Ultimate Hold'em
This has become my game of choice after reading The Wizards page regarding it, and the link to discountgamblings blog regarding the optimal play.
Just talking a bit about this game before I ask some questions. I find that no one in the Casino will play the game anywhere close to optimal play. I frequently have dealers/players laugh at me when I bet 4x with my K/5 suited, even cards like Q/10 off. Another player who plays quite often like I do, is pretty close, but he will bet 4x with a Queen or higher in his hand, and never if he has just a Jack...even a Jack/10 suited is off limits for him. His game is still by far better than anyone else who sits at the table other than mine of course. I do have a few questions for some readers on these forums, some of which I have noticed are very good math wise.
1. Most people I see play will bet a pair of Pocket 7's or better 4x, that is all. They wait for the flop with hands like Ace/King, and will check to the river if they don't pair the board, even checking if they have a small pair, maybe 2-6. They also play the trips bet every hand. I know those details are pretty vague, but for people who play the game like that, where do you think the house edge stands, roughly?
2. The Wizard lists the element of risk at 0.5 and change. Element of risk = House Edge?
3. I learned the 100% optimal play from this site http://discountgambling.net/2010/02/26/session-outcome-distributions-for-ultimate-texas-holdem/#comment-393.
In that particular article he has a section that says this.
200 Ante Bankroll, Leave if Win 20 Antes or Bust-Out, 250 Hands Max
"Say you have a big bankroll, are happy to hit-and-run after winning 20 Antes (i.e., $100 in a $5 Ante game), and are willing to grind out 250 hands. In this case, you have a 69% chance of making your $100, an overall 70% chance of winning, and only a 0.2% chance of busting out. The remaining 30% of the time, you’ll fall somewhere in-between".
I do not have a math backround, I simply trust in what others (like The Wizard) tell me about my odds regarding specific wagers. I don't know if that quote is a fair statement, but after reading it I'm inclined to believe that with the discipline (leaving after $100 up as stated) that this game over the long run is a winning game. I'm curious as to whether or not that is a fair statement, and if not, could someone explain why?
Quote: UltimateHoldem...some of which I have noticed are very good math wise.
I'm not but I'll chime in anyway :)
Quote: UltimateHoldem
1. Most people I see play will bet a pair of Pocket 7's or better 4x, that is all. They wait for the flop with hands like Ace/King, and will check to the river if they don't pair the board, even checking if they have a small pair, maybe 2-6. They also play the trips bet every hand. I know those details are pretty vague, but for people who play the game like that, where do you think the house edge stands, roughly?
For a really bad player, I would say around 10-15% (always checks to the river, never folds, big money on trips). For the so-so player, 5-10% H.A. For the skilled player, 2-5%.
Quote: UltimateHoldem
2. The Wizard lists the element of risk at 0.5 and change. Element of risk = House Edge?
The element of risk is the house edge relative to the amount of total money bet. Since if you play correctly your average bet is around 4 units, the house edge on total money wagered is less than .5%. The "pure" house edge is a little more than 2%. That is, you loss 2% on every ante bet no matter what.
Quote: UltimateHoldem
3. I learned the 100% optimal play from this site http://discountgambling.net/2010/02/26/session-outcome-distributions-for-ultimate-texas-holdem/#comment-393.
In that particular article he has a section that says this.
200 Ante Bankroll, Leave if Win 20 Antes or Bust-Out, 250 Hands Max
"Say you have a big bankroll, are happy to hit-and-run after winning 20 Antes (i.e., $100 in a $5 Ante game), and are willing to grind out 250 hands. In this case, you have a 69% chance of making your $100, an overall 70% chance of winning, and only a 0.2% chance of busting out. The remaining 30% of the time, you’ll fall somewhere in-between".
I do not have a math backround, I simply trust in what others (like The Wizard) tell me about my odds regarding specific wagers. I don't know if that quote is a fair statement, but after reading it I'm inclined to believe that with the discipline (leaving after $100 up as stated) that this game over the long run is a winning game. I'm curious as to whether or not that is a fair statement, and if not, could someone explain why?
It is definitely not a winning game over the long run just by itself. However, as Mr. Discount Gambling relates, there are positive E.V. situations, for example he gets more in cashback than the expected loss of play, so in the long run he should come out a winner.
