FourFiveFace
FourFiveFace
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December 25th, 2012 at 7:10:33 PM permalink
Granted, this is anecdotal, but why does it seem like straight flushes hit quite a bit more often than 3 of a kinds? Mathematically, there's less combinations of them, that's why they pay out the most right? I know my ratio of straight flushes to 3 of a kinds are at least 2 to 1, maybe even 3 to 1. From what I've seen and heard, other people have had similar experiences.
tringlomane
tringlomane
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December 25th, 2012 at 7:29:10 PM permalink
Quote: FourFiveFace

Granted, this is anecdotal, but why does it seem like straight flushes hit quite a bit more often than 3 of a kinds? Mathematically, there's less combinations of them, that's why they pay out the most right? I know my ratio of straight flushes to 3 of a kinds are at least 2 to 1, maybe even 3 to 1. From what I've seen and heard, other people have had similar experiences.



How big is your sample? How many of each have you hit? They should hit roughly evenly. You should get 13 3 of a kinds for every 12 straight flushes on average. But a sample of 5 to 2 wouldn't be unlikely. I have played very little 3 card poker and never hit either at it, but I did get 3 of a kind on the 3-card bonus bet of the old game "Boston 5". It actually had the 1-4-6-30-40 paytable. I've never got a straight flush in the game, so my experience is opposite to yours.
sodawater
sodawater
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December 25th, 2012 at 8:25:49 PM permalink
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Last edited by: sodawater on Oct 1, 2018
Paigowdan
Paigowdan
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December 25th, 2012 at 9:54:21 PM permalink
Quote: FourFiveFace

Granted, this is anecdotal, but why does it seem like straight flushes hit quite a bit more often than 3 of a kinds? Mathematically, there's less combinations of them, that's why they pay out the most right? I know my ratio of straight flushes to 3 of a kinds are at least 2 to 1, maybe even 3 to 1. From what I've seen and heard, other people have had similar experiences.



Actually, they are "almost" equally occuring the Three Card Poker, very close.

It is 1 in 460 hands for straight flushes, and 1 in 425 hands for three-of-a-kinds, in Three Card poker.

It's almost like there should be 11 three-of-a-kinds for every 12 straight flushes, almost equally rare.
It is anecdotal; deal for a while, and you will see them pop up about as often as one another.
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
boymimbo
boymimbo
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December 25th, 2012 at 11:05:29 PM permalink
I think there are 48 (12*4) straight flushes and 52 trips (13*4) available in a 3CP game over a total of 22,100 combinations (52*51*50/6), so PaiGow's odds are right.

In the end, the odds of either are 221:1.

Because of the statistical variance, it's quite possible that you would see SFs over Trips as anecdotal evidence.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
RogerKint
RogerKint
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December 25th, 2012 at 11:44:59 PM permalink
Hit three 7s 30 minutes ago with 100 on the ante and zero on the pair plus. Everyone at the full table simultaneously started cursing me in their native languages. Thought I might be lynched for a second there. After approximately 15,000 hands of 3cp I have hit twice as many straight flushes as 3oak's.
100% risk of ruin
tringlomane
tringlomane
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December 26th, 2012 at 5:42:48 AM permalink
Quote: RogerKint

Hit three 7s 30 minutes ago with 100 on the ante and zero on the pair plus. Everyone at the full table simultaneously started cursing me in their native languages. Thought I might be lynched for a second there. After approximately 15,000 hands of 3cp I have hit twice as many straight flushes as 3oak's.



Really? With a sample that large, it's pretty unlikely you'd still have a 2 to 1 ratio, I would think. Do you know how many of each you have? And this is why I really don't play 3 card poker anymore. Placing money on Pair Plus with the 1-3-6-30-40 paytable is just unacceptable to me.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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December 26th, 2012 at 7:39:45 AM permalink
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DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Mosca
Mosca
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December 26th, 2012 at 7:53:57 AM permalink
I've hit far more straight flushes, but I did hit the three of a kinds back to back once.
NO KILL I
tringlomane
tringlomane
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December 26th, 2012 at 7:59:02 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Checking my records for the last two months I have 38 straight flushes and only 35 three of a kinds.



But this is much more representative of a 15k hand sample. Having 46 straight flushes and 23 three of a kinds (what a 2:1 ratio could look like over 15k hands) is much less likely. I would be surprised if it was > 5% likely. If I get bored enough, I might bother to try to simulate it.

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