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October 21st, 2013 at 2:48:26 PM
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Greetings!
If someone would be kind enough to verify this, I'd really appreciate it.
I'm determining the probability of an Ace-High hand with three cards dealt, but I don't want those that include Pairs, Straights, Trips or Flushes:
Ace High (Discludes Pairs/3OaK):
(4/52 * 48/51 * 47/50) * 3 = 0.20416289592760184
Okay, since 3Oak and Paired Aces are automatically out of that, I just need to subtract out Flushes, Straights and other Pairs:
Less All Flushes, Including Straight Flush:
0.20416289592760184 - ((4/52 * 12/51 * 11/50) * 3) = 0.19221719457013578
Now we carry the result:
Straights w/Ace less Straight Flushes:
((4/52 * 8/51 * 7/50) - (4/52 * 2/51 * 1/50)) * 3 = 0.004886877828054299
0.19221719457013578 - 0.004886877828054299 = 0.18733031674208148
Now we carry the result:
Less Any Other Pair:
0.18733031674208148 - ((4/52 * 48/51 * 3/50) *3) = 0.17429864253393668
Result
The probability of having an Ace-High with no hand that is a pair or better is 0.17429864253393668.
Sound right?
If someone would be kind enough to verify this, I'd really appreciate it.
I'm determining the probability of an Ace-High hand with three cards dealt, but I don't want those that include Pairs, Straights, Trips or Flushes:
Ace High (Discludes Pairs/3OaK):
(4/52 * 48/51 * 47/50) * 3 = 0.20416289592760184
Okay, since 3Oak and Paired Aces are automatically out of that, I just need to subtract out Flushes, Straights and other Pairs:
Less All Flushes, Including Straight Flush:
0.20416289592760184 - ((4/52 * 12/51 * 11/50) * 3) = 0.19221719457013578
Now we carry the result:
Straights w/Ace less Straight Flushes:
((4/52 * 8/51 * 7/50) - (4/52 * 2/51 * 1/50)) * 3 = 0.004886877828054299
0.19221719457013578 - 0.004886877828054299 = 0.18733031674208148
Now we carry the result:
Less Any Other Pair:
0.18733031674208148 - ((4/52 * 48/51 * 3/50) *3) = 0.17429864253393668
Result
The probability of having an Ace-High with no hand that is a pair or better is 0.17429864253393668.
Sound right?
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
October 21st, 2013 at 3:24:28 PM
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Type =4*(combin(12,2)-2)*15/combin(52,3) in excel. No computer here or I would.
4 aces
Choose 2 of 12 ranks for the other 2 cards minus the 2 ways to make a straight.
15 suits combinations for the 2 cards.
4 aces
Choose 2 of 12 ranks for the other 2 cards minus the 2 ways to make a straight.
15 suits combinations for the 2 cards.
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
October 21st, 2013 at 3:33:57 PM
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Quote: mipletType =4*(combin(12,2)-2)*15/combin(52,3) in excel. No computer here or I would.
4 aces
Choose 2 of 12 ranks for the other 2 cards minus the 2 ways to make a straight.
15 suits combinations for the 2 cards.
Thanks, Miplet!
0.173755656 is the result.
I was close, don't know what I did wrong.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
October 21st, 2013 at 3:35:50 PM
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^^^
Yep, that's right. Leading to 3840/22100 = 0.1737556561
You double counted somewhere Mission.
Yep, that's right. Leading to 3840/22100 = 0.1737556561
You double counted somewhere Mission.
October 21st, 2013 at 3:43:29 PM
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I didn't subtract something that I should have, or had a formula wrong.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
October 21st, 2013 at 3:56:48 PM
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Quote: Mission146I didn't subtract something that I should have, or had a formula wrong.
Straights (Ace-high AND Ace-low: changes in bold) minus straight flushes:
((4/52 * 8/51 * 4/50) - (4/52 * 2/51 * 1/50)) * 3 * 2 = 0.005429864
October 21st, 2013 at 4:04:31 PM
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Quote:Straights w/Ace less Straight Flushes:
((4/52 * 8/51 * 7/50) - (4/52 * 2/51 * 1/50)) * 3 = 0.004886877828054299
Should be:
(4/52 * 16/51 * 4/50) - (4/52 * 4/51 * 1/50)) * 3= ???
A23 and AKQ are both straights.
Edit: yep typing on phone is slow. :+)
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
October 21st, 2013 at 4:44:32 PM
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Thanks again!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219