UTH again

Here's something I can't figure out:

There are some hands, that are a higher than 50% favorite against a random hand, that have less EV raising compard to checking. (eg. 22, T8s, ...) Why ist that?

If I look at the play bet independently, it is a wager in a spot with a higher than 50% chance of winning = +EV vs. not betting in that spot = EV neutral.

Thanks for you input!

Quote: Canyonero

Here's something I can't figure out:

There are some hands, that are a higher than 50% favorite against a random hand, that have less EV raising compard to checking. (eg. 22, T8s, ...) Why ist that?

If I look at the play bet independently, it is a wager in a spot with a higher than 50% chance of winning = +EV vs. not betting in that spot = EV neutral.

Thanks for you input!

Checking is not EV-neutral. You have the option of betting or checking the flop (when you have more information). That option has value.

Realistically, this only makes a difference in very borderline situations, because you are not getting THAT MUCH information from the flop. Betting every time you had any edge at all would be sub-optimal, but not by much.

However, if there was a game with a similar structure where you got a lot more information before making your next decision, it might be true that it's better to check a +EV situation even in a non-borderline case. Imagine a table game based on the Wizard's one-card poker game:

You get a card. You can "raise" 4x your ante, or check. Then the dealer flips over his card. If you checked before, you now have the option of "calling" 3x your ante, or folding. Come up with an optimal strategy for this game (it's not hard -- there are only 13 possible hands and only 2 numbers to compare for each one). Note that the optimal strategy is not betting 4x every time you have anything higher than an 8, even though it would be +EV. For many hands, checking is + more EV. For example, if you 4x bet an 9, you will win 28 times, push 3 times, and lose 20 times for every 51 attempts. That's an EV of 4 x 8 / 51 = 32 / 51 on the play bet. On the other hand, if you check, and then only bet if you are winning or pushing, you will still win 28 times, but never lose so your EV is 3 x 28 / 51 = 84 / 51 on the same play bet. You have raised your EV by a little more than 1 full bet by checking instead of betting.

In a game like UTH, the information is not as valuable, so the effect is not as extreme, but the concept is the same. Basically, the option NOT to bet after seeing the flop might be worth more than the slight pre-flop edge.

That was an excellent explanation, thank you very much!