craps comp question

I got an offer from a casino that if I played $400/hand for 5 hours at any game they would give me $1k in good until lost promo chips. (I confirmed odds bets on craps do count)

It seems to me the best way to play this is to bet $60 on the don't pass and $360 on the odds (they offer 3,4,5 odds). (or $58 on the pass line and $348 on the odds if I wanted to slow the game down).

Don't pass has %1.3636 house edge.

Rolls per Hour in Craps
1 - 249
3 - 216
5 - 144
7 - 135

30% are come out rolls so if I assume 150 rolls per hour that is 45 bets per hour or 225 bets.

Expected loss per bet is 0.790888 * 225 = $177.95 total

My question is if I am calculating this right with regards to the # of rolls and # of bets and the actual number that the 1.36% edge applies to (and are those rolls per hour estimates correct).

The only problem I see with this strategy is that if I am winning the table will likely get empty which will result in more rolls. I guess the best idea is to go at a very busy time.

I'm also trying to get a feel for the variance and how much I should buy in for (I do not want to have to re-buy in). I'm thinking around $4k.

Should I also let the pit boss know ahead of time this is what I'm going to be betting and I plan to be here for 5 hours so they enter it correctly. My main concern is that even though I already confirmed with the marketing department that odds count the pit boss won't rate the odds bet. Also is there a chance they would rate the equivalent pass odds amount (I.E. 300$ odds on don't pass point 4 would really be rated as $150 not $300). Would time be deducted if I got up for 5-10 min a few times to walk around.

Yes I do realize I could lose my whole buy in but I am fine with that assuming the odds are solidly in my favor $+800 expected win.

My first thought is that they are counting on you to go to ruin with $1000 and then say you welched by not continuing to gamble. Hmmm.

Second thought: be damn sure the free odds bet counts as part of the $400. I could see that getting yanked away.

Quote: odiousgambit

My first thought is that they are counting on you to go to ruin with $1000 and then say you welched by not continuing to gamble. Hmmm.

Second thought: be damn sure the free odds bet counts as part of the $400. I could see that getting yanked away.

What do you mean go to ruin with $1000? You mean increase bets and lose it all before the 5 hours are up? Or to lose the $1000 in promo chips?

Of course I will verify the odds counts when I arrive and be sure to get the name of the person who said yes. When I called he asked a supervisor and confirmed it did count. If they change their mind and say no it doesn't count I will enjoy the free room and small food credit with some minimal fun play.

Could they change their mind after the 5 hours of play when I go to get the chips?

I also had another idea. I could bet on the pass and don't pass (would be a bit more complicated math wise since the pass odds vary) and I would give up some expected gain. Of course that would really risk the casino getting mad and it would be boring doing that for 5 hours.

35 on pass and 35 on don't pass with max odds would be 420 total bet on a 5/9. Would be slightly under $400 on 4/10 and over even more on 6/8 which should qualify as an "average" bet of 400$

0.4935+0.476 = 0.9695*225 = $218.14 (real loss would vary based on how many 12's are rolled).

There is a chance they don't allow bets that cancel each other out and... how fucking boring would that be?

Quote: CFTCFT

What do you mean go to ruin with $1000? You mean increase bets and lose it all before the 5 hours are up? Or to lose the $1000 in promo chips?

Certainly if you had $1000 and had to bet $400 each time at anything, your bankroll is too small. But after giving it some more thought I guess it wouldnt matter, you should have a good chance to come out ahead, but you would want to have more than the promo chips. Right?

Quote: odiousgambit

Certainly if you had $1000 and had to bet $400 each time at anything, your bankroll is too small. But after giving it some more thought I guess it wouldnt matter, you should have a good chance to come out ahead, but you would want to have more than the promo chips. Right?

I wouldn't really care. Of course I'd want to win on the don't pass bets and get the 1k as gravy but if I lost 2k and got 1k in promo chips that's the way the cookie crumbles. I agree that 1k is WAY too small to start with but the variance appears to be less on the DP so perhaps 4k or ~10 bets would be enough to only have a 10% chance of losing it all.

I guess i'm looking for the probability of losing $4k before finishing 225 hands at 60/360.

Is there a website out there where you put in the odds and the amounts and you get one of those expected outcome distributions.

On the other hand, if they allowed it I could walk up with 1k and bore myself to death for 5 hours by betting on the pass and don't pass and get the chips with an almost guaranteed loss of ~$220. I could also see if the bet was doubled and the time halved if the offer would also apply. Logic says it should.

Taking max odds on the passline/don'ts is probably the best way to go about your strategy. I assume you're trying to minimize the house advantage. But here's the problem, you're betting on average no less than 400 per roll. $4k as a bankroll and a 10% chance of losing it all? All for a lousy $1k in comps? Something smells fishy. A casino wouldn't offer that unless they had an edge. A good edge.

If you're intent is to stretch out your bankroll and reduce your variance, some form of doey don'ts is probably your best bet. For example, 1 base unit on both Pass/Don'ts, taking pass odds on 6/8 or 5/6/8/9, and don't pass odds on 4/10. At the end of the day, a $4k bankroll betting 10% can be gone in less than 5 minutes. Can you stomach a bad random streak? I've seen this happen plenty of times, and I was not happy. Not every horse is worth jockeying and not all horses are lame.

If you're interested in playing around with the idea, you can run 2 simulator's just to get a feel. Tell me if you last 4hrs on 4k. The Wizard has a lovely simulator here: https://wizardofodds.com/play/craps/ Just change your base units to $100 which is 10% of the starting bank roll. Or google a program called WinCraps. You can run its sim, and I still wouldn't believe you'd last an hour. $1k comp points/play just doesn't seem worth it.

Quote: Asswhoopermcdaddy

Taking max odds on the passline/don'ts is probably the best way to go about your strategy. I assume you're trying to minimize the house advantage. But here's the problem, you're betting on average no less than 400 per roll. $4k as a bankroll and a 10% chance of losing it all? All for a lousy $1k in comps? Something smells fishy. A casino wouldn't offer that unless they had an edge. A good edge.

If you're intent is to stretch out your bankroll and reduce your variance, some form of doey don'ts is probably your best bet. For example, 1 base unit on both Pass/Don'ts, taking pass odds on 6/8 or 5/6/8/9, and don't pass odds on 4/10. At the end of the day, a $4k bankroll betting 10% can be gone in less than 5 minutes. Can you stomach a bad random streak? I've seen this happen plenty of times, and I was not happy. Not every horse is worth jockeying and not all horses are lame.

If you're interested in playing around with the idea, you can run 2 simulator's just to get a feel. Tell me if you last 4hrs on 4k. The Wizard has a lovely simulator here: https://wizardofodds.com/play/craps/ Just change your base units to $100 which is 10% of the starting bank roll. Or google a program called WinCraps. You can run its sim, and I still wouldn't believe you'd last an hour. $1k comp points/play just doesn't seem worth it.

No i'm not sure what the chance of losing it all is. I was wondering if there was a mathematical way of determining it. In the simulator you should see if you last 225 come out rolls since on a simulator you probably go through the rolls about 20x faster than on a real craps table.

there are folks here who are good at figuring "chance of ruin" , so I'm surprised we havent heard from one of them

Quote: odiousgambit

there are folks here who are good at figuring "chance of ruin" , so I'm surprised we havent heard from one of them

Well, I'm certainly not one of those math types, unfortunately, but my view of this is that the offer is a marginal one and if the casino is making a marginal offer then I would be wary.

By marginal I mean that they will insist you play for five hours and that is certainly bringing the player to the point where a run of bad luck will have him tapped out prior to the five hours. They are not rewarding him for his action they are rewarding him for his committing himself to five hours with a bankroll that is not one with a comfortable margin. IF he bets at those levels and does very well, he gets the bonus. IF he bets at those levels and does anything less than very well, he is not likely to last. So its somewhat illusory irrespective of exactly where the risk of ruin figures are determined to be. What is it? 40 units for four hours? I don't recall.

make sure you completely understand the terms and conditions of the promotion. an example i have is the other week i was trying to take advantage of a $10 free slotplay coupon which u got if u earned 300pts on that day. it was double points day so i figured i had to only earn 150pts making it much more attractive. only the base points counted to the promotion so i was forced to keep playing to earn the other half. since i was already half through meeting the requirements, i wasnt going to abandon the attempt going for it.

also while playing craps, im not sure how your average bet is calculated. if its based on whats your average wager per roll or if its based on average wager per passline bet resolved.

assuming its per roll and 100rolls/hr and $60 per passline/comeline wager, your theoretical loss over 5hrs play should be $420. you can easily have swings of +/- $10,000/hr. $4000 isnt going to last very long without some good fortune so i would forgo attempting to take advantage of this promotion unless you have $30,000 or so to play with.

Quote: rudeboyoi

assuming its per roll and 100rolls/hr and $60 per passline/comeline wager, your theoretical loss over 5hrs play should be $420. you can easily have swings of +/- $10,000/hr. $4000 isnt going to last very long without some good fortune so i would forgo attempting to take advantage of this promotion unless you have $30,000 or so to play with.

Interesting, thanks. I would be playing the don't which I understand does have a lower variance. The offer is also good for $200 avg bet for $500 promo chip or $100 avg bet for $250 promo chip.

So if I only lasted 1/4 of the 5 hours I should get the $250.

I will confirm before playing with a hypothetical - I will ask if a $50 pass line with $50 odds counts as $100 avg bet or $50.

Ideally I would double up the bets while betting on the do and don't and play for half the time and give up approx $250-300 in betting on the 12 on come outs.

Perhaps a better idea would be to start with 30 don't come with $180 on the odds going for the $500 and if I am winning often increase the bets and go for the $1000.

Even with 60/360 on the don't pass the table would basically have to make almost every point to lose 10k/hour.

Maybe i'll dust off the old c++ skills and make a program to test it out.

i think you are missing my point. im not sure how they compute your average bet but i have my doubts that just making a $60 passline bet and $360 odds will count as $420 average bet per hour. im guessing you would need to be continuously making pass/comeline or dontpass/dontcome bets per roll and not just one passline or dontpass bet at a time.

Ok, I will have to see and clarify that. I think the risk of ruin is much more than I thought so I'll probably just play for awhile and have fun and try to hit 100/hand for the $250.

You could use WinCraps or something to do a simulation and figure out your risk of ruin, and figure your actual expected loss (including the promotion) given a certain starting bankroll. With a finite bankroll, there are cases where you go broke before the 5 hours are up, and can't get the bonus, whereas if you had a bigger bankroll you might have come back up.

A quick estimate of your risk of ruin for 5 hours, $400 average bet, fair even money bet (Stddev per root bet = 1), 45 bets per hour:
(not your situation exactly, but I can calculate this case :)

StdDev for 5 hours = 1*Sqrt[45*5]*400 = 15*400 = $6000

Risk of Ruin ~= Erfc[Bankroll/(StdDev*Sqrt[2])] ~ 50% (This is another approximation---> models the process as a continuous [Weiner] process)

If you want to reduce this to about 10%, you need about $10000

dont pass is clearly the better option if they include your odds since you have to bet less on your flatbet.

betting $20 on the passline and taking $80 odds on average, $100 bet.
betting $40 on the passline and taking $160 odds on average, $200 bet.
betting $80 on the passline and taking $$320 odds on average, $400 bet.

betting $15 on the dont pass and laying $90 on each point, $105 bet.
betting $29 on the dont pass and laying $174 on each point $203 bet.
betting $58 on the dont pass and laying $348 on each point, $406 bet.

so you have to find out if odds are included and if you bet these amounts will these numbers count as your average bet.

then you have to find out if you can make just one passline/dontpass wager waiting for a decision to be reached or if you have to continuously make pass/come or dont/dontcome bets per roll.

if you only have to make one pass/dontpass bet, go for the $500 or $1000 promo chip.
if you have to continously make bets, go for the $250 or $500 promo chip.

also try to play at a busy table so there will be less rolls per hour.
also betting $29 on the dontpass/dontcome and laying $174 or betting $58 on the dontpass and laying $348 will also slow the game down since it takes a little longer to figure out how much they have to pay you when you win.

so make sure you find out the answer for all these things before you pursue the promotion.

Quote: DrEntropy

A quick estimate of your risk of ruin for 5 hours, $400 average bet, fair even money bet (Stddev per root bet = 1), 45 bets per hour:
(not your situation exactly, but I can calculate this case :)

StdDev for 5 hours = 1*Sqrt[45*5]*400 = 15*400 = $6000

Since I got home I was able to look up that the standard deviation per 'don't pass' wager is 4.9 for 3,4,5 odds.
So if 60 dollars is your don't pass wager, your stddev for 5 hours is a bit smaller then my assumptions above:

StdDev for 5 hours = 4.9*Sqrt[45*5]*60 ~= $4400
So for a $4000 bankroll, your risk of ruin before 5 hours is more like 40%, and you can reduce this to about 10% with a $7500 bankroll.

How about this idea - go on a busy Friday night when the table is full and there are a minimum of comeout rolls per hour. You bet $400 on the pass line every time, no odds.

Your partner on the other end of the table bets $400 on the don't, and for good measure throws $15 on boxcars on the comeout.

I doubt you will get credit for free odds bets for such a promotion. Ask your host in advance by email; if you get a written reply saying that they will count free odds my advice might be a bit different.

Quote: CFTCFT

35 on pass and 35 on don't pass with max odds would be 420 total bet on a 5/9. Would be slightly under $400 on 4/10 and over even more on 6/8 which should qualify as an "average" bet of 400$

If they have said they are including odds, you could bet the $35-$35 and lay, say, $330 in odds. That would keep the average at $400 and it's divisible by all three payoff ratios.