2 to 1 Baccarat
July 18th, 2012 at 9:18:16 AM
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The Crown casino in Melbourne has a baccarat variant that is the same as normal baccarat except:
1. 3-card wins on the Banker and Player with 8 or 9 pay 2 to 1.
2. Ties lose.
3. No commission on any winning Banker bets.
I find this to be far inferior to conventional baccarat. Here is are the odds.
Player
Banker
Source: Crown baccarat rules (see page 5).
Questions, corrections, or comments?
1. 3-card wins on the Banker and Player with 8 or 9 pay 2 to 1.
2. Ties lose.
3. No commission on any winning Banker bets.
I find this to be far inferior to conventional baccarat. Here is are the odds.
Player
| Win | Combinations | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 356,212,163,551,232 | 0.071265 | 0.142531 |
| 1 | 1,874,306,119,041,020 | 0.374981 | 0.374981 |
| -1 | 2,767,879,992,911,100 | 0.553753 | -0.553753 |
| Total | 4,998,398,275,503,360 | 1.000000 | -0.036242 |
Banker
| Win | Combinations | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 304,079,683,551,232 | 0.060835 | 0.121671 |
| 1 | 1,988,172,882,886,660 | 0.397762 | 0.397762 |
| -1 | 2,706,145,709,065,470 | 0.541403 | -0.541403 |
| Total | 4,998,398,275,503,360 | 1.000000 | -0.021970 |
Source: Crown baccarat rules (see page 5).
Questions, corrections, or comments?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
July 18th, 2012 at 9:39:40 AM
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Appears possibly countable. Like the Dragon bet, once the 8s and 9s are depleted, then a 3-card hand is far more likely. Any 3-card final total is preferable to any 2-card final total. Most likely 6s and 7s are also good cards to see go from the shoe. However "Ties lose" is very strong. You already have the Panda software which should apply here; I would be curious to see your results for advantage play on this one.Quote: WizardThe Crown casino in Melbourne has a baccarat variant that is the same as normal baccarat except:
1. 3-card wins on the Banker and Player with 8 or 9 pay 2 to 1.
2. Ties lose.
3. No commission on any winning Banker bets.
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July 18th, 2012 at 9:43:46 AM
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Seems like an attempt to increase the player volatility experience from traditional baccarat but it comes at a pretty significant cost in house advantage.
I assume the Tie bet is still available, just that Player & Banker main bets both lose on Ties......is that correct?
I think that increased volatility is better achieved in Baccarat via a side bet than this main bet pay adjustment. The Player Side Dragon Bonus has a house edge of 2.65% (per WoO) and provides the player a much better "volatility" option that can be accessed by players when they feel "lucky" or on every hand if that is the desire.
This variant forces the player to an increased volatility baccarat main bet every hand for a max payout of 2 to 1.....not sure that makes sense for the players.
Also, for what it is worth, having players lose any money on ties or push hands was a major flaw of Easy Over Under during my field trial last year (don't get me wrong....there were other flaws in the game, but this was one I heard about from players which makes it significant to me). I would imagine losing on ties will not go over well with baccarat players either.
Any idea how long the game has been in play?
I assume the Tie bet is still available, just that Player & Banker main bets both lose on Ties......is that correct?
I think that increased volatility is better achieved in Baccarat via a side bet than this main bet pay adjustment. The Player Side Dragon Bonus has a house edge of 2.65% (per WoO) and provides the player a much better "volatility" option that can be accessed by players when they feel "lucky" or on every hand if that is the desire.
This variant forces the player to an increased volatility baccarat main bet every hand for a max payout of 2 to 1.....not sure that makes sense for the players.
Also, for what it is worth, having players lose any money on ties or push hands was a major flaw of Easy Over Under during my field trial last year (don't get me wrong....there were other flaws in the game, but this was one I heard about from players which makes it significant to me). I would imagine losing on ties will not go over well with baccarat players either.
Any idea how long the game has been in play?
July 18th, 2012 at 9:47:03 AM
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Okay, so its probably got a big sign about "No Commission" and probably that 2:1 signage is pretty large too.
The main rule change is that there are No Tie Bets....
So Player's choice is reduced from THREE bets to Two.
Dealer's actions are all eliminated for keeping track of commissions. No Lammers, No lectures, No questions, No training, No supervision, no time proving up commissions or commission payments.
Players play faster, Dealer plays even faster with none of those commission lammers for the "we payout Banker at 20:20 but play with tiny little lammers that change the payout to 19:20 when you leave the table".
So how much has speed increased?
How are the players COMPED in this variant?
And I trust someone will post the difference between "real" and "variant" and then we can start quibbling about whether this is morally correct for a casino to do.
The main rule change is that there are No Tie Bets....
So Player's choice is reduced from THREE bets to Two.
Dealer's actions are all eliminated for keeping track of commissions. No Lammers, No lectures, No questions, No training, No supervision, no time proving up commissions or commission payments.
Players play faster, Dealer plays even faster with none of those commission lammers for the "we payout Banker at 20:20 but play with tiny little lammers that change the payout to 19:20 when you leave the table".
So how much has speed increased?
How are the players COMPED in this variant?
And I trust someone will post the difference between "real" and "variant" and then we can start quibbling about whether this is morally correct for a casino to do.
July 18th, 2012 at 9:47:58 AM
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i can't imagine there is much of a market for this game among anyone who enjoys baccarat,
personally, i hate every side bet and variation of the classic games.
just give me straight baccarat, 3:2 S17 BJ w/surrender,
euro roulette, craps with no props, and pai gow tiles, & i am happy.
personally, i hate every side bet and variation of the classic games.
just give me straight baccarat, 3:2 S17 BJ w/surrender,
euro roulette, craps with no props, and pai gow tiles, & i am happy.
In a bet, there is a fool and a thief.
- Proverb.
July 18th, 2012 at 9:54:38 AM
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Quote: WizardI find this to be fair inferior to conventional baccarat.
"Fair inferior" ???
Considering it doubles the Banker house edge and triples the Player house edge, I find it far inferior and not even close to fair.
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
July 18th, 2012 at 9:57:37 AM
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Quote: teliotI would be curious to see your results for advantage play on this one.
Oh boy, I see a poop storm brewing. Before I start down that road, can anybody verify they still offer this game? I hear it may be in the Perth casino as well.
Somebody asked about the tie. The same document I linked to says it pays the usual 8 to 1. It also says they place the cut card 13 cards from the end.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
July 18th, 2012 at 10:00:32 AM
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Quote: ParadigmI assume the Tie bet is still available, just that Player & Banker main bets both lose on Ties......is that correct?
Unless I overlooked something...Quote: FleaStiffThe main rule change is that there are No Tie Bets....
So Player's choice is reduced from THREE bets to Two.
Page 27 of the PDF that the Wiz linked to has the payouts for the 2 to 1 version we're talking about, and it clearly shows that the tie bet is still available, paying 8 to 1.
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
July 18th, 2012 at 3:30:06 PM
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If I'm understanding it correctly, ties cause Banker and Player bets to lose, rather than push. That's a pretty big difference between this game and proper Baccarat (definitely enough to turn me off to it). But the Tie bet still exists and can be bet on, and pays at 8:1 rather than the higher 9:1 occasionally seen in brick and mortar casinos and almost universally encountered in online games.
How do you sell this game? Regular Baccarat players probably wouldn't like it, and Baccarat is hard enough to get new players interested in without making it into a different game.
How do you sell this game? Regular Baccarat players probably wouldn't like it, and Baccarat is hard enough to get new players interested in without making it into a different game.
July 18th, 2012 at 3:35:28 PM
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Quote: heatherHow do you sell this game?
The same way you sell 6 to 5 blackjack. You don't have to -- just put it out there. Maybe they have it at a lower minimum. However, even at the same minimum as regular baccarat, I assure you players will play it. For the same reason you see $25 6-5 blackjack players, when there are plenty of 3-2 games at that price. They just don't know any better.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
July 18th, 2012 at 7:48:17 PM
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Quote: WizardOh boy, I see a poop storm brewing. Before I start down that road, can anybody verify they still offer this game? I hear it may be in the Perth casino as well.
Somebody asked about the tie. The same document I linked to says it pays the usual 8 to 1. It also says they place the cut card 13 cards from the end.
Yes they still have this game. It is offered more on their lower limits. Anything below about a $30 minimum will likely be this game. I has never been to Perth casino but thy are both owned by Crown Ltd so it's likely they also have it.
July 18th, 2012 at 8:38:52 PM
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Quote: WizardThe same way you sell 6 to 5 blackjack. You don't have to -- just put it out there. Maybe they have it at a lower minimum. However, even at the same minimum as regular baccarat, I assure you players will play it. For the same reason you see $25 6-5 blackjack players, when there are plenty of 3-2 games at that price. They just don't know any better.
You must be mistaken Wiz the number 6 & 5 are 2 and 2 1/2 larger than 3 & 2. Or am i missing something ?
July 19th, 2012 at 7:38:57 AM
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I just wrote a new page on 2 to 1 Baccarat. I welcome all comments.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
July 19th, 2012 at 8:13:54 AM
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I just finished computing the EOR's. Though this wager is countable, it appears to not be worth the effort. At first glance, the edges are rare and insignificant.
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July 19th, 2012 at 8:24:29 AM
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Quote: teliotI just finished computing the EOR's. Though this wager is countable, it appears to not be worth the effort. At first glance, the edges are rare and insignificant.
Thanks for looking into it, and saving me the trouble. Now I won't bother with it.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
July 20th, 2012 at 5:01:26 PM
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I've only been to the Crown once and can understand they're looking at ways to changing well known games to add a house edge. When I went there it was a large busy casino.
One of the advantages of this variant is that it uses whole bets only, so removes the need for the casino to have smaller value chips.
btw Looking at the banker bet I suspect there's a transcription error due to losing the last digit (my spreadsheet can't handle 16 digit numbers) and comparing the two figures (...232, ...660) with the win total for regular Baccarat (...888) and (...256, ...216) with (...470).
One of the advantages of this variant is that it uses whole bets only, so removes the need for the casino to have smaller value chips.
btw Looking at the banker bet I suspect there's a transcription error due to losing the last digit (my spreadsheet can't handle 16 digit numbers) and comparing the two figures (...232, ...660) with the win total for regular Baccarat (...888) and (...256, ...216) with (...470).
July 20th, 2012 at 5:25:18 PM
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Quote: charliepatrickbtw Looking at the banker bet I suspect there's a transcription error due to losing the last digit .
Oy. That is a problem with lots of my tables. Excel can only add numbers up to 15 digits. Anything after that becomes a zero. I need to fix such errors by hand.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
July 20th, 2012 at 5:35:39 PM
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Not when one uses an Add-In like xlPrecisionQuote: WizardExcel can only add numbers up to 15 digits. Anything after that becomes a zero. I need to fix such errors by hand.
http://precisioncalc.com/xlprecision.html
I have used, not that often, the free version with excellent results.
I know of others that do some wild precision needed calculations in Excel also, that is how I heard of it.
I am sure there are other like programs avaviable
I Heart Vi Hart
December 16th, 2012 at 6:46:31 AM
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This variant disappeared for about a month and is now back. Minimum is $25 which is the same minimum as regular mini Baccarat (8 decks). Squeezing of the cards is not allowed.
Note: Commission Baccarat is only found in the high-rollers rooms in Melbourne. On the main floor it's either 2 to 1 or half price 6.
Does anyone know if there is a lot of difference in going from a shoe of 8 decks to a continuous shuffler? They are trialling this on one mini table in the low limit room. Seeing "Game 390" on the display was a bit of a shock!
Note: Commission Baccarat is only found in the high-rollers rooms in Melbourne. On the main floor it's either 2 to 1 or half price 6.
Does anyone know if there is a lot of difference in going from a shoe of 8 decks to a continuous shuffler? They are trialling this on one mini table in the low limit room. Seeing "Game 390" on the display was a bit of a shock!
December 16th, 2012 at 9:05:43 AM
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Are there any tables where it is dealt from a shoe?Quote: kebabaThis variant disappeared for about a month and is now back. Minimum is $25 which is the same minimum as regular mini Baccarat (8 decks). Squeezing of the cards is not allowed.
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December 16th, 2012 at 1:02:09 PM
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I did some preliminary testing for advantage play. This 2-to-1 version is NOT vulnerable to card counting in any meaningful way. The effect of removal for the Banker side range from +0.014% (remove 2) to -0.021% (remove 8). The effect of removal for the Player side range from +0.016% (remove 6) to -0.030% (remove 4). Compared to the baseline house edges of 2.1970% (Banker) and 3.6242% (Player), it's not even close.
I am yet to find a baccarat variant that has anything less than a microscopic card counting vulnerability.
I am yet to find a baccarat variant that has anything less than a microscopic card counting vulnerability.
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December 16th, 2012 at 1:07:27 PM
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Not this time.Quote: WizardOh boy, I see a poop storm brewing.
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December 17th, 2012 at 2:38:20 AM
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Quote: teliotAre there any tables where it is dealt from a shoe?
Currently all Baccarat games (Commission, 2 to 1, half price banker 6) are dealt from a 8 deck shoe. However they are trialling one table (half price banker 6) with a continuous shuffler.
