Buzzard
Buzzard
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December 12th, 2012 at 8:45:33 AM permalink
The wording is a little ambiguous, but could be read that way, I guess.

Rough is right, especially when on a winning streak, betting more than the minimum, and seeing your profits greatly diminished
by the poker bet.

Still waiting for an answer in the difference between the rules and the felt on S17 or H17.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
CRMousseau
CRMousseau
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December 12th, 2012 at 9:49:42 AM permalink
The rules and presentation could definitely benefit from some polish, which is where I'm thinking that a distribution company might do a world of good.

To answer Buzz's question, I have done math for both variants, I believe the inventor was going to go with S17 primarily as he is native to the AC area.

To speak to the criticisms about the game:

I really don't see how the Super Bonus return is so bad. At around -25%, it's actually a better "mandatory side bet" than the Blind Bet in UTH, which is around -31%. For those who asked, the 6D distribution is 70.8% loss, 19.5% push and 9.7% win. This was thought to be better than an 80% loss / 20% win, which would be in line with most standard sidebets.

The return on the main game is well over 22%. Bear in mind naturals pay 3:2, and in general, the hand setting decision is trivial. Ace-Ten-(any) is a fairly common and very profitable hand, and needless to say ATT or AAT is a goldmine.

I agree that setting the table limit too high would be a huge disaster for this game. Average bet size for this game is around 4 units, anything more than $5 min would be a disaster, at least starting out.
miplet
miplet
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December 12th, 2012 at 9:50:44 AM permalink
Quote: Paradigm

Buzz, I think the way you decide which hand to play first is based on how you set the cards.

The hand to the Player's right will receive the first hit card, so that is how they "decide which hand will be played first".

I agree with you on the three mandatory wagers and one being a low hit rate, tough poker pay table. I think the "hit rate" on the poker bet is less than 10%, but I am sure Charles can give us the exact amounts. PP in TCP has a 25.6% hit rate, but almost 17% of that is tied up in the "pair" payout. That only pushes in this paytable, which in my opinion is not a "hit". So you drop to sub 10%.....that is rough!


I'm too lazy to make this an actual table. Hope there are no brainos and/or typos.
Event	Combinations	Probability        	Pays 	Return
mini royal 864 0.000172340883885 150 0.025851132582799
trips suited 1040 0.000207447360232 100 0.020744736023234
straightflush 9504 0.001895749722739 40 0.075829988909545
trips 25272 0.005040970853646 25 0.126024271341147
flush with pair 56160 0.011202157452546 6 0.067212944715278
straight 155520 0.031021359099359 3 0.093064077298078
flush 236736 0.047221402184580 1 0.04722140218458
pair 977184 0.194917539674308 0 0
loser 3551040 0.708321032768704 -1 -0.708321032768704
Total 5013320 1 -0.252372479714042
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
CRMousseau
CRMousseau
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December 12th, 2012 at 9:55:09 AM permalink
You are correct miplet. I included a screen grab from my report mostly to get the aforementioned reports, and also to see if you care to double check my 8D numbers. But also to get opinions on my color scheme ;)

Buzzard
Buzzard
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December 12th, 2012 at 9:56:16 AM permalink
" I agree that setting the table limit too high would be a huge disaster for this game. Average bet size for this game is around 4 units, anything more than $5 min would be a disaster, at least starting out. "

Keeping my fingers crossed, but I would expect to see $10 or $15 minimum on weekends. Just the way things are done !

" I really don't see how the Super Bonus return is so bad. "

Not so much about return as long streaks with nothing but pushes and losses. After about 10 or 12 of those, players might not be too
happy.

One final point. Any thoughts about making the mandatory poker bet the table minimum, rather than equal to the BJ bets. Just asking ?
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
Buzzard
Buzzard
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December 12th, 2012 at 9:58:39 AM permalink
Nice charts ! How about one showing streaks without a hand that does something more than push ?
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
CRMousseau
CRMousseau
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December 12th, 2012 at 10:18:03 AM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

" I really don't see how the Super Bonus return is so bad. "

Not so much about return as long streaks with nothing but pushes and losses. After about 10 or 12 of those, players might not be too
happy.



In addition to this side bet, they are playing a main game where they get to make a two unit bet with an overall advantage of 11% of the total bet amount. Do you really think players will really never have a hand in 10 or 12 where they don't win 2 or more units on the main game?

If you're talking about "just on the mandatory side bet", again, no worse than the distribution of the blind bet

Quote:

One final point. Any thoughts about making the mandatory poker bet the table minimum, rather than equal to the BJ bets. Just asking ?



It would be entirely impossible. You have to compensate for an expected win of 22% of the betting unit. Rather trivial to bet table min on poker and even 10x on the main game, mopping up like a madman.
miplet
miplet
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December 12th, 2012 at 10:35:29 AM permalink
Quote: CRMousseau

You are correct miplet. I included a screen grab from my report mostly to get the aforementioned reports, and also to see if you care to double check my 8D numbers. But also to get opinions on my color scheme ;)


Yep, 8 decks are good. Color scheme is good too. Heck, I'd even play the game if it makes it out here.
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
Buzzard
Buzzard
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December 12th, 2012 at 10:58:23 AM permalink
"In addition to this side bet, they are playing a main game where they get to make a two unit bet with an overall advantage of 11% of the total bet amount. "

I did not realize the advantage was that high. Not a math guy, but then most players aren't either. Just concerned about players thinking the mandatory bet is some kind of punishment after seeing it go long periods without a payout, that's all.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
CRMousseau
CRMousseau
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December 12th, 2012 at 11:27:48 AM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

In addition to this side bet, they are playing a main game where they get to make a two unit bet with an overall advantage of 11% of the total bet amount.

I did not realize the advantage was that high. Not a math guy, but then most players aren't either. Just concerned about players thinking the mandatory bet is some kind of punishment after seeing it go long periods without a payout, that's all.



Believe me, it's massive. The overall return on the two hands is over 22%. I'm hoping it will be similar to BJ Switch in that people will intuitively see how powerful it can be, as opposed to (say) their inability to see how powerful the 4x and 2x bets are in UTH.

A quick look at the spreadsheet shows that (in the main game alone) 16.25% of starting hands have an EV of greater than 1.0 units. They are essentially A-X-? hands (12.45%), or the 3.5%-ish hands that can make two hard 10 / hard 11 doubles (i.e. 447 vs 3 = 1.04 units)

As for players seeing this as a punishment.. do they see the UTH Blind Bet as punishment? The smart ones do, of course, but they are drawn to UTH because it's actually relatively challenging to play. Hopefully they will see something similar in PC21

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