MLB picks
July 5th, 2012 at 6:45:21 AM
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Wow. Yesterday sucked. It was a net loss of -501 and left our YTD in the red at -62. The +130 dogs had a net loss of -49 and its YTD is now a net win of +504. The 2Xs plays were a loser for -352 and its YTD is now -414. Damn Diamondbacks.................
Yesterday's loss of -501 was our worst day since 05/11.
We have now had 3 consecutive losing days. In the 21 days since I had altered the formula to include a couple of pitching stats we have had several 4 day streaks. We first had a 4 day winning streak from 06/17 thru 06/20. We then had a 4 day losing streak from 06/23 thru 06/27. Followed by a 4 day winning streak from 06/28 thru 07/01. Does this portend a losing day today and a winning day tomorrow? We'll see.........
Today's picks are:
Milwaukee Brewers -128 (2 UNITS)
Cincinnati Reds -136
Yesterday's loss of -501 was our worst day since 05/11.
We have now had 3 consecutive losing days. In the 21 days since I had altered the formula to include a couple of pitching stats we have had several 4 day streaks. We first had a 4 day winning streak from 06/17 thru 06/20. We then had a 4 day losing streak from 06/23 thru 06/27. Followed by a 4 day winning streak from 06/28 thru 07/01. Does this portend a losing day today and a winning day tomorrow? We'll see.........
Today's picks are:
Milwaukee Brewers -128 (2 UNITS)
Cincinnati Reds -136
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
July 6th, 2012 at 3:58:30 AM
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Interesting. We did have another losing day. The 4th. in a row. If the pattern holds, today should be a winner (fingers crossed.....luv patterns).
Yesterday was a loss of -392 and YTD is now -454. There were no +130dogs and the 2Xs plays lost -256 with its YTD now at -670.
Today's picks are:
Atlanta Braves -127
San Francisco Giants 132
Kansas City Royals 155
New York Yankees -102
Chicago Cubs 156
Minnesota Twins 132
Yesterday was a loss of -392 and YTD is now -454. There were no +130dogs and the 2Xs plays lost -256 with its YTD now at -670.
Today's picks are:
Atlanta Braves -127
San Francisco Giants 132
Kansas City Royals 155
New York Yankees -102
Chicago Cubs 156
Minnesota Twins 132
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
July 7th, 2012 at 7:00:29 AM
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True to the recent pattern, we did indeed have a winning day yesterday. A good one. We had a net win of +520 and that brought our YTD to +66. Our +130dogs had a good day with a win of +320 and its YTD is now +824. There were no 2Xs plays.
Today's picks are:
Washington Nationals -200 (2 UNITS)
Chicago Cubs 135
Tampa Bay Rays 110
Minnesota Twins 180
Los Angeles Dodgers 142
Today's picks are:
Washington Nationals -200 (2 UNITS)
Chicago Cubs 135
Tampa Bay Rays 110
Minnesota Twins 180
Los Angeles Dodgers 142
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
July 7th, 2012 at 11:47:19 PM
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Yikes!
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
July 8th, 2012 at 8:42:03 AM
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Yesterday was a net loss of -200 which took our YTD to -134. The damn +130dogs went 0 for 3 and a net loss of -300 and its YTD is now +524. The 2Xs plays were the only winner yesterday for +200 and its YTD is now -470.
Today's picks are:
Kansas City Royals 163
Seattle Mariners -113
Minnesota Twins 170
Also, Buzz Paff is almost always right!
Today's picks are:
Kansas City Royals 163
Seattle Mariners -113
Minnesota Twins 170
Also, Buzz Paff is almost always right!
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
July 8th, 2012 at 8:49:29 AM
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No, but I sure am lucky LOL Hope you recover your losses and more today !
July 8th, 2012 at 11:54:41 AM
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Keep this up, I just read the whole thing. Interesting system.
July 8th, 2012 at 1:28:11 PM
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Many things to both buzz paff and ahawk65. Failure here won't be because of a lack of effort. Time will tell. Thanks again.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
July 8th, 2012 at 1:59:02 PM
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Sorry. Meant to say "many thanks". Not "many things"...............lol. Damn.......just gettin' older and dumber........cocktail hour yet?
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
July 9th, 2012 at 4:26:36 AM
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Not a good way to end the 1st. half of the baseball season. We had a net loss of -313 yesterday which left our YTD at -447. The +130dogs had a net loss of -200 and its YTD is now +324. The 2Xs plays ended with a YTD of -470.
Just as a recap, and to judge progress in this process, I have the following data:
Year to Date (since the first pick on 04/15) we have a net loss of -447.
Since 04/26/12 (date of first major change in formula) we have a net win of +748, having made 360 picks and a record of 179 wins and 181 losses. 49.72%
Since 06/14/12 (date of second major change in formula with additional pitching stats) we have a net win of +664, having made 88 picks and a record of 46 wins and 42 losses. 52.27%
It looks like positive progress. It's a damn shame that the early +130dog results haven't held up. We ended the first half with a 2 day losing streak. It would have bee interesting to see if the streak would have extended to 4 and ended again.
Anyway, I look forward to a better 2nd. half and a need to spot another trend with which I can help improve our record.
Just as a recap, and to judge progress in this process, I have the following data:
Year to Date (since the first pick on 04/15) we have a net loss of -447.
Since 04/26/12 (date of first major change in formula) we have a net win of +748, having made 360 picks and a record of 179 wins and 181 losses. 49.72%
Since 06/14/12 (date of second major change in formula with additional pitching stats) we have a net win of +664, having made 88 picks and a record of 46 wins and 42 losses. 52.27%
It looks like positive progress. It's a damn shame that the early +130dog results haven't held up. We ended the first half with a 2 day losing streak. It would have bee interesting to see if the streak would have extended to 4 and ended again.
Anyway, I look forward to a better 2nd. half and a need to spot another trend with which I can help improve our record.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
July 13th, 2012 at 5:14:01 AM
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Since nobody played yesterday and the formula is weighted towards stats of the last game played, there are no picks today.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
July 14th, 2012 at 5:38:53 AM
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Alright....we saw first half progress in improving the formula. I hope it continues and that I can find an additional piece that will push our net win up.
Today's picks are:
New York Yankees -137 (2 UNITS)
Detroit Tigers -118
Chicago White Sox -117
Milwaukee Brewers -137 (2 UNITS)
Today's picks are:
New York Yankees -137 (2 UNITS)
Detroit Tigers -118
Chicago White Sox -117
Milwaukee Brewers -137 (2 UNITS)
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
July 14th, 2012 at 7:42:29 AM
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Quote: steeldco
Since 04/26/12 (date of first major change in formula) we have a net win of +748, having made 360 picks and a record of 179 wins and 181 losses. 49.72%
Since 06/14/12 (date of second major change in formula with additional pitching stats) we have a net win of +664, having made 88 picks and a record of 46 wins and 42 losses. 52.27%
Even stating your winning or losing percentage is misleading. Since you are picking games that are on a money line, not a points (or runs) line, the winning percentage is not relevant. I could develop a system, say, pick home teams with pitchers who have ERA's under 4.00, and I'll be able to likely snare 60% wins. But I may be laying odds high enough that even winning 60% of the games I'll be losing money. The +748 and +664 is what is pertinent and relevant!
Good luck!
July 14th, 2012 at 9:49:48 AM
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If you want a per game number, divide the profit/loss, by the number of games wagered. That would give you a percentage "win" per bet, and give you a rough idea of the edge you may (or may not have). You can then do clever Stats to estimate the variance/range around that edge.
748/360 = 2.078, which I think means 2.078 gained per 100 wagered.
748/360 = 2.078, which I think means 2.078 gained per 100 wagered.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
July 14th, 2012 at 12:18:36 PM
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soopoo,
You're right. Thank you. Point well taken. Particularly since I know that lately the formula has been picking more favorites. That's probably why the % has increased.
You're right. Thank you. Point well taken. Particularly since I know that lately the formula has been picking more favorites. That's probably why the % has increased.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
July 14th, 2012 at 12:24:11 PM
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thecesspit,
Interesting. How would the fact that some of the picks are wagered at 2X units come into play here? How would I account for those?
Interesting. How would the fact that some of the picks are wagered at 2X units come into play here? How would I account for those?
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
July 14th, 2012 at 12:24:12 PM
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thecesspit,
Interesting. How would the fact that some of the picks are wagered at 2X units come into play here? How would I account for those?
Interesting. How would the fact that some of the picks are wagered at 2X units come into play here? How would I account for those?
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
July 14th, 2012 at 1:22:30 PM
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You could account for the 2X picks by merely counting them as 2 wins or 2 losses. For example, game 1 -200 2X loss. game 2 -140 win, game 3 130 2x win. Totals -40 3 wins 2 losses. 60% winning percentage, -$40 money.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
July 14th, 2012 at 4:39:44 PM
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Quote: steeldcothecesspit,
Interesting. How would the fact that some of the picks are wagered at 2X units come into play here? How would I account for those?
If your lumping it all together, it's the net amount won/loss per $1 wagered that's of interest, thinking about it. Bet $400, win net of $50, you've won 12.5c per $1. I had forget when I was writing you had the 2x bets as well. If you looking at each type, you can split it "per bet".
Anywhich way, this gives you an idea of the expectation of the next bet. Only an idea, but it might be useful. You could also back run the +130's and -110's you've done and see if currently you have an advantage over the book, and it's size, and the size of your error bars around that. Of the top of my head, I'm not sure how many bets you'd need to start to get a good idea of your actual EV +/- 1.s.d being above the profit line.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
July 15th, 2012 at 7:26:24 AM
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So maybe the best indicator would be return or loss / amount put at risk. A return on investment %? The win being the return and the amount at risk being the amount invested. I kind of like that. What do you think? Of course if there's a loss then I will go hide somewhere...........
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
July 15th, 2012 at 7:38:52 AM
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I had posted yesterday's activity and today's picks earlier but the post is not here.........hhmmmm.
Sorry if this is going to end up being a regurgitation of the post, if it shows up.
We had net loss yesterday of -309 which brought our YTD to -756. There were no +130dogs picked so its YTD remained at +324. The 2Xs play lost -74 and its YTD is now -544.
Today should be interest with several dogs and several 2Xs plays. They are:
Toronto Blue Jays -143 (2 UNITS)
Baltimore Orioles 160 (2 UNITS)
Kansas City Royals 153 (2 UNITS)
Milwaukee Brewers -145 (2 UNITS)
Houston Astros 200
San Diego Padres 149
Cincinnati Reds -149 (2 UNITS)
Sorry if this is going to end up being a regurgitation of the post, if it shows up.
We had net loss yesterday of -309 which brought our YTD to -756. There were no +130dogs picked so its YTD remained at +324. The 2Xs play lost -74 and its YTD is now -544.
Today should be interest with several dogs and several 2Xs plays. They are:
Toronto Blue Jays -143 (2 UNITS)
Baltimore Orioles 160 (2 UNITS)
Kansas City Royals 153 (2 UNITS)
Milwaukee Brewers -145 (2 UNITS)
Houston Astros 200
San Diego Padres 149
Cincinnati Reds -149 (2 UNITS)
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
July 15th, 2012 at 8:43:27 AM
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Quote: steeldcoSo maybe the best indicator would be return or loss / amount put at risk. A return on investment %? The win being the return and the amount at risk being the amount invested. I kind of like that. What do you think? Of course if there's a loss then I will go hide somewhere...........
That's what any investment is all about. You do consider this investing, versus gambling, I should hope ??
July 15th, 2012 at 8:59:35 AM
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As an old time experienced hand in public markets, yes. And yes, though the debate goes on, the stock market is in many, many ways the world's largest casino. But not for me. I do not believe in daytrading or even frequent trading. I do believe in investing, which is buying and holding until it exceeds fair value.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
July 15th, 2012 at 9:00:57 AM
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Sorry....or until the company's fundamentals have changed and it no longer warrants holding on to.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
July 16th, 2012 at 7:51:59 AM
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Yesterday was a net win of +249 and that left our YTD at -507. The +130dogs continue to flounder and had a net loss of -351 and its YTD has gone into the red at -27. The 2Xs plays were a net winner with a +200 and its YTD is now -344.
Today's picks are:
LA Angels of Anaheim 105
Toronto Blue Jays 164
Today's picks are:
LA Angels of Anaheim 105
Toronto Blue Jays 164
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
July 16th, 2012 at 5:16:31 PM
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I offer the following for consideration. I did this for the period starting with the first major revamp in formula. Please critique or comment.
80 days from 04/26 thru 07/15
Highest Bankroll Needed 1035
Average Bankroll (House Money) (556)
Number of days a bankroll was needed 21
Average Bankroll needed for the 21 days 453
Annualized ROI based upon highest Bankroll needed 199.13%
I calculated the daily bankroll need by adding the day's at risk amount to the cumulative profit or loss at the beginning of that day. I think that the above number is conservative since I based it upon the highest bankroll needed for a day whereas it should have adjusted daily, and even earning an small bit of interest. I think.......this was a pain in the butt to do. In order to get caught up. It will be easier going forward if I can remember to update the file daily.
80 days from 04/26 thru 07/15
Highest Bankroll Needed 1035
Average Bankroll (House Money) (556)
Number of days a bankroll was needed 21
Average Bankroll needed for the 21 days 453
Annualized ROI based upon highest Bankroll needed 199.13%
I calculated the daily bankroll need by adding the day's at risk amount to the cumulative profit or loss at the beginning of that day. I think that the above number is conservative since I based it upon the highest bankroll needed for a day whereas it should have adjusted daily, and even earning an small bit of interest. I think.......this was a pain in the butt to do. In order to get caught up. It will be easier going forward if I can remember to update the file daily.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
July 17th, 2012 at 3:55:23 AM
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An O-fer. We had a net loss of -200 and YTD is now -707. The +130dogs were a net loss of -100 and its YTD is now -127. There were no 2Xs plays.
Today's picks are:
Detroit Tigers -120 (2 UNITS)
Arizona DiamondBacks 155
Chicago White Sox 155
Today's picks are:
Detroit Tigers -120 (2 UNITS)
Arizona DiamondBacks 155
Chicago White Sox 155
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
July 18th, 2012 at 9:07:09 AM
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Yesterday was a net loss of -185 and our YTD became -892. The +130dogs were a net winner for +55 and its YTD is now -72. The 2Xs palys were a loss of -240 and its YTD is now -584. A second consecutive losing day. It seems like this method has become very "streaky" lately, which would portend a losing day today. We'll see.
Today's picks are:
Los Angeles Dodgers -119 (2 UNITS)
Chicago White Sox 158
Chicago Cubs 108 (2 UNITS)
Baltimore Orioles 144
Seattle Mariners 114
Today's picks are:
Los Angeles Dodgers -119 (2 UNITS)
Chicago White Sox 158
Chicago Cubs 108 (2 UNITS)
Baltimore Orioles 144
Seattle Mariners 114
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
July 19th, 2012 at 4:00:59 AM
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LOL....amazing. It just never fails. I make an observation and a call and the opposite happens most of the time.
Anyway, we had a good day yesterday with a net win of +360 and our YTD is now -532. The +130dogs had a winning day for a net of +44 and its YTD is now -28. The 2Xs plays were a net winner of +416 and its YTD is now -168.
I probably shouldn't curse myself, but I'll go ahead and state that since I still do believe that we have been a bit "streaky" we should have another winning day today and tomorrow (here's hoping). We'll see.
Today's picks are:
San Francisco Giants 104
Detroit Tigers -136 (2 UNITS)
San Diego Padres -147 (2 UNITS)
Anyway, we had a good day yesterday with a net win of +360 and our YTD is now -532. The +130dogs had a winning day for a net of +44 and its YTD is now -28. The 2Xs plays were a net winner of +416 and its YTD is now -168.
I probably shouldn't curse myself, but I'll go ahead and state that since I still do believe that we have been a bit "streaky" we should have another winning day today and tomorrow (here's hoping). We'll see.
Today's picks are:
San Francisco Giants 104
Detroit Tigers -136 (2 UNITS)
San Diego Padres -147 (2 UNITS)
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
July 20th, 2012 at 8:12:34 AM
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Well, so far so good. I called for a winning day yesterday and got it. We had a net win of +300 and our YTD stands at -232. There were no +130dogs but we did have a couple of 2Xs plays that won for +400 and its YTD broke into the black for a net win of +232.
The second part of yesterday's call was that we would have another winning day today. With so many of the teams not having played yesterday, there ended up being only one pick today......but I guess if it's one game then Strasborg might be a good choice to be on.
Today's pick:
Washington Nationals -140 (2 UNITS)
The second part of yesterday's call was that we would have another winning day today. With so many of the teams not having played yesterday, there ended up being only one pick today......but I guess if it's one game then Strasborg might be a good choice to be on.
Today's pick:
Washington Nationals -140 (2 UNITS)
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
July 20th, 2012 at 9:11:17 PM
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Washington was winning 9 - 0 in the 5th inning and blew it. Unbelievabe.
July 20th, 2012 at 9:15:17 PM
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Quote: duckston09Washington was winning 9 - 0 in the 5th inning and blew it. Unbelievabe.
It was totally expected as I told steeldco at the time
July 20th, 2012 at 9:47:19 PM
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There's a strange thing happening with Atlanta on Fridays. By coming back from a 9 run deficit, they are 12 - 2 on Fridays. They play much different on Mondays. They are 0 -11 on Mondays and 0 - 15 dating back to last August.
July 20th, 2012 at 9:49:02 PM
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That is easily explainable to someone who knows baseball.
July 20th, 2012 at 9:59:59 PM
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Just a coincidence. I guess. Still strange
July 20th, 2012 at 10:31:25 PM
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must be having too much sex with the groupies on the weekend
In a bet, there is a fool and a thief.
- Proverb.
July 21st, 2012 at 6:56:36 AM
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G;WEOFJG0IOQEHTVIJ ]GV3Q 0G9ERUT0]ERJGP!!!!!! Ya gotta be kiddin' me...........I know it happens, but never to me.......... LOLOL.
Wow. I went to bed feeling good, thinking I had a winner, and woke up this morning wanting to puke.............like a punch in the nuts.
Yesterday was a net loss of -280 and our YTD is now -512. There were no +130dogs and the 2Xs plays had a loss of -280 and making its YTD -48. Yesterday also screwed up the streak that I was expecting.
I have a little time on my hands today. I'm going to explore for a pattern, or trend, that we can try to exploit.
Today's picks are:
Cleveland Indians -146 (2 UNITS)
Toronto Blue Jays 124
Tampa Bay Rays -146 (2 UNITS)
San Diego Padres -104 (2 UNITS)
Wow. I went to bed feeling good, thinking I had a winner, and woke up this morning wanting to puke.............like a punch in the nuts.
Yesterday was a net loss of -280 and our YTD is now -512. There were no +130dogs and the 2Xs plays had a loss of -280 and making its YTD -48. Yesterday also screwed up the streak that I was expecting.
I have a little time on my hands today. I'm going to explore for a pattern, or trend, that we can try to exploit.
Today's picks are:
Cleveland Indians -146 (2 UNITS)
Toronto Blue Jays 124
Tampa Bay Rays -146 (2 UNITS)
San Diego Padres -104 (2 UNITS)
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
July 21st, 2012 at 7:05:15 AM
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Today would be a good day for a reversal trend. Just called my bookie and bet the same gays. Only the opposite way. Nothing personal, I just need the money.
July 21st, 2012 at 7:20:18 AM
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Quote: duckston09There's a strange thing happening with Atlanta on Fridays. By coming back from a 9 run deficit, they are 12 - 2 on Fridays. They play much different on Mondays. They are 0 -11 on Mondays and 0 - 15 dating back to last August.
duckston, I checked and you're right with Atlanta's tendencies for Fridays and Mondays. I find it interesting. The question is, can something like that be consistant enough to be used or is it about to reverse? Have to ponder this, but thanks!
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
July 21st, 2012 at 8:58:51 AM
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I just think it's a coincidence. I'll give you another example. The Pittsburgh Pirates are 13 -2 on Saturdays and undefeated at home (8-0). They gave up a total of 12 runs in those eight games and the total score never exceeded 8. The over and under is 8 today.
July 21st, 2012 at 9:21:13 AM
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Sometimes "coincidences" can be short term trends that can be exploited. I'm toying with the idea of using something like the above to eliminate picks. For example if the Pirates are 13 and 2 on Saturdays then maybe I should be eliminating a pick that my formula produces that would go against that? NOT add a pick, but eliminate.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
July 21st, 2012 at 9:37:22 AM
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Trends can drive you a little crazy. After last night with Atlanta, it can make you wonder. Especially going 0 - 15 on Mondays. The record for the most losses on a Monday is 20. Maybe they can break that record.
July 22nd, 2012 at 4:20:53 AM
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Quote: steeldcoSometimes "coincidences" can be short term trends that can be exploited. I'm toying with the idea of using something like the above to eliminate picks. For example if the Pirates are 13 and 2 on Saturdays then maybe I should be eliminating a pick that my formula produces that would go against that? NOT add a pick, but eliminate.
You should only do so if it is reasonable that there is a true correlation. If the Pirates are 13- 2 against lefthanded pitchers that might be a trend to consider. If they are 13 - 2 against pitchers who have 3 vowels in their name I would discount that trend.
July 22nd, 2012 at 7:57:56 AM
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It never feels good losing, and for some reason, yesterday felt like yet another kick in the nuts. Terrible day (worst day since 05/11) with a net loss of -668 which brought our YTD to -1180. There were no +130dogs and the 2Xs plays were a loser for -792 and its YTD has gone to -840.
I made a minor tweak to the formula this morning. The net effect on today's picks is that the tweak added Washington.
Today's picks are:
Los Angeles Dodgers 130
Washington Nationals -123 (2 UNITS)
Kansas City Royals -130 (2 UNITS)
Chicago Cubs 180
I made a minor tweak to the formula this morning. The net effect on today's picks is that the tweak added Washington.
Today's picks are:
Los Angeles Dodgers 130
Washington Nationals -123 (2 UNITS)
Kansas City Royals -130 (2 UNITS)
Chicago Cubs 180
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
July 22nd, 2012 at 8:00:16 AM
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soopoo,
but what if guys with 3 vowels in their name all are from a family tree whose offspring throws 103 mph but you don't know that they're all related?
but what if guys with 3 vowels in their name all are from a family tree whose offspring throws 103 mph but you don't know that they're all related?
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
July 22nd, 2012 at 11:40:53 AM
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Straight betting is really tough. Why don't you use Ovr/Und in part of your calculations? I only have one pick that I agree with on your suggested picks for the day.
Bang Biscuit!
July 22nd, 2012 at 12:04:02 PM
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It never feels good losing, and for some reason, yesterday felt like yet another kick in the nuts. Terrible day (worst day since 05/11) with a net loss of -668 which brought our YTD to -1180. There were no +130dogs and the 2Xs plays were a loser for -792 and its YTD has gone to -840.
Well, I told you I needed the money. I cleaned up betting against your picks. Nothing personal.
I just needed the money !
Well, I told you I needed the money. I cleaned up betting against your picks. Nothing personal.
I just needed the money !
July 22nd, 2012 at 1:19:25 PM
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Steel--- Does your formula end up with a likelihood that one team will win, that is, given the data, team A will win 60% and team B 40%?
Or is it just that team A should win more than 1/2 the time?
Or is it just that team A should win more than 1/2 the time?
July 23rd, 2012 at 7:09:44 AM
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soopoo,
sorry for not responding yesterday, but we spent the day at a family birthday party. great stuff. amazing what being around a bunch of kids can do. feel good. uplifting. invigorating. fantastic.
my formula uses a set of stats which is meant to tell me which team is more likely to win. not necessarily 50% or 60% or 70% of the time, etc.
a team with only a slight edge, using my stats, is no less likely to win than the team with a larger statistical advantage. at least that is what I have seen so far.
the exception is the 2Xs plays which had shown a higher winning % when I backtested. those have not done so well since introduction.
i hope that I answered your question........
sorry for not responding yesterday, but we spent the day at a family birthday party. great stuff. amazing what being around a bunch of kids can do. feel good. uplifting. invigorating. fantastic.
my formula uses a set of stats which is meant to tell me which team is more likely to win. not necessarily 50% or 60% or 70% of the time, etc.
a team with only a slight edge, using my stats, is no less likely to win than the team with a larger statistical advantage. at least that is what I have seen so far.
the exception is the 2Xs plays which had shown a higher winning % when I backtested. those have not done so well since introduction.
i hope that I answered your question........
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
July 23rd, 2012 at 7:14:37 AM
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Yesterday was our 3rd. consecutive losing day (4 consecutive losing days has been our longest streak). We had a net loss of -30 which put our YTD at -1210. The +130dogs were +30 and its YTD is now +2. The 2Xs plays were a loser for -60 and its YTD is now -900.
Only one pick today:
Los Angeles Dodgers 113
Only one pick today:
Los Angeles Dodgers 113
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
