MLB picks
April 15th, 2012 at 6:39:03 AM
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I have failed miserably with what I thought was a winning formula on picking NBA games, but hope springs eternal, and I am going to publish MLB picks that are based upon a very simple set of variables. The only thing that I do not like is that it ends up picking a lot of games, but I believe that it will be a net winner based upon the money line. Here are today's picks:
New York Mets 180
Washington Nationals -108
Boston Red Sox 105
Cleveland Indians -119
Arizona DiamondBacks 103
San Francisco Giants -154
Los Angeles Angels 166
The total being put at risk is 781.
New York Mets 180
Washington Nationals -108
Boston Red Sox 105
Cleveland Indians -119
Arizona DiamondBacks 103
San Francisco Giants -154
Los Angeles Angels 166
The total being put at risk is 781.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 16th, 2012 at 9:04:05 AM
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Yesterday's net loss totaled -159.
Todays' picks are:
Houston Astros 225
New York Yankees -178
New York Mets 155
Arizona DiamondBacks -127
Los Angeles Angels -185
Philadelphia Phillies -115
Arizona DiamondBacks 103
Los Angeles Dodgers -220
New York Yankees -176
Looks like alot of favorites and the total being put at risk is 1,301
Todays' picks are:
Houston Astros 225
New York Yankees -178
New York Mets 155
Arizona DiamondBacks -127
Los Angeles Angels -185
Philadelphia Phillies -115
Arizona DiamondBacks 103
Los Angeles Dodgers -220
New York Yankees -176
Looks like alot of favorites and the total being put at risk is 1,301
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 16th, 2012 at 12:20:07 PM
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Advice from a bookie:
Guarantee #1- Bettors who only play favorites will get buried during baseball season.
Guarantee #2- Bettors will almost always bet the favorite.
People just can't put their hard-earned $$ on a team that is supposed to lose.
Guarantee #1- Bettors who only play favorites will get buried during baseball season.
Guarantee #2- Bettors will almost always bet the favorite.
People just can't put their hard-earned $$ on a team that is supposed to lose.
"I don't have a gambling problem. I have a financial problem."
April 16th, 2012 at 1:44:04 PM
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Last year I noticed a guy at the sportsbook, a regular, betting the two biggest baseball favorites in a 2-team $100 parlay. I thought I would try and track this bet during the 2012 MLB season using the highest projected win percentage based on Massey Ratings. Here are the current results based on a $50 2-team parlay, the far right column shows profit/loss.
4/5//2012 Reds (-130) Mets (-105) $50.00 $122.71
4/6/2012 Rangers (-190) Dbacks (-110) $50.00 $95.69
4/7/2012 Rangers (-200) Angels (-200) $50.00 $(50.00)
4/8/2012 Rangers (-170) Orioles (-110) $50.00 $101.60
4/9/2012 Rangers (-230) Phillies (-150) $50.00 $(50.00)
4/10/2012 Rangers (-230) Dodgers (-220) $50.00 $54.35
4/11/2012 Rangers (-230) Phillies (-140) $50.00 $(50.00)
4/12/2012 Rangers (-230) Dodgers (-140) $50.00 $72.98
4/13/2012 Yankees (-150) Cardinals (-190) $50.00 $(50.00)
4/14/2012 Yankees (-150) Cardinals (-190) $50.00 $(50.00)
4/15/2012 Cardinals (-170) Dodgers (-200) $50.00 $69.12
Total Profit $266.45
Games for Monday, 4/16/2012: Yankees (-180) Dbacks (-130)
4/5//2012 Reds (-130) Mets (-105) $50.00 $122.71
4/6/2012 Rangers (-190) Dbacks (-110) $50.00 $95.69
4/7/2012 Rangers (-200) Angels (-200) $50.00 $(50.00)
4/8/2012 Rangers (-170) Orioles (-110) $50.00 $101.60
4/9/2012 Rangers (-230) Phillies (-150) $50.00 $(50.00)
4/10/2012 Rangers (-230) Dodgers (-220) $50.00 $54.35
4/11/2012 Rangers (-230) Phillies (-140) $50.00 $(50.00)
4/12/2012 Rangers (-230) Dodgers (-140) $50.00 $72.98
4/13/2012 Yankees (-150) Cardinals (-190) $50.00 $(50.00)
4/14/2012 Yankees (-150) Cardinals (-190) $50.00 $(50.00)
4/15/2012 Cardinals (-170) Dodgers (-200) $50.00 $69.12
Total Profit $266.45
Games for Monday, 4/16/2012: Yankees (-180) Dbacks (-130)
April 17th, 2012 at 4:01:42 AM
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First off, I screwed up on my cutting and pasting. The last 3 games listed above were actually data from the day before. For example, you can see that Arizona is listed twice above. Sorry about that. There was a net win yesterday of 177. My YTD is now +18. Today's picks are:
Houston Astros 158
Toronto Blue Jays -132
Los Angeles Dodgers 110
Baltimore Orioles 122
Kansas City Royals 106
Cincinnati Reds 106
San Diego Padres 108
Los Angeles Angels -200
Cleveland Indians -125
The above picks will put 1,057 at risk.
Houston Astros 158
Toronto Blue Jays -132
Los Angeles Dodgers 110
Baltimore Orioles 122
Kansas City Royals 106
Cincinnati Reds 106
San Diego Padres 108
Los Angeles Angels -200
Cleveland Indians -125
The above picks will put 1,057 at risk.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 17th, 2012 at 4:04:56 AM
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SONBP2,
Interesting. Can you keep us informed as to how the parlays do? However, I'm with Dan, playing mostly favorites will probably get you killed.
Interesting. Can you keep us informed as to how the parlays do? However, I'm with Dan, playing mostly favorites will probably get you killed.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 17th, 2012 at 8:44:53 AM
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4/13/2012 Yankees (-150) Cardinals (-190) $50.00 $(50.00)
4/14/2012 Yankees (-150) Cardinals (-190) $50.00 $(50.00)
4/15/2012 Cardinals (-170) Dodgers (-200) $50.00 $69.12
4/16/2012 Yankees (-180) Dbacks (-130) $50.00 $(50.00)
4/17/2012 Yankees (-230) Dbacks (-185) $50.00 $60.52 (pending)
Total $216.45
I noticed I really wasn't following the bettor's strategy as I was using Massey ratings to determine the most likely winner and he was using the two largest favorites according to the sports book. So below is the results of his betting system so far in the 2012 season. It doesn't take much effort on my part so I will do my best to keep my posts updated throughout the year.
DATE TEAM 1 TEAM 2 TOTAL BET WIN/LOSS
4/5//2012 Dodgers (-155) Phillies (-155) $50.00 $85.33
4/6/2012 Rangers (-190) Angels (-210) $50.00 $62.66
4/7/2012 Rangers (-200) Angels (-200) $50.00 $(50.00)
4/8/2012 Rangers (-170) Angels (-170) $50.00 $(50.00)
4/9/2012 Rangers (-230) Angels (-160) $50.00 $66.58
4/10/2012 Rangers (-230) Dodgers (-220) $50.00 $54.35
4/11/2012 Rangers (-230) Yankees (-175) $50.00 $(50.00)
4/12/2012 Rangers (-230) Angels (-140) $50.00 $(50.00)
4/13/2012 Miami (-200) Cardinals (-190) $50.00 $(50.00)
4/14/2012 Toronto (-160) Cardinals (-190) $50.00 $(50.00)
4/15/2012 Miami (-200) Dodgers (-200) $50.00 $62.50
4/16/2012 Yankees (-180) Nationals (-250) $50.00 $(50.00)
4/17/2012 Yankees (-230) Angels (-190) $50.00
Total $(18.58)
**On a side note, I fully agree with the comments listed above about betting favorites, that is why I am following this strategy for the first half of the season and then I will make a determination about the value. I know of several dog MLB systems, all which seem logical, but none of which I have found successful.
4/14/2012 Yankees (-150) Cardinals (-190) $50.00 $(50.00)
4/15/2012 Cardinals (-170) Dodgers (-200) $50.00 $69.12
4/16/2012 Yankees (-180) Dbacks (-130) $50.00 $(50.00)
4/17/2012 Yankees (-230) Dbacks (-185) $50.00 $60.52 (pending)
Total $216.45
I noticed I really wasn't following the bettor's strategy as I was using Massey ratings to determine the most likely winner and he was using the two largest favorites according to the sports book. So below is the results of his betting system so far in the 2012 season. It doesn't take much effort on my part so I will do my best to keep my posts updated throughout the year.
DATE TEAM 1 TEAM 2 TOTAL BET WIN/LOSS
4/5//2012 Dodgers (-155) Phillies (-155) $50.00 $85.33
4/6/2012 Rangers (-190) Angels (-210) $50.00 $62.66
4/7/2012 Rangers (-200) Angels (-200) $50.00 $(50.00)
4/8/2012 Rangers (-170) Angels (-170) $50.00 $(50.00)
4/9/2012 Rangers (-230) Angels (-160) $50.00 $66.58
4/10/2012 Rangers (-230) Dodgers (-220) $50.00 $54.35
4/11/2012 Rangers (-230) Yankees (-175) $50.00 $(50.00)
4/12/2012 Rangers (-230) Angels (-140) $50.00 $(50.00)
4/13/2012 Miami (-200) Cardinals (-190) $50.00 $(50.00)
4/14/2012 Toronto (-160) Cardinals (-190) $50.00 $(50.00)
4/15/2012 Miami (-200) Dodgers (-200) $50.00 $62.50
4/16/2012 Yankees (-180) Nationals (-250) $50.00 $(50.00)
4/17/2012 Yankees (-230) Angels (-190) $50.00
Total $(18.58)
**On a side note, I fully agree with the comments listed above about betting favorites, that is why I am following this strategy for the first half of the season and then I will make a determination about the value. I know of several dog MLB systems, all which seem logical, but none of which I have found successful.
April 18th, 2012 at 7:24:51 AM
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Yesterday's net was a loss of -378. The YTD net stands at -360. There were a couple of tough games yesterday.......
Today's picks:
New York Mets 117
New York Yankees -230
Tampa Bay Rays 105
Texas Rangers 103
Milwaukee Brewers -164
Los Angeles Angels -160
Cleveland Indians -105
San Francisco Giants -105
I'd also like to play Detroit, but I do not have a line at this point. Total at risk today is 1,064 plus whatever Detroit ends up being.
Today's picks:
New York Mets 117
New York Yankees -230
Tampa Bay Rays 105
Texas Rangers 103
Milwaukee Brewers -164
Los Angeles Angels -160
Cleveland Indians -105
San Francisco Giants -105
I'd also like to play Detroit, but I do not have a line at this point. Total at risk today is 1,064 plus whatever Detroit ends up being.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 19th, 2012 at 4:34:25 AM
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Damn Yankees...........
Yesterday's net was a loss of -87, bringing my YTD to -447.
Today's picks:
Miami Marlins -165
St. Louis Cardinals -165
Chicago White Sox -140
New York Yankees -215
Toronto Blue Jays -114
Detroit Tigers 106
Atlanta Braves -113
San Diego Padres 108
Oakland Athletics 180
Total at risk today is 1,212.
Yesterday's net was a loss of -87, bringing my YTD to -447.
Today's picks:
Miami Marlins -165
St. Louis Cardinals -165
Chicago White Sox -140
New York Yankees -215
Toronto Blue Jays -114
Detroit Tigers 106
Atlanta Braves -113
San Diego Padres 108
Oakland Athletics 180
Total at risk today is 1,212.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 19th, 2012 at 8:03:55 AM
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Your bookie asked me to try and talk you into increasing your bets. His mistress has a birthday next week !
April 20th, 2012 at 6:46:35 AM
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Yesterday's net was a loss of -139. YTD is -586. It's just pickin' too many damn favorites. Here's today's list:
Cincinnati Reds -119
New York Yankees -109
Washington Nationals -120
Texas Rangers -105
New York Mets -131
Minnesota Twins 163
Houston Astros 115
Atlanta Braves -114
Chicago White Sox -120
Total at risk today is 1,018
Cincinnati Reds -119
New York Yankees -109
Washington Nationals -120
Texas Rangers -105
New York Mets -131
Minnesota Twins 163
Houston Astros 115
Atlanta Braves -114
Chicago White Sox -120
Total at risk today is 1,018
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 21st, 2012 at 8:51:01 AM
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I guess that bitchin' some helps............a decent day yesterday. A net of +432. YTD now stands at -154. Today's picks are:
Cincinnati Reds -132
San Francisco Giants 102
New York Yankees 112
Colorado Rockies 120
Minnesota Twins 178
Atlanta Braves -118
Philadelphia Phillies -145
Oakland Athletics -135
Cincinnati Reds -132
San Francisco Giants 102
New York Yankees 112
Colorado Rockies 120
Minnesota Twins 178
Atlanta Braves -118
Philadelphia Phillies -145
Oakland Athletics -135
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 21st, 2012 at 10:38:37 AM
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2 items that I had forgotten to mention. Today's games are putting 930 at risk.
Also, since I believe you always need goals.......my goal here is to average a net +150 per day. My current average stands at -26.
Also, since I believe you always need goals.......my goal here is to average a net +150 per day. My current average stands at -26.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 21st, 2012 at 2:03:30 PM
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I've pretty much spent the day trying to find a smaller subset, hopefully with a higher winning percentage, than the large list that my formula spits out on a daily basis. I may have it. I was only able to back test a week, but it seems to work. I'm going to start including it daily and, for lack of a better term, call it best picks. So today's "Best Picks" are:
Atlanta Braves -118
Philadelphia Phillies -145
Atlanta Braves -118
Philadelphia Phillies -145
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 22nd, 2012 at 6:08:50 AM
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I kind of liked the fact that yesterday's picks were a fair balance of favs and dogs and it turned out to be a lousy day. The day before I was griping that there were too many favorites being picked and it ended up being a good day. Coincidence? Today's picks are heavily weighted with favorites. We'll see.
Yesterday's net loss was -500 and I now stand at -654 YTD. Also, my "Best Picks" split and I am now -45 with them.
San Francisco Giants -124
Toronto Blue Jays -122
Chicago Cubs 140
LA Angels of Anaheim -164
Cleveland Indians -110
New York Yankees -134
Total at risk today is 754.
Also, today's "Best Picks" are:
Toronto Blue Jays -122
Chicago Cubs 140
Cleveland Indians -110
New York Yankees -134
Yesterday's net loss was -500 and I now stand at -654 YTD. Also, my "Best Picks" split and I am now -45 with them.
San Francisco Giants -124
Toronto Blue Jays -122
Chicago Cubs 140
LA Angels of Anaheim -164
Cleveland Indians -110
New York Yankees -134
Total at risk today is 754.
Also, today's "Best Picks" are:
Toronto Blue Jays -122
Chicago Cubs 140
Cleveland Indians -110
New York Yankees -134
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 23rd, 2012 at 6:13:48 PM
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I guess it wasn't a good thing to be weighted towards favorites. Net loss yesterday was -274. I now stand at -928 for the year.
Also, my "Best Picks" were a loser. The net there was -110 and I am now -155 YTD on those.
No picks were posted today because of a family emergency. Back tomorrow.
Also, my "Best Picks" were a loser. The net there was -110 and I am now -155 YTD on those.
No picks were posted today because of a family emergency. Back tomorrow.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 24th, 2012 at 3:31:54 AM
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YTD is -928 and "Best Picks" are -155 on a YTD basis.
Today's picks are:
Kansas City Royals 120
San Francisco Giants -105
Houston Astros 125
Boston Red Sox -155
Arizona DiamondBacks 106
Chicago White Sox EV
Los Angeles Dodgers 105
Total put at risk is 760.
Today's "Best picks" are:
San Francisco Giants -105
Houston Astros 125
Boston Red Sox -155
Arizona DiamondBacks 106
Los Angeles Dodgers 105
Today's picks are:
Kansas City Royals 120
San Francisco Giants -105
Houston Astros 125
Boston Red Sox -155
Arizona DiamondBacks 106
Chicago White Sox EV
Los Angeles Dodgers 105
Total put at risk is 760.
Today's "Best picks" are:
San Francisco Giants -105
Houston Astros 125
Boston Red Sox -155
Arizona DiamondBacks 106
Los Angeles Dodgers 105
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 25th, 2012 at 9:44:30 AM
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Well, this is interesting........... First, I'm renaming "Best Picks" to "Best Busts" and I'm going to stop using them. I end this program with a YTD loss of -460.
I had a losing day yesterday, again, for a net of -505. My YTD now stands at a net loss of -1,433. This is what is interesting, however, I have now had 7 losing days out of 9. Nice consistantcy. Love it! If I have another losing day today, then tomorrow I'm going to flip signs in my calculation, in effect giving me the other side of my picks and use that going forward.
The picks today are (here's hoping that they're losers):
Pittsburgh Pirates 105
Chicago Cubs 150
Philadelphia Phillies -105
Kansas City Royals 138
Seattle Mariners -102
Boston Red Sox -120
I had a losing day yesterday, again, for a net of -505. My YTD now stands at a net loss of -1,433. This is what is interesting, however, I have now had 7 losing days out of 9. Nice consistantcy. Love it! If I have another losing day today, then tomorrow I'm going to flip signs in my calculation, in effect giving me the other side of my picks and use that going forward.
The picks today are (here's hoping that they're losers):
Pittsburgh Pirates 105
Chicago Cubs 150
Philadelphia Phillies -105
Kansas City Royals 138
Seattle Mariners -102
Boston Red Sox -120
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 25th, 2012 at 9:47:53 AM
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prediction: out 5K by the all-star break
In a bet, there is a fool and a thief.
- Proverb.
April 25th, 2012 at 10:26:25 AM
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Quote: WongBoprediction: out 5K by the all-star break
Prediction - Done picking by Memorial Day.
April 25th, 2012 at 11:08:50 AM
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The Pittsburgh pick, btw, is the 1st. game of the doubleheader.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 25th, 2012 at 12:33:56 PM
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STEELDCO
You have a winning sysyem already. Just bet the opposite way. NO I AM NOT KIDDING !!
You have a winning sysyem already. Just bet the opposite way. NO I AM NOT KIDDING !!
April 26th, 2012 at 3:51:33 AM
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Somehow it just never fails. I start getting excited because I see some consistantcy. In this case, consistant losing, and I end up with a winning day. So....I'm not making any changes in the math.....yet. Yesterday was a net win of +238. YTD leaves me at a loss of -1,195.
Again, no change in the model. Today's picks are:
Kansas City Royals 135
San Francisco Giants 120
Seattle Mariners 180
Chicago White Sox -118
Washington Nationals -105
Again, no change in the model. Today's picks are:
Kansas City Royals 135
San Francisco Giants 120
Seattle Mariners 180
Chicago White Sox -118
Washington Nationals -105
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 27th, 2012 at 6:01:55 AM
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Okay. Yesterday was a net gain of +212. YTD now stands at -983. It's amazing how good you feel when you pick a big dog correctly even though everything else may be kinda crappy.......
Today's picks are:
Philadelphia Phillies -260
Boston Red Sox -110
New York Mets 150
Kinda surprised that there's only 3 since there's a full slate of games......
Today's picks are:
Philadelphia Phillies -260
Boston Red Sox -110
New York Mets 150
Kinda surprised that there's only 3 since there's a full slate of games......
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 27th, 2012 at 12:28:12 PM
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My comment above about feeling good when a big dog wins kind of spurred a little project. I looked back at the games picked where it was a dog of at least +130. Here's the results:
Date Team M/L Result
4/15/2012 Angels 166 -100
4/16/2012 Mets 155 155
4/16/2012 Astros 225 -100
4/17/2012 Astros 158 -100
4/19/2012 Oakland 180 180
4/20/2012 Minnesota 163 163
4/21/2012 Minnesota 178 -100
4/22/2012 Cubs 140 -100
4/25/2012 Cubs 150 -100
4/25/2012 Kansas City 138 138
4/26/2012 Kansas City 135 135
4/26/2012 Seattle 180 180
351
Net win of +351 over 12 selections. Kind of has me excited again. Time will tell....
Date Team M/L Result
4/15/2012 Angels 166 -100
4/16/2012 Mets 155 155
4/16/2012 Astros 225 -100
4/17/2012 Astros 158 -100
4/19/2012 Oakland 180 180
4/20/2012 Minnesota 163 163
4/21/2012 Minnesota 178 -100
4/22/2012 Cubs 140 -100
4/25/2012 Cubs 150 -100
4/25/2012 Kansas City 138 138
4/26/2012 Kansas City 135 135
4/26/2012 Seattle 180 180
351
Net win of +351 over 12 selections. Kind of has me excited again. Time will tell....
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 28th, 2012 at 7:25:32 AM
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Yesterday's picks yielded a net loss of -260. YTD now stands at -1,243. The subset of +130Dogs was -100 yesterday and the YTD now stands at +251.
Today's picks are:
St. Louis Cardinals -148
Cleveland Indians 122
Detroit Tigers 109
Atlanta Braves -141
Boston Red Sox -104
Tampa Bay Rays 148
Los Angeles Dodgers 105
I am also now noticing a pattern with Favs at -150 or more. I may be incorporating a change in the future to account for these...........
Today's picks are:
St. Louis Cardinals -148
Cleveland Indians 122
Detroit Tigers 109
Atlanta Braves -141
Boston Red Sox -104
Tampa Bay Rays 148
Los Angeles Dodgers 105
I am also now noticing a pattern with Favs at -150 or more. I may be incorporating a change in the future to account for these...........
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 28th, 2012 at 7:47:07 AM
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Have you gone over all your picks and seen what would have happened had you bet the opposite way ?
April 28th, 2012 at 8:27:21 AM
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I haven't, but I would guess that it would be around a +1,100 give or take a few.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 28th, 2012 at 8:32:41 AM
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BTW, the change on the -150 Favs that I mentioned earlier is exactly what you are implying that I do. I found that picks of -150 Favs that I have made have accounted for nearly all of my losses. So my intention is to flip those in the future.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 28th, 2012 at 11:34:28 AM
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OMG! Steeldco , are you at it again? lol You are failing miserably in baseball too?? Just face it, you shouldn't bet..period! If you are doing it purely for entertainment purposes, then that is fine... but I wouldn't continue to boast to the forum that you have a winning formula.. just say that you like to pick games and monitor how you do for fun. Just trying to help.
Now, to the good stuff. I haven't been on the forum since I showed posted a documented net win in basketball. I just started looking at baseball, which is where I have made big bucks in the past. Ill show you how its done. Minimal risk for large payouts. Bookies don't want my action. I beat em up.
So, the way I play is I take one or two straigh games which are my money games, then I do a nice parlay for the just a little less than my straight wager.. basically, I shoot to win the parlay and the straight wager is my hedge since parlays are hard to hit.. but baseball is not that difficult.
- 800 on the over 7.5 Redsox (wow is that way too low.. boston alone is scoring 10 runs a game.
- 500 four team parlay with redsox over 7.5, phils run line +140, rockies run line +145, n reds run line +110. (This parlay pays 11,500) All 4 must win.
Im also going to throw 800 on the over in giants game 6.5. I just spotted that Lincecum is pitching. He sucks now that he is off the steroids. He can't even throw the ball 90 mph anymore. He will get hit.. and the giants should put up a few runs as well.
So, in total, there are 3 plays with a risk of 2260 (880, 880, n 500).. max win could be 13,100.
Good Luck
Now, to the good stuff. I haven't been on the forum since I showed posted a documented net win in basketball. I just started looking at baseball, which is where I have made big bucks in the past. Ill show you how its done. Minimal risk for large payouts. Bookies don't want my action. I beat em up.
So, the way I play is I take one or two straigh games which are my money games, then I do a nice parlay for the just a little less than my straight wager.. basically, I shoot to win the parlay and the straight wager is my hedge since parlays are hard to hit.. but baseball is not that difficult.
- 800 on the over 7.5 Redsox (wow is that way too low.. boston alone is scoring 10 runs a game.
- 500 four team parlay with redsox over 7.5, phils run line +140, rockies run line +145, n reds run line +110. (This parlay pays 11,500) All 4 must win.
Im also going to throw 800 on the over in giants game 6.5. I just spotted that Lincecum is pitching. He sucks now that he is off the steroids. He can't even throw the ball 90 mph anymore. He will get hit.. and the giants should put up a few runs as well.
So, in total, there are 3 plays with a risk of 2260 (880, 880, n 500).. max win could be 13,100.
Good Luck
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
April 29th, 2012 at 7:11:24 AM
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Yesterday was a net gain of +73 and left me at a YTD of -1,170. The subset of +130dogs was -100 yesterday and that YTD is now +151.
Today's picks are:
Pittsburgh Pirates 155
Baltimore Orioles -106
New York Mets -110
Texas Rangers -128
Watchmewin, that wasn't a very good start for you. Better Luck to you!
Today's picks are:
Pittsburgh Pirates 155
Baltimore Orioles -106
New York Mets -110
Texas Rangers -128
Watchmewin, that wasn't a very good start for you. Better Luck to you!
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
April 29th, 2012 at 8:47:22 AM
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Its ok...
Today Im taking a 4 team parlay for 1000... pays 25K
Reds RL +110
Nationals RL +155
Yankess RL +110
Red Sox RL +135
And a straight up 1500 bet on Yankees RL. 1500 pays 1650
Good Luck
Today Im taking a 4 team parlay for 1000... pays 25K
Reds RL +110
Nationals RL +155
Yankess RL +110
Red Sox RL +135
And a straight up 1500 bet on Yankees RL. 1500 pays 1650
Good Luck
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
April 30th, 2012 at 4:36:57 AM
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Yesterday was a net loss of -28 and that leaves me at -1,198 for the year. The +130dogs was -100 yesterday and stands at +51 for the year.........and if you like dogs...today's picks are:
Arizona DiamondBacks 150
Baltimore Orioles 158
Oakland Athletics 150
New York Mets -110
Minnesota Twins 215
Arizona DiamondBacks 150
Baltimore Orioles 158
Oakland Athletics 150
New York Mets -110
Minnesota Twins 215
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 1st, 2012 at 6:51:39 AM
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WTF.....why is that when you think you're on to something.....it goes south. Amazing.
Yesterday was a net loss of -260 and YTD is now -1,458. The +130dogs lost -150 and are now -99 YTD.
Today's picks are:
Philadelphia Phillies 115
Oakland Athletics 156
Yesterday was a net loss of -260 and YTD is now -1,458. The +130dogs lost -150 and are now -99 YTD.
Today's picks are:
Philadelphia Phillies 115
Oakland Athletics 156
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 1st, 2012 at 2:48:28 PM
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Sorry. I had missed one.
Pittsburgh 170
is also a pick today.
Pittsburgh 170
is also a pick today.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 2nd, 2012 at 2:58:16 AM
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Quote: steeldcoWTF.....why is that when you think you're on to something.....it goes south.
That is because it is futile to try to win consistently. Very few bettors make a profit in the long run at sports betting, well, actually any type of gambling. Your stats are useless, the research is useless. Just when things line up just right.....BAM....something unforeseen happens. The guy hitting .142 goes 4-5 with 6 RBI, a 6.12 ERA pitcher throws a no-no through 8 1/3. They (the books) are better than we are...much, much better. That is what they do, not what they "play around" with. The do make some mistakes occasionally. But remember, they don't care who wins. Took me A LONG LONG LONG time to realize this, and I actually thought that I was pretty good at handicapping college football. And maybe I am better than a lot of folks. My advice would be to make some plays for fun, but to stop wasting time trying to find "a system" to consistently win.....
I remember an old timer telling me once that as long as you are betting on people, there is no way you can win in the end. I believe him.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
May 2nd, 2012 at 6:42:41 AM
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LOL......that one should have stayed missed. Anyway, a winning day with a gain of +171 which left my YTD at -1,287. The +130dogs were a gain of +56 yesterday and the YTD is now -43.
Today's picks are:
Kansas City Royals 230
Houston Astros -134
Colorado Rockies 145
Arizona DiamondBacks 109
Pittsburgh Pirates 157
Today's picks are:
Kansas City Royals 230
Houston Astros -134
Colorado Rockies 145
Arizona DiamondBacks 109
Pittsburgh Pirates 157
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 2nd, 2012 at 6:46:11 AM
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avargov,
You will probably end up being right, but this point, I am not convinced. I will continue, and I do firmly believe that a way will be found........the fun is in the hunt.
You will probably end up being right, but this point, I am not convinced. I will continue, and I do firmly believe that a way will be found........the fun is in the hunt.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 2nd, 2012 at 11:23:55 AM
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Things is if you can hit 60% (which is huge) there will be positive and negative streaks. Just plot a random path of 60% hits over time and you'll see your bank balance move all over the place at the micro level.
What happened to WatchMe? Did he swing and miss?
What happened to WatchMe? Did he swing and miss?
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
May 2nd, 2012 at 2:15:01 PM
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I don't know what happened to him. Hope he was playing with real cash there......hope he's okay.
My bank balance moving all over the place.....sounds exciting.....
My bank balance moving all over the place.....sounds exciting.....
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 2nd, 2012 at 2:15:31 PM
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I meant to say NOT playing with real cash. Sorry.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 3rd, 2012 at 5:20:30 AM
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As I said before, it is soooo friggin' nice to pick a big dog and see it come in. Exhilerating.....
A winning day yesterday of +275 and YTD is now -1,012. The +130dogs were +275 yesterday and YTD they are now +232.
Today's picks are:
Atlanta Braves -126
Pittsburgh Pirates 142
Miami Marlins -108
Cleveland Indians 108
Damn Pirates again.............
A winning day yesterday of +275 and YTD is now -1,012. The +130dogs were +275 yesterday and YTD they are now +232.
Today's picks are:
Atlanta Braves -126
Pittsburgh Pirates 142
Miami Marlins -108
Cleveland Indians 108
Damn Pirates again.............
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 3rd, 2012 at 3:14:49 PM
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Wow....I see that the Pirates won. Amazing. I guess that bitchin' about something helps..........
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 4th, 2012 at 4:02:14 AM
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On a little bit of a roll here.....
Yesterday was a net win of +250 which left my YTD at -762. The +130dogs were +142 yesterday and they are now +374 on YTD.
Today's picks are:
Chicago White Sox -105
Baltimore Orioles 152
Houston Astros 137
Kansas City Royals 150
Miami Marlins -122
San Francisco Giants -108
Yesterday was a net win of +250 which left my YTD at -762. The +130dogs were +142 yesterday and they are now +374 on YTD.
Today's picks are:
Chicago White Sox -105
Baltimore Orioles 152
Houston Astros 137
Kansas City Royals 150
Miami Marlins -122
San Francisco Giants -108
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 5th, 2012 at 6:21:11 AM
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Clawing back the prior losses.....again, love it when the dogs hit. Unfortunately today's slate doesn't much appeal to me, but it is was it is. We'll see what happens. Yesterday was a net win of +76 which brought my YTD to -686. The subset of +130dogs was a winner to the tune of +189 and that brings my YTD on those to +563.
Today's picks are:
Washington Nationals -131
Baltimore Orioles 105
Cincinnati Reds -102
Atlanta Braves -115
San Diego Padres 109
Today's picks are:
Washington Nationals -131
Baltimore Orioles 105
Cincinnati Reds -102
Atlanta Braves -115
San Diego Padres 109
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 6th, 2012 at 7:10:07 AM
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Excellent.............another winning day. Consistantcy is all that I seek and I'm starting to see some, although it's only been a short time and too early to tell.
Yesterday's net win of +103 leaves me with 5 straight winning days. YTD is now 583. There were no +130dogs yesterday and YTD remains at +563 for those.
Today's picks are:
Cleveland Indians 154
Pittsburgh Pirates 115
LA Angels of Anaheim -126
Seattle Mariners -124
Yesterday's net win of +103 leaves me with 5 straight winning days. YTD is now 583. There were no +130dogs yesterday and YTD remains at +563 for those.
Today's picks are:
Cleveland Indians 154
Pittsburgh Pirates 115
LA Angels of Anaheim -126
Seattle Mariners -124
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 6th, 2012 at 7:11:16 AM
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Sorry. YTD should read as -583.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 7th, 2012 at 6:24:36 AM
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Nice......that now makes 6 straight winning day. I was +254 yesterday which took my YTD to -329. Also, the +130dogs had 1 pick that hit for +154 which made the YTD on those a +717. Today's picks are:
New York Mets 180
Baltimore Orioles 137
Miami Marlins 105
Chicago Cubs 116
Boston Red Sox -110
St. Louis Cardinals -116
Detroit Tigers -131
Philadelphia Phillies 102
New York Mets 180
Baltimore Orioles 137
Miami Marlins 105
Chicago Cubs 116
Boston Red Sox -110
St. Louis Cardinals -116
Detroit Tigers -131
Philadelphia Phillies 102
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 7th, 2012 at 9:51:52 AM
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Where you getting your lines from?
Also, Mets and Phillies are playing each other.
Also, Mets and Phillies are playing each other.
May 7th, 2012 at 9:58:08 AM
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Sorry. I just took a look at my report, it looks like some of yesterday's slate was carried over to today's................I will correct and post a revised set of picks.
Thank you. I get the lines from SBG.
Thank you. I get the lines from SBG.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
