Joined: Feb 24, 2011
• Posts: 2225
April 9th, 2014 at 7:43:48 AM permalink
Has anyone figured out what the hit rate of getting two pair or better is on this game?

How about hit rate for three of a kind or better to get paid on the bonus bet?

It just seems like this game is a lot of chasing that results in only getting paid 1 out 3-4 hands and in most of those you are going to push on the bonus bet.
tringlomane
Joined: Aug 25, 2012
• Posts: 6267
April 9th, 2014 at 8:03:02 AM permalink
Quote: ams288

This is at Monte Carlo in Vegas as well. Table min was always \$5. Table was always pretty full last weekend.

Time for wiz to do a page on it then?

I would like to see a strategy for the game myself.
ams288
Joined: Sep 26, 2012
• Posts: 5412
April 9th, 2014 at 8:08:48 AM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

Time for wiz to do a page on it then?

I would like to see a strategy for the game myself.

Yes, when I saw it at Monte I looked for it on the Wizard of Odds and saw it wasn't there so I didn't play. I don't like playing new games without having a general idea of a the strategy.
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
• Posts: 14230
April 9th, 2014 at 12:12:32 PM permalink
I've been fussing some with the numbers on this. As we all know, I'm no mathematician. Take these numbers with a whole shaker of salt; I'm using them logically as places to start, not definitive math.

However, DDP seems to have about a 36% hit rate (which is consistent with my experience with the game so far), and 2 pair is still a moneymaker, because all bets are equal units, and 2 pair pays on 3 of 4 bets and pushes on the 4th. According to Bally/SHFL marketing, 97% of dealt hands are worth the first draw, and 92% are worth the second. (each draw requires a 1x ante bet or fold at that point).

So 3% of the time, -2 units
5% of the time, -3 units
56% of the time, -4 units
36% of the time, +3 units +bonus (if any)

In a 9 card poker hand, 2 pair is the best possible result ~50% of the time. You're going to miss a lot of those going for better hands and splitting a pair, or discarding a card that you would have paired had you been able to select from all the cards you will see. So it would be a total swag on how many of those you can count v. higher ranked (and bonus paying cards) but,

With 2 bug jokers, (FH, 4OAK & 3OAK are estimated from 9 card poker returns without fully adding the effect of Jokers = Aces; all should be a bit higher)(Joker-heavy hands are from Double Joker VP probabilities crossed with DDP paytables; probably off as well because you can draw 4 or 5 initially, but somewhat balanced back by being able to switch hand strategy on the 2nd draw).

5 aces is .003208% for a return of .0160
Nat Royal is .002200% for a return of .0022
SF/Wild RF is .184500% for a return of .0923
4OAK is .620500% for a return of .1210
FH is 11.530438% for a return of .5765 (this number seems truly whack to me, but you're working with 9 cards, so 1 in 9 hands, I guess, is possible)
Flush is 1.9185% for a return of .0576
Straight is 3.4142% for a return of .06828
3OAK is 5.34929% for a return of .0535

So the return on the bonus bet is roughly .9873 and is probably an under-estimate (see notes above).

If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Joined: Feb 24, 2011
• Posts: 2225
April 9th, 2014 at 1:21:46 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

......However, DDP seems to have about a 36% hit rate (which is consistent with my experience with the game so far.....

I didn't quite follow how you got to this percentage.....my guess is this number is closer to 30%.
beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
• Posts: 14230
April 9th, 2014 at 1:51:27 PM permalink

I didn't quite follow how you got to this percentage.....my guess is this number is closer to 30%.

I looked at Double Joker Poker VP, which uses 2 full Jokers, as a rough guide at 37%, and the Bally/SHFL marketer said "a little better than 1 in 3 hit rate" when explaining the game to me, so I lowered the DJP number a little to extrapolate. Again, very rough numbers, and similar to my experience the last 8 hours of hands I played (I was using a different hold strategy and losing worse before I adapted). I realize that's a small sampling, though I'm including a full table's results for 7 of those 8 hours.

Your guess could be more accurate than mine, for sure.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Joined: Feb 24, 2011
• Posts: 2225
April 9th, 2014 at 2:11:17 PM permalink
Gotcha and that makes more sense now. You only have one draw opportunity in Double Joker Poker VP, correct?

Are the jokers in that VP game used similarly to how they are used in this table game? If so maybe the hit rate is north of the 36% in the table game version due to the double draw opportunity.

What is obvious is we need a real math guy/gal to get involved.....and I recall one of them saying the math in Double Draw is exceptionally cumbersome!

Until I know the math for this game and strategy, I will just watch others play.
beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
• Posts: 14230
April 9th, 2014 at 2:26:06 PM permalink

Gotcha and that makes more sense now. You only have one draw opportunity in Double Joker Poker VP, correct?

Are the jokers in that VP game used similarly to how they are used in this table game? If so maybe the hit rate is north of the 36% in the table game version due to the double draw opportunity.

What is obvious is we need a real math guy/gal to get involved.....and I recall one of them saying the math in Double Draw is exceptionally cumbersome!

Until I know the math for this game and strategy, I will just watch others play.

Definitely; I did ask the Wiz on here several months ago if he was willing to tackle it; he said at the time it's an eNORmous job, months if not a year or more, to crunch the numbers on it. I asked Bally/SHFL about it recently; they verified the math the inventors produced before they acquired it. So it's out there but may be proprietary.

The jokers are identical in application to PGP. But there are 2 of them; surprising how often they show up. That's why I used some of the VP numbers as pretty close (flush/straight/SF/RF/5Aces when divided out from 5OAK) because, maximum, you see 10 cards in VP, 9 in DDP, but going 3 then 1 has to be an advantage, as you can shift.

For example, I would think, under best strategy, you get A-Joker-xxx; you throw xxx and draw 3, going for aces (no SF draw w/A-Joker in discards, because that would be a better hold, I think, drawing 2 and 1). You draw another pair and x. Now you hold for 2 pair, not Aces, as a sure win, and throw x hoping for a FH, with an extra out with the other Joker in the deck. So you changed strategy in mid-stream, you get paid even though you didn't get the hand you started for, and you have an extra draw to improve (over VP, where you held the same 2 cards initially).
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
tringlomane
Joined: Aug 25, 2012
• Posts: 6267
April 9th, 2014 at 3:24:07 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

FH is 11.530438% for a return of .5765 (this number seems truly whack to me, but you're working with 9 cards, so 1 in 9 hands, I guess, is possible)

This number is somewhat optimistic i think. That 11.53% is for when you hold all 9 cards at once and only use 5. When you play this game, you can't grab your cards back out of the muck. Well I guess you could if you wanted to be dragged out by security...lol Now obviously you will be throwing away 3 singletons on the first draw a lot while holding a pair. When you toss those three singletons out while holding a pair you would expect to see a pair of one of those 3 singletons in the draw cards 3*3*42/C(47,3) = 2.33% of the time. That would be a full house in the 8 or 9 card stud game, but is only two pair here. You obviously can still improve the hand to a full house, but that only occurs 6/44 = 13.63% of the time. So probably a "better number" for a full house is closer to 0.1153 - 0.0233*(1-.1363) = 0.09518 = 9.518%.

I havent done the math to verify it, but I would have to think any 3 to SF is playable considering they said 97% of all hands were playable in the first place. The 50 to 1 payout is huge. Maybe any 2 to a SF...gulp.
FourFiveFace
Joined: Feb 26, 2012