Underdogs and Moneylines

I literally have put zero thought into this. I work grave shift, so I am about to sleep but I think some of you would like to fancy this idea. I will post later on... but here's where I am at.

Short Version:
How good of an idea would it be to bet an underdog ATS and also bet them moneyline.


Longer Version:

I have mainly bet ATS for football and basketball. Only during playoffs do I even considering betting MLB or NHL.. so I rarely use moneylines at all.

However, the Pitt/South Florida game on Thursday... the line was USF [-3] .. and I figured Pitt to be huge winners (which they were). So I bet the money line Pitt [+120]. Obviously a win like that made me feel good because it is very rare for me to bet moneyline.

Today I really liked the 49ers to beat Eagles. Eagles were [-10] and 49ers were [+390 money line].. I bet 49ers ATS.. 49ers won straight up.

What I am thinking is... Lets say I am willing to bet 100$ per game. How much value would I have in betting 50 ATS, 50 ML

The Wiz says, "thou shalt not hedge" but this is one of the few rules of his I disagree on. Might be a finance background of mine vs a math background on his part, or might just be personal philosiphy.

I say why not hedge to lock in a win if you are treating sprots-betting as a long-term deal. Or why not hedge to sort of "make your own line."

My advice would be to do it this way. Lets take a standard -110 spread bet. You have $200 to bet. Put $110 of it on the spread. Put the remaining $90 on the moneyline. Do this and if you cover the spread you have a "free" moneyline bet plus $10 for a few beers while you watch the game.

The disclaimer is do not use more than your budget to do this. IOW, don't jump from $100 to $200 bet levels just because AZD gave you an idea on a chat board. When you consider that even the best teams will lose 25% of their games (ie: go 12-4) and most teams should fall between 7-9 and 10-6 outright, there is some logic to trying this.

Good luck.

My motto is never bet what you can not afford to lose

I think I would find some stats on dogs winning outright. I am 23-4 picking ML favorites this year in CFB. 0-2 picking ML dogs. I haven't checked yet, but I think around 50% covered ATS. I will look into the numbers this afternoon if I can find the old spreads (I have the MLs and can probably get close).

Anyway, my opinion is that you would generally lose the profit from the spread bet.

Always bet your strongest bet. A hedge just guarantees you win win less when you win. SUCKER PLAY.

Joe:

This is pretty close based on the 29 bets I have placed this year. There were a couple of games that the hook could have gone either way, so my numbers ATS may be off by a game or two, but maybe not.

Underdogs win outright: 4-25
Underdogs cover: 12-17


The 12 covers obviously include the 4 outright wins. Also, these are just my bets, and in 27 of them, I was looking for the favorite to win outright so I didn't look or consider the spread.

I think I remember The Wizard having some more in depth stats about this. Of course we are polar opposites in our betting strategies. But his numbers will include a far greater number of games.

I will keep better stats for the remainder of the season for the dogs covering.

I had SF money line too today, which was sweet, but still didn't make up for an overall losing day, thanks to no other significant underdogs coming in.

I strongly feel that if you are an underdog bettor, and have the time and ability to shop around, you are better off betting the money line. It takes a stronger stomach, but the advantages are greater. For one thing, there is a lot more volatility in money lines from book to book. You are much more likely to find a soft number on a money line than the spread.

If you are more of a recreational bettor, and need the more frequent wins against the spread for emotional reasons, I would encourage you to at least divide your bet and put some of it on the money line, as long as you are getting a competitive number.

I have a database going back to 78 with ATS results. I know it can be formatted better and explained better but here is the abridged version.

I ran query at the start of the season and posted at another forum.

I'm a numbers guy, so here goes my research results.

Favorites of 3 points that win, cover about 90% of the time.

Favorites win 66% of the time, cover 48% of the time.

Did you know that since 1978-2010 there have been 7,704 regular season games? 7,689 wins 15 ties.
15 ties, home team is 5-10 ATS
S/U winner is 6,240-1,241-208 ATS (83.4%)

HOME TEAM 4,453-3,236-15 (57.9% wins)

Straight Up
Favorites 4,996 wins (66.08%) 4,996-2,564-15
HF S/U 3,467-1,646-10 (67.8%)
RF S/U 1,529-918-5 (62.48)
Pick'em 129 games
Dogs 2,564 wins (33.92%)

ATS
Favorites 3,547-3,820-208 (48.14%)
Home Favorites 2,417-2,566-140 (48.50%)
Road Favorites 1,130-1,254-68 (47.39%)

Point Spread S/U W S/U L S/U T ats W ATS L ATS P
A -23.5 1 0 0 100.00 0 1 0 0.00
A -18.5 1 0 0 100.00 0 1 0 0.00
A -17.5 1 0 0 100.00 0 1 0 0.00
A -16.5 0 1 0 0.00 0 1 0 0.00
A -16 2 0 0 100.00 2 0 0 100.00
A -15.5 2 0 0 100.00 2 0 0 100.00
A -15 2 0 0 100.00 0 2 0 0.00
A -14.5 6 0 0 100.00 4 2 0 66.67
A -14 11 1 0 91.67 5 7 0 41.67
A -13.5 8 0 0 100.00 3 5 0 37.50
A -13 8 4 0 66.67 5 7 0 41.67
A -12.5 6 1 0 85.71 3 4 0 42.86
A -12 6 2 0 75.00 2 5 1 28.57
A -11.5 2 2 0 50.00 1 3 0 25.00
A -11 14 3 0 82.35 8 9 0 47.06
A -10.5 17 6 0 73.91 11 12 0 47.83
A -10 32 11 0 74.42 14 27 2 34.15
A -9.5 28 8 1 77.78 16 21 0 43.24
A -9 29 16 1 64.44 18 28 0 39.13
A -8.5 22 5 0 81.48 13 14 0 48.15
A -8 31 11 0 73.81 20 21 1 48.78
A -7.5 31 14 0 68.89 17 28 0 37.78
A -7 109 37 1 74.66 72 69 6 51.06
A -6.5 80 33 0 70.80 56 57 0 49.56
A -6 90 40 0 69.23 60 67 3 47.24
A -5.5 59 25 0 70.24 42 42 0 50.00
A -5 52 29 0 64.20 31 48 2 39.24
A -4.5 63 25 0 71.59 51 37 0 57.95
A -4 98 53 0 64.90 68 76 7 47.22
A -3.5 125 79 1 61.27 94 111 0 45.85
A -3 271 199 1 57.66 211 223 37 48.62
A -2.5 104 105 0 49.76 96 113 0 45.93
A -2 76 60 0 55.88 67 63 6 51.54
A -1.5 45 59 0 43.27 44 60 0 42.31
A -1 97 89 0 52.15 94 89 3 51.37


H -24.5 1 0 0 100.00 0 1 0 0.00
H -24 1 0 0 100.00 0 1 0 0.00
H -22.5 1 0 0 100.00 0 1 0 0.00
H -21 1 0 0 100.00 0 1 0 0.00
H -20.5 1 0 0 100.00 0 1 0 0.00
H -20 2 0 0 100.00 1 1 0 50.00
H -19.5 1 0 0 100.00 0 1 0 0.00
H -19 3 0 0 100.00 1 2 0 33.33
H -18.5 1 0 0 100.00 1 0 0 100.00
H -18 7 0 0 100.00 2 5 0 28.57
H -17.5 4 1 0 80.00 2 3 0 40.00
H -17 15 2 0 88.24 7 7 3 50.00
H -16.5 3 0 0 100.00 2 1 0 66.67
H -16 16 1 0 94.12 7 10 0 41.18
H -15.5 13 0 0 100.00 9 4 0 69.23
H -15 16 0 0 100.00 7 9 0 43.75
H -14.5 22 5 0 81.48 9 18 0 33.33
H -14 47 12 0 79.66 23 32 4 41.82
H -13.5 52 17 0 75.36 29 40 0 42.03
H -13 65 8 0 89.04 41 31 1 56.94
H -12.5 30 5 0 85.71 17 18 0 48.57
H -12 47 8 0 85.45 23 32 0 41.82
H -11.5 29 5 0 85.29 16 18 0 47.06
H -11 67 14 0 82.72 31 47 3 39.74
H -10.5 65 20 0 76.47 38 47 0 44.71
H -10 144 34 0 80.90 86 84 8 50.59
H -9.5 96 24 0 80.00 64 56 0 53.33
H -9 146 34 0 81.11 90 90 0 50.00
H -8.5 79 16 0 83.16 43 52 0 45.26
H -8 98 33 1 74.81 66 65 1 50.38
H -7.5 122 33 0 78.71 79 76 0 50.97
H -7 266 108 1 71.12 165 196 14 45.71
H -6.5 175 104 0 62.72 119 160 0 42.65
H -6 213 95 1 69.16 158 139 12 53.20
H -5.5 120 55 3 68.57 83 95 0 46.63
H -5 120 50 0 70.59 86 78 6 52.44
H -4.5 122 63 1 65.95 89 97 0 47.85
H -4 181 112 0 61.77 146 143 4 50.52
H -3.5 240 150 1 61.54 178 213 0 45.52
H -3 393 273 0 59.01 286 306 74 48.31
H -2.5 142 116 1 55.04 127 132 0 49.03
H -2 123 100 1 55.16 113 105 6 51.83
H -1.5 61 63 0 49.19 61 63 0 49.19
H -1 116 85 0 57.71 112 85 4 56.85


ATS Breakdown
Dogs 2,564-0 (duh, S/U dogs win ATS all the time)
ROAD/HOME FAVORITES S/U ONLY ATS
Road Game Point Spread S/U W ats W ATS L ATS P %
A -23.5 1 0 1 0 0.00
A -18.5 1 0 1 0 0.00
A -17.5 1 0 1 0 0.00
A -16 2 2 0 0 100.00
A -15.5 2 2 0 0 100.00
A -15 2 0 2 0 0.00
A -14.5 6 4 2 0 66.67
A -14 11 5 6 0 45.45
A -13.5 8 3 5 0 37.50
A -13 8 5 3 0 62.50
A -12.5 6 3 3 0 50.00
A -12 6 2 3 1 40.00
A -11.5 2 1 1 0 50.00
A -11 14 8 6 0 57.14
A -10.5 17 11 6 0 64.71
A -10 32 14 16 2 46.67
A -9.5 28 16 12 0 57.14
A -9 29 18 11 0 62.07
A -8.5 22 13 9 0 59.09
A -8 31 20 10 1 66.67
A -7.5 31 17 14 0 54.84
A -7 109 72 31 6 69.90
A -6.5 80 56 24 0 70.00
A -6 90 60 27 3 68.97
A -5.5 59 42 17 0 71.19
A -5 52 31 19 2 62.00
A -4.5 63 51 12 0 80.95
A -4 98 68 23 7 74.73
A -3.5 125 94 31 0 75.20
A -3 271 211 23 37 90.17
A -2.5 104 96 8 0 92.31
A -2 76 67 3 6 95.71
A -1.5 45 44 1 0 97.78
A -1 97 94 0 3 100.00




H -24.5 1 0 1 0 0.00
H -24 1 0 1 0 0.00
H -22.5 1 0 1 0 0.00
H -21 1 0 1 0 0.00
H -20.5 1 0 1 0 0.00
H -20 2 1 1 0 50.00
H -19.5 1 0 1 0 0.00
H -19 3 1 2 0 33.33
H -18.5 1 1 0 0 100.00
H -18 7 2 5 0 28.57
H -17.5 4 2 2 0 50.00
H -17 15 7 5 3 58.33
H -16.5 3 2 1 0 66.67
H -16 16 7 9 0 43.75
H -15.5 13 9 4 0 69.23
H -15 16 7 9 0 43.75
H -14.5 22 9 13 0 40.91
H -14 47 23 20 4 53.49
H -13.5 52 29 23 0 55.77
H -13 65 41 23 1 64.06
H -12.5 30 17 13 0 56.67
H -12 47 23 24 0 48.94
H -11.5 29 16 13 0 55.17
H -11 67 31 33 3 48.44
H -10.5 65 38 27 0 58.46
H -10 144 86 50 8 63.24
H -9.5 96 64 32 0 66.67
H -9 146 90 56 0 61.64
H -8.5 79 43 36 0 54.43
H -8 98 66 31 1 68.04
H -7.5 122 79 43 0 64.75
H -7 266 165 87 14 65.48
H -6.5 175 119 56 0 68.00
H -6 213 158 43 12 78.61
H -5.5 120 83 37 0 69.17
H -5 120 86 28 6 75.44
H -4.5 122 89 33 0 72.95
H -4 181 146 31 4 82.49
H -3.5 240 178 62 0 74.17
H -3 393 286 33 74 89.66
H -2.5 142 127 15 0 89.44
H -2 123 113 4 6 96.58
H -1.5 61 61 0 0 100.00
H -1 116 112 0 4 100.00
Grand 4996 3547 1241 208 74.08

Quote: TaxmanCPA

Favorites win 66% of the time, cover 48% of the time.

If this is correct it seems you should bet underdogs on the spread and that will cover you to put money on the favorites for the moneyline?

Quote: AZDuffman

If this is correct it seems you should bet underdogs on the spread and that will cover you to put money on the favorites for the moneyline?

That is called an English middle. I can't respect any strategy betting favorites on the money line -- one of the worst strategies in sports betting.

Does anyone have a data base that shows how teams won against the spread? I mean if they were 3 point dogs and lost by 17.
Or 3 point favorites and won by 35. Wondering if a system that caused 3 bookies to stop taking a friend's action in the 1980's still works today !

I do. I should update and publish my results. A problem arises with key numbers in football. A 2.5-point favorite is a lot different than a 3.5-point favorite. Yet, the number of games in the sample size doesn't make the distinction clear. I'll explain it all more greater depth later.

I can not vouch for the accuracy of this system. Only that my friend made a killing with it. I can see some of it's possibilities and he may have refined it as to home, road, injured quarterback etc. Anybody that has ever played a game of skill for money will understand the human effect.
Hustling on a bar pool table is a king of the hill situation. Invariably a good player will defeat 2 or 3 good players in a row only to lose to one of the fishes. How many times have you see the best football team just let a worse one hang on and next thing you know, the better team loses.
That's just one part of the equation. The line in football is just that. THE LINE. The number that hopefully will have 50% of the action on each team. It moves a little to accomplish that. Sometimes a bookie has to offer a nickle line to a few select big betters to even things up. Bookies do NOT like to gamble.

My friend system was to bet the team who had performed worse against the spread last game versus a team that had beaten the spread handily. Team A is a 3 pt favorite and loses by 17. Team B was pickem and won by 21. Total is 41. He usually demanded 30 pt difference and only had 6 or 7 plays a year back then. But he went 2 and a half seasons once without a loss.

If I was betting football, no matter what system, I would limit myself to a low number of games. Maybe not this low, but no more than 1 or 2 a weekend. Anybody who thinks they can beat the vig over a big number of games is WRONG!!

Buzzpaff said " If I was betting football, no matter what system, I would limit myself to a low number of games. Maybe not this low, but no more than 1 or 2 a weekend. Anybody who thinks they can beat the vig over a big number of games is WRONG!! "
Amen Brother!
I think you have a better chance at the beginning of the season before the handicappers can account for how another turn of the world around the sun has affected the teams.

But then, what do you do for the rest of the year? But I see your point. Most betters are betting on last year's teams.

Quote: buzzpaff

But then, what do you do for the rest of the year? But I see your point. Most betters are betting on last year's teams.

More importantly most handicappers are handicapping last years teams. The rest of the year? Hard to beat people who handicap for a living LOL I just bet on the team that seems to have momentum.

The 'money line' is a difficult bet. Last weekend, the college game I loved the most was Northwestern +10 @ Illinois. The NW ML was +300. My friend wanted to take the ML and I talked him out of it because the +10/+300 spread/ML was not comparable. I explained and he understood that there was more action on the ML, becuase generally in the Vegas books or online a +10 point spread should have a money line at +350 or +400 or slightly more.

Long story short, taking the +10, the game was never in doubt as Northwestern was winning most of the way. And my friend was thankful that he didn't invest in the M/L as Illinois won the game in the final minute.

Also, shy away from parlaying anything with large money lines. Case in point, look at the Eagles dominating the 1H of the SF game, only to let them come off the mat and take them down. The Bally's sportsbook was pretty quiet when the game ended. Books love games like that as they are parlay busters. But there is minimal value in it for the bettor as well.

You don't have to bet every game. Also, never bet with your heart, you will be the square.

Good luck!

LOL I can relate to the silence in the sportsbook thing. I was in AC last year when NY let Philly come back on them in the 4th Qtr.

" Also, shy away from parlaying anything with large money lines. "

I have always shied away from parlays because of the vig. But wonder if any Vegas books offer " If & Reverse " bets ??

Buzz,

If Wiz doesn't post before me, I will post by tomorrow.

I am also working on a query of ATS W/L and O/U streaks of 4. It goes with the same premise you stated above, sighting value of teams not covering ATS or overvalue of teams covering ATS.

Based on the readings... here... I have decided that

1. If I am going to bet an underdog moneyline, I will not hedge the bet by betting ATS.

2. I will not bet favorite moneyline and underdog ATS

Thanks!!!

Today I took the Boise State over, Brewers over, and Phillies moneyline

Okay, here is some good stuff for you guys. I spent quite a bit of time getting this together for you.

First, the following table shows the results of every underdog from the 2000 to 2010 seasons. The "estimated percentage" is my estimate after smoothing out the ups and downs. The Money line is the fair money line based on the estimated probability of winning.

Spread	wins	games	Actual	Estimated	Money Line
0	35	70	50.0%	50.0%	100
1	52	102	51.0%	46.8%	114
1.5	42	96	43.8%	45.2%	121
2	47	88	53.4%	43.6%	129
2.5	66	144	45.8%	42.0%	138
3	245	592	41.4%	40.5%	147
3.5	88	251	35.1%	38.9%	157
4	29	115	25.2%	37.4%	167
4.5	32	87	36.8%	35.9%	179
5	31	82	37.8%	34.4%	190
5.5	37	111	33.3%	33.0%	203
6	49	147	33.3%	31.6%	217
6.5	45	156	28.8%	30.2%	231
7	58	196	29.6%	28.9%	246
7.5	30	90	33.3%	27.6%	263
8	10	62	16.1%	26.3%	280
8.5	10	55	18.2%	25.1%	299
9	18	81	22.2%	23.9%	319
9.5	16	76	21.1%	22.7%	340
10	15	69	21.7%	21.6%	363
10.5	16	64	25.0%	20.5%	387
11	3	30	10.0%	19.5%	413
11.5	2	11	18.2%	18.5%	440
12	3	12	25.0%	17.6%	469
12.5	5	20	25.0%	16.7%	501
13	4	27	14.8%	15.8%	534
13.5	9	37	24.3%	14.9%	569
14	5	27	18.5%	14.1%	607
14.5	2	14	14.3%	13.4%	648
15	0	5	0.0%	12.6%	691
15.5	0	6	0.0%	12.0%	737
16	0	8	0.0%	11.3%	786
16.5	0	8	0.0%	10.7%	838
17	0	3	0.0%	10.1%	894
17.5	0	0	0.0%	9.5%	953
18	0	2	0.0%	9.0%	1,017
18.5	0	1	0.0%	8.4%	1,084
19	0	0	0.0%	8.0%	1,156
19.5	0	2	0.0%	7.5%	1,233
20	0	1	0.0%	7.1%	1,315
20.5	0	0	0.0%	6.7%	1,403
21	0	1	0.0%	6.3%	1,496
21.5	0	0	0.0%	5.9%	1,596
22	0	1	0.0%	5.5%	1,702
22.5	0	0	0.0%	5.2%	1,815
23	0	0	0.0%	4.9%	1,936
23.5	0	0	0.0%	4.6%	2,065
24	0	1	0.0%	4.3%	2,202

The following graph shows the actual win percentages and my trend curve.



Let's look at a practical application. The Chicago Bears are a 6 point underdog tonight. My graph would suggest they have a 31.6% chance of winning, translating to a fair money line of +217. Most places have the Bears money line at +200 or +220. The Hilton has them at +235, which I think is a strong bet, but not worth driving over there for.

Another thing I don't consider above is key numbers in football. There is a big difference between a 2.5- and 3.5-point underdog. For example, I would say the chances of a 2.5-point underdog winning are greater than my estimated 42%, and less than 38.9% for a 3.5-point underdog. That adjustment will be left to the reader, in the interests of not muddying the waters.

Very interesting... A fifteen plus point underdog has never won.... I wonder if there's value in your estimated curve bing non continous, with breaks at the key vales (3 and 7)? Eyeballing it, it looks to high, and the actuals don't look like they line up with the table... The 10% point should be for minus eleven...

Do you have, and can you share the win/ loss against the spread for each of these dog lines? Or or home ogs? Or did you already?

As an aside, I think tonight's line should be about minus four... The line has shifted too far based on a long winning streak for the Lions.

I know this thread is about underdogs, but do you have the money lines for the favored teams? It seems that you would want to bet the underdog for a 2 or 2.5 point spread, but you may want to bet the favored team on a 3 or 3.5 spread, depending on the money line.

Also, for the books that have the Bears at +200, do they have a better money line for the Lions than the other books?

Thanks for the great info and brain candy.

Quote: thecesspit

Eyeballing it, it looks to high, and the actuals don't look like they line up with the table... The 10% point should be for minus eleven...

Do you have, and can you share the win/ loss against the spread for each of these dog lines? Or or home ogs? Or did you already?

As an aside, I think tonight's line should be about minus four... The line has shifted too far based on a long winning streak for the Lions.

You're right the data was not aligned properly. Bug in Excel. It is no easy task getting these charts the way you want. I could break this down by home dog and away dog, but it wouldn't make much different, trust me. In my opinion an x-point underdog has just as good a chance of winning at home as away.

About the game tonight, all the late action seems to be coming on Detroit. Stations even has them at -7. You can now get Bears money line at +270 at the Hilton and Lucky's, which I think is a great bet.

Quote: CrystalMath

I know this thread is about underdogs, but do you have the money lines for the favored teams? It seems that you would want to bet the underdog for a 2 or 2.5 point spread, but you may want to bet the favored team on a 3 or 3.5 spread, depending on the money line.

Also, for the books that have the Bears at +200, do they have a better money line for the Lions than the other books?

Thanks for the great info and brain candy.

You're welcome. To get my fair lines for the favorites, just multiply by -1. For example, I have a 7-point dog at +246, so a 7-point favorite should be -246. The books know a 2.5-dog is a lot more likely to win the game than a 3.5-point dog, and will reflect it in the money lines. Except for the Super Bowl, you should simply never bet favorites on the money line. Except for the Super Bowl, my advice is bet favorites against the spread, and underdogs against the money line, assuming you're getting at least the average market price. There is a lot more variation in money lines from book to book, so you have to shop around.

Curious here... was one of the 14½-point underdog wins the Giants/Patriots Super Bowl? I don't remember where the line went off but I recall 14½ and even 15-point lines in Reno, and bettable at true even money rather than -110. I recall money lines of +700 Giants.

Quote: Wizard

Okay, here is some good stuff for you guys. I spent quite a bit of time getting this together for you.

That is great stuff! Thank you very much.

Mike, that is a beautiful piece of relevant work. Any sports bettor should take your post and put it on the wall. Very nice, succinct, and understandable.

OK. I understand now. At first I thought that the lines were based on historical data, but now I realize that you calculated the lines to pay even money based on the estimated win percentage.

If it were based on historical numbers, then we would see a difference in the lines to account for the book's profit (right?).

Thanks for all the compliments above. Stay tuned for the same thing with college football. I need to buy the data. $220 at DavlerSports.com (ouch!).

In case anyone is wondering, the lines from from the database I purchased at MrNFL.com. I think he got them from various sources.

CM, I'm not sure I understand your comment above. The red line shows what I think is a fair, no advantage, money line, not considering the effect of key numbers in the NFL, mainly 3 and 7. I tried to show today's game as an example where if you believe my method you can get a good value on Bears money line.

I took your data and had a play in Excel.

I did some estimates looking only at 0-7, 3-10 and 7-14 spreads.

I also did my own estimate of a true curve for win percentage at different dog spreads.

The polynomial produced are :

Overall : Percentage Win Chance = 0.00003x^3 - 0.00059x^2 - 0.02708x + 0.50000 (x = spread offered)
0-7 : %age win = 0.0018x^3 - 0.0172x^2 + 0.0069x + 0.5
3-10 : %age win = -0.0002x^3 + 0.0034x^2 - 0.0462x + 0.5
7-14 : %age win =0.0002x^3 - 0.0024x^2 - 0.0258x + 0.5

The R^2 fit was :

Overall = 0.91
0-7 = 0.73
3-10 = 0.61
7-14 = 0.20

Meaning only the first two are particularly good fit lines for the data.

I set them all to intercept the y-axis at 0.5 (hence the last term). This might be an error....

What that looks like is :



Dashed Line = Overall estimate
Green Line = Estimate for 0-7 point spreads
Red Line = Estimate for 3-10 point spreads
Blue Line = Estimate for 7-14 point spreads

Cheers.

Quote: Wizard

You're right the data was not aligned properly. Bug in Excel. It is no easy task getting these charts the way you want. I could break this down by home dog and away dog, but it wouldn't make much different, trust me. In my opinion an x-point underdog has just as good a chance of winning at home as away.

I was more meaning the win/loss against the spread rather than the money line. Do the spreads mostly split 50/50 for dogs and favourites, or are there spreads where the dog has historically won (with points) much more than 50%

Quote:

About the game tonight, all the late action seems to be coming on Detroit. Stations even has them at -7. You can now get Bears money line at +270 at the Hilton and Lucky's, which I think is a great bet.

Bears -7 is a bet I'd make if I wasn't wearing my Lions jersey for tonights game, and they weren't having such a great season so far. A lot will depend on the Chicago Rush offence versus the Lions Run defence. If the Bears don't get behind early, and Cutler doesn't have to throw to win the game, then this will be at least close, if not a Bears win.

If the Lions get up early, Cutler won't get the pass protection he needs, and Suh and KVB will have a field day.

And if Stafford goes down... :(

I don't use parabolic regression, because the probabilities can dip below zero for extreme values. This is more of an issue in college football, where you get very large points spreads.

Going against the spread, any math-based sports bettor knows that underdogs are the way to go. There are no special numbers, other than I think you need to get to about +3 to see the benefit. Wong's book suggests betting home underdogs only, but I think any underdog is fine.

That why I looked to see if there was any patterns for short segments of the graph... there seems to be not enough data at the extremes anyways, and with the estimate giving a 10% chance to a +15 underdog, when none of the 2 dozen 3 score under dogs have won would suggest to me there is no value at all in betting on the money when the lines are that extreme. So why not ignore those outliers and look at the regions we might bet at?

I was guessing that a exponential regression might make a nicer line, but not fit the data as well, which is what I saw when I was looking at the short regions. There's a suggestion that around 11-14 point dogs are generally getting too many points and would be good Money Line bets.

Will be something I will take into account anyways.


I just checked this page to see if you'd broken down dogs by points...:

https://wizardofodds.com/sports/sports_apx2.html

Table 4, where you look at home dogs over a season... I think the headings Win and Loss are reversed.

As I'm curious, I should go look up the data myself :)

Quote: Wizard

CM, I'm not sure I understand your comment above. The red line shows what I think is a fair, no advantage, money line, not considering the effect of key numbers in the NFL, mainly 3 and 7.

This is pretty much what I was trying to say: that you calculated the money lines to have no advantage. If I would have read the thread more carefully, I would have realized that in the first place.

More good stuff for you guys.

Here are the results by point spread in college football. The FML column is the Fair Money Line. For example, a money line on a 7-point underdog of +231 would be exactly fair. Data is from 1983 to 2005.

Spread	wins	games	Actual	Estimated	FML
0	472	944	50.0%	50.0%	100
1	157	331	47.4%	47.0%	113
1.5	132	284	46.5%	45.5%	120
2	141	280	50.4%	44.1%	127
2.5	164	376	43.6%	42.6%	135
3	246	540	45.6%	41.1%	143
3.5	134	358	37.4%	39.7%	152
4	135	337	40.1%	38.3%	161
4.5	93	259	35.9%	36.9%	171
5	74	213	34.7%	35.5%	182
5.5	101	294	34.4%	34.1%	193
6	109	343	31.8%	32.8%	205
6.5	121	383	31.6%	31.5%	217
7	146	493	29.6%	30.2%	231
7.5	84	332	25.3%	29.0%	245
8	73	243	30.0%	27.8%	260
8.5	67	227	29.5%	26.6%	276
9	62	225	27.6%	25.5%	293
9.5	64	250	25.6%	24.3%	311
10	79	320	24.7%	23.3%	330
10.5	43	210	20.5%	22.2%	350
11	56	217	25.8%	21.2%	372
11.5	38	142	26.8%	20.2%	395
12	37	179	20.7%	19.3%	419
12.5	38	176	21.6%	18.4%	445
13	42	237	17.7%	17.5%	472
13.5	42	210	20.0%	16.6%	501
14	56	328	17.1%	15.8%	532
14.5	28	194	14.4%	15.0%	565
15	19	157	12.1%	14.3%	599
15.5	20	123	16.3%	13.6%	636
16	22	171	12.9%	12.9%	675
16.5	14	144	9.7%	12.2%	717
17	29	239	12.1%	11.6%	761
17.5	17	134	12.7%	11.0%	808
18	8	121	6.6%	10.4%	858
18.5	6	89	6.7%	9.9%	910
19	18	142	12.7%	9.4%	966
19.5	10	83	12.0%	8.9%	1,026
20	9	136	6.6%	8.4%	1,089
20.5	12	109	11.0%	8.0%	1,156
21	10	138	7.2%	7.5%	1,227
21.5	4	94	4.3%	7.1%	1,303
22	5	128	3.9%	6.7%	1,383
22.5	7	71	9.9%	6.4%	1,468
23	7	115	6.1%	6.0%	1,558
23.5	5	76	6.6%	5.7%	1,654
24	6	122	4.9%	5.4%	1,756
24.5	3	68	4.4%	5.1%	1,864
25	5	62	8.1%	4.8%	1,978
25.5	2	61	3.3%	4.5%	2,100
26	1	78	1.3%	4.3%	2,229
26.5	4	55	7.3%	4.1%	2,366
27	1	79	1.3%	3.8%	2,512
27.5	2	56	3.6%	3.6%	2,666
28	6	93	6.5%	3.4%	2,830
28.5	2	41	4.9%	3.2%	3,004
29	1	52	1.9%	3.0%	3,189
29.5	1	38	2.6%	2.9%	3,385
30	1	52	1.9%	2.7%	3,594
30.5	3	33	9.1%	2.6%	3,815
31	2	58	3.4%	2.4%	4,049

Here is a nice graph for you.



If you compare these results to what you can find on the open market a good bet is tough to find. Your best odds are shopping the books around Vegas, where you can find some marginally good bets on some games. It is tougher betting offshore. Overall, the advantages are greater betting NFL money lines.

Here is a rare example of what I deem a good bet, see bet 111 on Indiana.



In other words, 210 to 1 on Indiana. My graph doesn't go that high, but I show a 39.5-point underdog fair at 112 to 1. Wish me luck!

Looks like there's a much better fit for the line on this one than in the NFL... is this a case of just a tonne more data?

I hope that was a light bet on the Hoosiers. I don't know much about College Football, but I know the Badgers are a hot team right now... :s

I wonder, could you go the reverse direction? Take the the Money Line from above and generate your own points line and see if this varies enough from the Vegas lines?

(E.g Money Line is +200 for a team, which suggests they should be +6. They are +7 (say for a big shift). Would it be worth taking the points?

Just a thought...

Pretty small bet on Indiana. Probably the biggest long shot I have ever bet in my life.

Yes, there is much more data on college football.

With football, the point spread always comes first, and other bets tend to be based on that. You could always use my chart to go the other way. I would use the money line on the underdog to get the spread, not the favorite.

Quote: Wizard

Pretty small bet on Indiana. Probably the biggest long shot I have ever bet in my life.

Yes, there is much more data on college football.

With football, the point spread always comes first, and other bets tend to be based on that. You could always use my chart to go the other way. I would use the money line on the underdog to get the spread, not the favorite.

Has a 40 point underdog ever won a college football game?

Quote: FinsRule

Has a 40 point underdog ever won a college football game?

Based on the data I have from 1983 to 2005 (12,128 games) the biggest upset was a 35-point underdog winning.

Stanford winning at USC around 4 years ago was about a 41 pt spread

Quote: BrockPhx

Stanford winning at USC around 4 years ago was about a 41 pt spread

I didn't know that. That game is outside of my data, but am happy to hear anytime USC loses, especially against such an inferior team.

Quote: BrockPhx

Stanford winning at USC around 4 years ago was about a 41 pt spread

Stanford won 24-23 as a 38.5 underdog.

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