Mikey75
Mikey75
Joined: Mar 1, 2013
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June 4th, 2013 at 8:22:01 PM permalink
What is the probability of 30 hands being dealt without a tie? In one of Wizard's replies to a question he states that the probability of 75 hands being dealt without a tie as "very unlikely". Could anyone actually give the probability of going 30 hands without a tie? I sat at the baccarat table for several hours, mostly charting, my last trip. The most hands I seen without a tie was 12. I know the house edge on the tie is high but I was wondering if it would be advantageous to play the tie if it hadn't hit in a certain number of hands. I know that one hand doesn't dictate what the next hand does and the deck will do its most remarkable feats when your money is on the table. Just wondering what the odds are for a string of hands without a tie.
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
Joined: Mar 11, 2010
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June 4th, 2013 at 8:24:27 PM permalink
I get about 5%.

edit: and about 1:1750 for 75 hands without a tie.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
sodawater
sodawater
Joined: May 14, 2012
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June 4th, 2013 at 8:25:54 PM permalink
If you took an 8-deck shoe, dealt exactly 1 hand, and then shuffled, the chance of 30 straight non-ties would be


(1-0.095156)^30 =0.04979793

I don't know what the answer would be for the same shoe with the card removal, but I am guessing it's very close.


Quote: Mikey75

know the house edge on the tie is high but I was wondering if it would be advantageous to play the tie if it hadn't hit in a certain number of hands.



Definitely no. The tie is always a bad bet unless you have been counting cards and realize that an extraordinary ratio of 10s remain in a very short deck. But I think Peter Griffin said that this would never come up in a lifetime of counting bacc shoes.

So basically, never bet the tie.
Mikey75
Mikey75
Joined: Mar 1, 2013
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June 5th, 2013 at 4:47:09 AM permalink
Thanks for the help guys!!
GBV
GBV
Joined: Jun 12, 2012
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June 7th, 2013 at 2:29:20 AM permalink
Quote: sodawater

If you took an 8-deck shoe, dealt exactly 1 hand, and then shuffled, the chance of 30 straight non-ties would be


(1-0.095156)^30 =0.04979793

I don't know what the answer would be for the same shoe with the card removal, but I am guessing it's very close.




Definitely no. The tie is always a bad bet unless you have been counting cards and realize that an extraordinary ratio of 10s remain in a very short deck. But I think Peter Griffin said that this would never come up in a lifetime of counting bacc shoes.

So basically, never bet the tie.



I'd be cautious about ignoring very small effects over a long series of trials because of the compound error.
egalite
egalite
Joined: Dec 30, 2011
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June 22nd, 2013 at 8:49:37 PM permalink
Quote: sodawater

So basically, never bet the tie.

each to his own opinion, if I have a reasonable bet on the Punto £200+ I sometimes bet the tie as a hedge (£15), I rarely hedge the Banco. This has enabled me to reduce my Punto bet many times (I've see a fair few 6 deck games producing 12 Ties per shoe).

If you thinking, it will miss more often than win, yes you would be right, however I track all those Tie bet wagers and recoup them later, via Banco or Punto bets, trust me they are recouped. Even if they come in, I still recoup them. Because I have already written it down as a losing bet before the cards are drawn, regardless <wink>.

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