Money$uit31 Question

I have enjoyed the demo of both M$31 and Match31. Props to mrsuit for these fine games. I have a math Question here on an apparantly borderline play with certain restrictions applied.

1.) The bet is Table Minimum
2.) The Family Bet (at Table Minimum) is always played
3.) The Customer hand is ranked 2-card 14 without a 10-or better (ie 6-8 or 5-9) OR 2-card M$14 in such manner.
4.) Same 14 but using 3-A or 4-(10,J,Q,K)

As long as the "Free" Family Bet is made, what are my EV's (no-10/A and with 10/A) ?
I think its still -EV, but better than the H.A./Free mix of about -1.03%,

*EDIT* I forgot one important fact, the table is full (six), so the Family pot is at 5:1.

98Clubs,

The first thing that you must do is peruse Miplet's Optimal Strategy which can be found here:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gaming-business/game-inventors/14388-money-uit-31-to-go-live-at-the-grey-eagle-casino/4/#post253117

And is also continued on Page 5.

Money$uit31 is a fantastic game, don't get me wrong, but the Basic Strategy from that website absolutely blows. For example, I FOUND a few major exceptions to Basic Strategy, which prompted Miplet to determine Optimal Strategy, that was Page 2 or 3, same thread. Now, if someone with my level of mathematical intelligence (Above-Average compared to general population, below average compared to the Forum) is finding exceptions, you know that Basic Strategy sucks.

Beyond that, you need simulations for this, and the simulations will almost definitely be wrong. The first thing that needs to be determined is what hands you could expect the other people to be dealt, what decision they would make based on Optimal Strategy, the probability those people have to improve to a hand better than the hand you will improve to, then you come up with an Expected Value for playing on v. the family pot. That needs to be compared to the expected loss playing the main game to make a decision.

I believe that you will almost irrefutably play more hands to take a stab at the Family Pot then you would just playing Optimal Strategy on the main game. The closer your wager on the main game to the family pot wager, the more this will be the case.

That having been said, there are at least some things you can infer from players before you folding. The only advice I can really offer for family pot play is to sit at third base and consider how many people Raise/Fold before you when deciding what to do with a border-line hand as relates the family pot value. At a Table Minimum bet, if EVERYONE before you folded, you'd probably try to improve virtually anything that could even possibly result in a win on the Main Game playing Table Minimum to try to lock up the Family Pot.

For example, consider 8, 7, 9, all off, No Money$uit, everyone before you folds:

Okay, so you keep the 8 and 9, and here's why:

1.) You can infer that nobody before you has 18 or 19 because they would have continued to play. If you have an off-suit 8 and an off-suit 9, then a 9 matching the eight (1/49) is a push, a suited ten-value matching the eight (4/49) pays 1:1 as does an Ace matching eight (1/49). The total is 5/49 for +1 unit on the Eight and 1/49 is for +/-0. The Nine can draw a Ten or Ace suited (5/49) for a 1:1 win, and can catch the eight (1/49) for a Push.

The total for the Main Game is thus:

(10/49 * 2) + (2/49 * 0) - (37/49 * 2) = -1.10204081633

However, we can assume you win the family pot in any of these situations, just for the Hell of it, we'll assume anything else is a loss:

(10/49 * 5) + (2/49 * 5) - (37/49 * 1) = 0.4693877551

Thus, the Family Pot still has a positive expected value in this case, and the combined value is a loss of less than 1 unit. Actually, if you assumed everyone else played the Basic Strategy, then they would have played with either 15 or 16, as well, so that is three more winning cards and three less losers.

(13/49 * 5) + (2/49 * 5) - (34/49 * 1) = 0.83673469387

This is a negative proposition of less than half a unit, but folding is likely a negative proposition of 2 units, so you would play on with this otherwise abysmal hand.

Conclusion

This is the reason I hate the Family Pot. On the surface, it seems to have a long-term expectation of 0, but I maintain it has an increasingly negative proposition the closer you get to first base (assuming people-sensibly-base their decisions on what previous players do) and an increasingly positive proposition the closer you get to third base if you base your decision on what other players do.

It also makes the Optimal Strategy more of a suggestion than an actual strategy, because what IS actually Optimal is going to be based on how others play the family pot.

The short answer is that this would need to be simulated for all situations and seating position at the table. The most meaningful advice I can offer is ALWAYS sit at third, but betting the minimum on the Main Game, the game might even have a positive expectation.

Quote: Mission146

The total for the Main Game is thus:

(10/49 * 2) + (2/49 * 0) - (37/49 * 2) = -1.10204081633

However, we can assume you win the family pot in any of these situations, just for the Hell of it, we'll assume anything else is a loss:

(10/49 * 5) + (2/49 * 5) - (37/49 * 1) = 0.4693877551

Thus, the Family Pot still has a positive expected value in this case, and the combined value is a loss of less than 1 unit. Actually, if you assumed everyone else played the Basic Strategy, then they would have played with either 15 or 16, as well, so that is three more winning cards and three less losers.

(13/49 * 5) + (2/49 * 5) - (34/49 * 1) = 0.83673469387

Actually, let's take all of this a step further. If there is only one player, and he folds, then you might make the same assumptions on his hand based on Basic Strategy. Now, let's assume with 9, 8, 7 (all off) you have a 50/50 chance of the 9 holding up against his garbage, the expectation is zero. However, let's say that hitting any of the hands from the previous post would result in you winning the two-way family pot:

(13/49) + (2/49) = 0.30612244898

That represents a positive expectation of taking another card for the family pot, and when combined with the negative expectation (see quote above) from the play on the Main Game still results in a negative expectation that is not only less than that, but also that is less than one unit.

I believe you would almost certainly need more than one other player in the Family Pot to put the game into positive territory, but the possibility of taking that down will result in SERIOUS strategy changes depending on how many players are at the table and how many of them fold.

That's my recommendation, then. Always sit at third base, always bet the table minimum on the main game, play aggressively for the Family Pot (especially when previous players fold). The Optimal Strategy for the game, however, would require intensive simulation based on all possible hand values, number of players at the table, number who PLAY and number who FOLD based on Optimal Strategy.

I would also watch for players who deviate from Basic Strategy and notice where they deviate. If you notice first base PLAYS Ten-Anything, then not much can be inferred from the fact he is playing and you should not let him affect you.

Quote: 98Clubs

I have enjoyed the demo of both M$31 and Match31. Props to mrsuit for these fine games. I have a math Question here on an apparantly borderline play with certain restrictions applied.

Thank you for the kind words 98 Clubs.

As far as missions hatred for the family pot and the advantage a player can have... We have instated a "1st to act" button in Calgary where it rotates around the table as if it was a blackjack tournament or holdem. This will be a part of the game in the jurisdictions which think it is necessary.

98, let me know of any big hands you hit in either game... A bunch of people have told me they have hit or seen the progressive get hit, personally iv done it only once in FIVE years! In Match the other day i hit my best hand so far which was:

holding: Q-10 of clubs
community cards: J of clubs 7 of spades
Money$uit card: Ace of clubs

Not nearly the best hand in the game but it was 100 to 1 up top and 15-1 on the base game, NOT BAD id say.

One last thing about the family pot... Think about sitting at a full six person $25 minimum table. That family pot is a game changer...

Quote: mrsuit31

As far as missions hatred for the family pot and the advantage a player can have... We have instated a "1st to act" button in Calgary where it rotates around the table as if it was a blackjack tournament or holdem. This will be a part of the game in the jurisdictions which think it is necessary.

One last thing about the family pot... Think about sitting at a full six person $25 minimum table. That family pot is a game changer...

I'm afraid I still don't like the family pot because now it is just back to being a forced bet, like if someone forced you to Take/Lay Odds on Craps.

I actually liked it a little better when there was the potential for a player advantage, the House doesn't suffer for it, only the other players. The House only gets their edge off of the base game, either way.

I also agree that the family pot is a game changer, which is my other problem with it, it incentivizes betting the minimum.

I got the chance to look at miplet's fine work, and its a bit much to digest right at this moment. But I do see its intrinsic worth. If the Family Pot is a forced bet, I would not play. Right now, I'm using the demo for what its worth as practice. I do understand the concept that the Family bet can be used to "Preserve the odds" when in fact it lowers the overall odds. Perhaps a balanced strategy lurks within the optimal that allows one to maximize the win upon the Family bet w/o increasing the overall H.A. past the game H.A.

mrsuit31: you're welcome. The idea of 1st to Act is a solid idea. My own ideas of poker-based gaming all incorporate a 1st to act button that rotates Dealer-clockwise as rule.