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Mission146
Mission146
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October 21st, 2013 at 2:48:26 PM permalink
Greetings!

If someone would be kind enough to verify this, I'd really appreciate it.

I'm determining the probability of an Ace-High hand with three cards dealt, but I don't want those that include Pairs, Straights, Trips or Flushes:

Ace High (Discludes Pairs/3OaK):

(4/52 * 48/51 * 47/50) * 3 = 0.20416289592760184

Okay, since 3Oak and Paired Aces are automatically out of that, I just need to subtract out Flushes, Straights and other Pairs:

Less All Flushes, Including Straight Flush:

0.20416289592760184 - ((4/52 * 12/51 * 11/50) * 3) = 0.19221719457013578

Now we carry the result:

Straights w/Ace less Straight Flushes:

((4/52 * 8/51 * 7/50) - (4/52 * 2/51 * 1/50)) * 3 = 0.004886877828054299

0.19221719457013578 - 0.004886877828054299 = 0.18733031674208148

Now we carry the result:

Less Any Other Pair:

0.18733031674208148 - ((4/52 * 48/51 * 3/50) *3) = 0.17429864253393668

Result

The probability of having an Ace-High with no hand that is a pair or better is 0.17429864253393668.

Sound right?
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
miplet
miplet
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October 21st, 2013 at 3:24:28 PM permalink
Type =4*(combin(12,2)-2)*15/combin(52,3) in excel. No computer here or I would.
4 aces
Choose 2 of 12 ranks for the other 2 cards minus the 2 ways to make a straight.
15 suits combinations for the 2 cards.
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
Mission146
Mission146
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October 21st, 2013 at 3:33:57 PM permalink
Quote: miplet

Type =4*(combin(12,2)-2)*15/combin(52,3) in excel. No computer here or I would.
4 aces
Choose 2 of 12 ranks for the other 2 cards minus the 2 ways to make a straight.
15 suits combinations for the 2 cards.



Thanks, Miplet!

0.173755656 is the result.

I was close, don't know what I did wrong.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
tringlomane
tringlomane
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October 21st, 2013 at 3:35:50 PM permalink
^^^

Yep, that's right. Leading to 3840/22100 = 0.1737556561

You double counted somewhere Mission.
Mission146
Mission146
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October 21st, 2013 at 3:43:29 PM permalink
I didn't subtract something that I should have, or had a formula wrong.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
tringlomane
tringlomane
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October 21st, 2013 at 3:56:48 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

I didn't subtract something that I should have, or had a formula wrong.



Straights (Ace-high AND Ace-low: changes in bold) minus straight flushes:

((4/52 * 8/51 * 4/50) - (4/52 * 2/51 * 1/50)) * 3 * 2 = 0.005429864
miplet
miplet
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October 21st, 2013 at 4:04:31 PM permalink
Quote:

Straights w/Ace less Straight Flushes:

((4/52 * 8/51 * 7/50) - (4/52 * 2/51 * 1/50)) * 3 = 0.004886877828054299


Should be:

(4/52 * 16/51 * 4/50) - (4/52 * 4/51 * 1/50)) * 3= ???

A23 and AKQ are both straights.

Edit: yep typing on phone is slow. :+)
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
Mission146
Mission146
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Joined: May 15, 2012
October 21st, 2013 at 4:44:32 PM permalink
Thanks again!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
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