa has Mississippi Stud for a 3-mon trial. In the first 2 months, each month a $10,000 payout was hit. My guess is the player had a $10 Ante and hit Straight Flush. The casino wanted to keep the game longer so it could recover the losses.

I have 2 questions: why this happened (is there any logical reason)? Should the casino keep the game till it has recovered the payouts? Perhaps this presents an opportunity for AP's? Actually, 3 questions.



It's the business they're in. Some days the bear gets you.

If volume during the trial suggests the game has the potential to be profitable after royalties, they should keep it indefinitely. If not, they should drop it. Throwing good money after bad is as bad a move for a casino as for an AP.

It's possible there was some AP'ing going on here, but it's my understanding that that would only have made a 6k or 8k payout into a 10k one. This is at least mostly dumb luck, and most likely dumb luck on the part of someone playing worse than BS. (Or possibly cheating, but it doesn't sound that suspicious.)

A straight flush in five cards will hit about 1 in 72,000 hands. My guess would be that makes hitting twice relatively unlikely, but not too too strange. But if your only information is the payout, I'd be surprised if one or both weren't quads on a green-chip bettor.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
tringlomane
tringlomane
Joined: Aug 25, 2012
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August 20th, 2014 at 3:12:08 PM permalink
It's the swingiest table game in the casino today. This is part of the reason that the base edge is almost 5% of an ante. Good for management to realize things don't always go their way. This will likely be a cash cow for them if they stay the course.

And quads on green is definitely more likely. They can lower the max bet if they wish to reduce the swing. Mississippi Stud is the only game I have ever seen where a casino offered the game for a $5 ante only.
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
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August 20th, 2014 at 3:18:55 PM permalink
Quote: 24Bingo

A straight flush in five cards will hit about 1 in 72,000 hands. My guess would be that makes hitting twice relatively unlikely, but not too too strange. But if your only information is the payout, I'd be surprised if one or both weren't quads on a green-chip bettor.



Exactly. I've hit this before. Funny story around it too; I came VERY close to sitting that hand out (got a text message, was about to sit out the hand so I could use the phone, then decided to take one more hand. Started with QQ, and the rest is history. I made sure to point out to my friend that she almost cost me $10k)
UCivan
UCivan
Joined: Sep 3, 2011
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August 20th, 2014 at 3:23:46 PM permalink
Quote: 24Bingo

A straight flush in five cards will hit about 1 in 72,000 hands. My guess would be that makes hitting twice relatively unlikely, but not too too strange. But if your only information is the payout, I'd be surprised if one or both weren't quads on a green-chip bettor.

Let me ask the TGD.

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