Short Version:
How good of an idea would it be to bet an underdog ATS and also bet them moneyline.
Longer Version:
I have mainly bet ATS for football and basketball. Only during playoffs do I even considering betting MLB or NHL.. so I rarely use moneylines at all.
However, the Pitt/South Florida game on Thursday... the line was USF [-3] .. and I figured Pitt to be huge winners (which they were). So I bet the money line Pitt [+120]. Obviously a win like that made me feel good because it is very rare for me to bet moneyline.
Today I really liked the 49ers to beat Eagles. Eagles were [-10] and 49ers were [+390 money line].. I bet 49ers ATS.. 49ers won straight up.
What I am thinking is... Lets say I am willing to bet 100$ per game. How much value would I have in betting 50 ATS, 50 ML
I say why not hedge to lock in a win if you are treating sprots-betting as a long-term deal. Or why not hedge to sort of "make your own line."
My advice would be to do it this way. Lets take a standard -110 spread bet. You have $200 to bet. Put $110 of it on the spread. Put the remaining $90 on the moneyline. Do this and if you cover the spread you have a "free" moneyline bet plus $10 for a few beers while you watch the game.
The disclaimer is do not use more than your budget to do this. IOW, don't jump from $100 to $200 bet levels just because AZD gave you an idea on a chat board. When you consider that even the best teams will lose 25% of their games (ie: go 12-4) and most teams should fall between 7-9 and 10-6 outright, there is some logic to trying this.
Good luck.
Anyway, my opinion is that you would generally lose the profit from the spread bet.
This is pretty close based on the 29 bets I have placed this year. There were a couple of games that the hook could have gone either way, so my numbers ATS may be off by a game or two, but maybe not.
Underdogs win outright: 4-25
Underdogs cover: 12-17
The 12 covers obviously include the 4 outright wins. Also, these are just my bets, and in 27 of them, I was looking for the favorite to win outright so I didn't look or consider the spread.
I think I remember The Wizard having some more in depth stats about this. Of course we are polar opposites in our betting strategies. But his numbers will include a far greater number of games.
I will keep better stats for the remainder of the season for the dogs covering.
I strongly feel that if you are an underdog bettor, and have the time and ability to shop around, you are better off betting the money line. It takes a stronger stomach, but the advantages are greater. For one thing, there is a lot more volatility in money lines from book to book. You are much more likely to find a soft number on a money line than the spread.
If you are more of a recreational bettor, and need the more frequent wins against the spread for emotional reasons, I would encourage you to at least divide your bet and put some of it on the money line, as long as you are getting a competitive number.
I ran query at the start of the season and posted at another forum.
I'm a numbers guy, so here goes my research results.
Favorites of 3 points that win, cover about 90% of the time.
Favorites win 66% of the time, cover 48% of the time.
Did you know that since 1978-2010 there have been 7,704 regular season games? 7,689 wins 15 ties.
15 ties, home team is 5-10 ATS
S/U winner is 6,240-1,241-208 ATS (83.4%)
HOME TEAM 4,453-3,236-15 (57.9% wins)
Straight Up
Favorites 4,996 wins (66.08%) 4,996-2,564-15
HF S/U 3,467-1,646-10 (67.8%)
RF S/U 1,529-918-5 (62.48)
Pick'em 129 games
Dogs 2,564 wins (33.92%)
ATS
Favorites 3,547-3,820-208 (48.14%)
Home Favorites 2,417-2,566-140 (48.50%)
Road Favorites 1,130-1,254-68 (47.39%)
Point Spread S/U W S/U L S/U T ats W ATS L ATS P
A -23.5 1 0 0 100.00 0 1 0 0.00
A -18.5 1 0 0 100.00 0 1 0 0.00
A -17.5 1 0 0 100.00 0 1 0 0.00
A -16.5 0 1 0 0.00 0 1 0 0.00
A -16 2 0 0 100.00 2 0 0 100.00
A -15.5 2 0 0 100.00 2 0 0 100.00
A -15 2 0 0 100.00 0 2 0 0.00
A -14.5 6 0 0 100.00 4 2 0 66.67
A -14 11 1 0 91.67 5 7 0 41.67
A -13.5 8 0 0 100.00 3 5 0 37.50
A -13 8 4 0 66.67 5 7 0 41.67
A -12.5 6 1 0 85.71 3 4 0 42.86
A -12 6 2 0 75.00 2 5 1 28.57
A -11.5 2 2 0 50.00 1 3 0 25.00
A -11 14 3 0 82.35 8 9 0 47.06
A -10.5 17 6 0 73.91 11 12 0 47.83
A -10 32 11 0 74.42 14 27 2 34.15
A -9.5 28 8 1 77.78 16 21 0 43.24
A -9 29 16 1 64.44 18 28 0 39.13
A -8.5 22 5 0 81.48 13 14 0 48.15
A -8 31 11 0 73.81 20 21 1 48.78
A -7.5 31 14 0 68.89 17 28 0 37.78
A -7 109 37 1 74.66 72 69 6 51.06
A -6.5 80 33 0 70.80 56 57 0 49.56
A -6 90 40 0 69.23 60 67 3 47.24
A -5.5 59 25 0 70.24 42 42 0 50.00
A -5 52 29 0 64.20 31 48 2 39.24
A -4.5 63 25 0 71.59 51 37 0 57.95
A -4 98 53 0 64.90 68 76 7 47.22
A -3.5 125 79 1 61.27 94 111 0 45.85
A -3 271 199 1 57.66 211 223 37 48.62
A -2.5 104 105 0 49.76 96 113 0 45.93
A -2 76 60 0 55.88 67 63 6 51.54
A -1.5 45 59 0 43.27 44 60 0 42.31
A -1 97 89 0 52.15 94 89 3 51.37
H -24.5 1 0 0 100.00 0 1 0 0.00
H -24 1 0 0 100.00 0 1 0 0.00
H -22.5 1 0 0 100.00 0 1 0 0.00
H -21 1 0 0 100.00 0 1 0 0.00
H -20.5 1 0 0 100.00 0 1 0 0.00
H -20 2 0 0 100.00 1 1 0 50.00
H -19.5 1 0 0 100.00 0 1 0 0.00
H -19 3 0 0 100.00 1 2 0 33.33
H -18.5 1 0 0 100.00 1 0 0 100.00
H -18 7 0 0 100.00 2 5 0 28.57
H -17.5 4 1 0 80.00 2 3 0 40.00
H -17 15 2 0 88.24 7 7 3 50.00
H -16.5 3 0 0 100.00 2 1 0 66.67
H -16 16 1 0 94.12 7 10 0 41.18
H -15.5 13 0 0 100.00 9 4 0 69.23
H -15 16 0 0 100.00 7 9 0 43.75
H -14.5 22 5 0 81.48 9 18 0 33.33
H -14 47 12 0 79.66 23 32 4 41.82
H -13.5 52 17 0 75.36 29 40 0 42.03
H -13 65 8 0 89.04 41 31 1 56.94
H -12.5 30 5 0 85.71 17 18 0 48.57
H -12 47 8 0 85.45 23 32 0 41.82
H -11.5 29 5 0 85.29 16 18 0 47.06
H -11 67 14 0 82.72 31 47 3 39.74
H -10.5 65 20 0 76.47 38 47 0 44.71
H -10 144 34 0 80.90 86 84 8 50.59
H -9.5 96 24 0 80.00 64 56 0 53.33
H -9 146 34 0 81.11 90 90 0 50.00
H -8.5 79 16 0 83.16 43 52 0 45.26
H -8 98 33 1 74.81 66 65 1 50.38
H -7.5 122 33 0 78.71 79 76 0 50.97
H -7 266 108 1 71.12 165 196 14 45.71
H -6.5 175 104 0 62.72 119 160 0 42.65
H -6 213 95 1 69.16 158 139 12 53.20
H -5.5 120 55 3 68.57 83 95 0 46.63
H -5 120 50 0 70.59 86 78 6 52.44
H -4.5 122 63 1 65.95 89 97 0 47.85
H -4 181 112 0 61.77 146 143 4 50.52
H -3.5 240 150 1 61.54 178 213 0 45.52
H -3 393 273 0 59.01 286 306 74 48.31
H -2.5 142 116 1 55.04 127 132 0 49.03
H -2 123 100 1 55.16 113 105 6 51.83
H -1.5 61 63 0 49.19 61 63 0 49.19
H -1 116 85 0 57.71 112 85 4 56.85
ATS Breakdown
Dogs 2,564-0 (duh, S/U dogs win ATS all the time)
ROAD/HOME FAVORITES S/U ONLY ATS
Road Game Point Spread S/U W ats W ATS L ATS P %
A -23.5 1 0 1 0 0.00
A -18.5 1 0 1 0 0.00
A -17.5 1 0 1 0 0.00
A -16 2 2 0 0 100.00
A -15.5 2 2 0 0 100.00
A -15 2 0 2 0 0.00
A -14.5 6 4 2 0 66.67
A -14 11 5 6 0 45.45
A -13.5 8 3 5 0 37.50
A -13 8 5 3 0 62.50
A -12.5 6 3 3 0 50.00
A -12 6 2 3 1 40.00
A -11.5 2 1 1 0 50.00
A -11 14 8 6 0 57.14
A -10.5 17 11 6 0 64.71
A -10 32 14 16 2 46.67
A -9.5 28 16 12 0 57.14
A -9 29 18 11 0 62.07
A -8.5 22 13 9 0 59.09
A -8 31 20 10 1 66.67
A -7.5 31 17 14 0 54.84
A -7 109 72 31 6 69.90
A -6.5 80 56 24 0 70.00
A -6 90 60 27 3 68.97
A -5.5 59 42 17 0 71.19
A -5 52 31 19 2 62.00
A -4.5 63 51 12 0 80.95
A -4 98 68 23 7 74.73
A -3.5 125 94 31 0 75.20
A -3 271 211 23 37 90.17
A -2.5 104 96 8 0 92.31
A -2 76 67 3 6 95.71
A -1.5 45 44 1 0 97.78
A -1 97 94 0 3 100.00
H -24.5 1 0 1 0 0.00
H -24 1 0 1 0 0.00
H -22.5 1 0 1 0 0.00
H -21 1 0 1 0 0.00
H -20.5 1 0 1 0 0.00
H -20 2 1 1 0 50.00
H -19.5 1 0 1 0 0.00
H -19 3 1 2 0 33.33
H -18.5 1 1 0 0 100.00
H -18 7 2 5 0 28.57
H -17.5 4 2 2 0 50.00
H -17 15 7 5 3 58.33
H -16.5 3 2 1 0 66.67
H -16 16 7 9 0 43.75
H -15.5 13 9 4 0 69.23
H -15 16 7 9 0 43.75
H -14.5 22 9 13 0 40.91
H -14 47 23 20 4 53.49
H -13.5 52 29 23 0 55.77
H -13 65 41 23 1 64.06
H -12.5 30 17 13 0 56.67
H -12 47 23 24 0 48.94
H -11.5 29 16 13 0 55.17
H -11 67 31 33 3 48.44
H -10.5 65 38 27 0 58.46
H -10 144 86 50 8 63.24
H -9.5 96 64 32 0 66.67
H -9 146 90 56 0 61.64
H -8.5 79 43 36 0 54.43
H -8 98 66 31 1 68.04
H -7.5 122 79 43 0 64.75
H -7 266 165 87 14 65.48
H -6.5 175 119 56 0 68.00
H -6 213 158 43 12 78.61
H -5.5 120 83 37 0 69.17
H -5 120 86 28 6 75.44
H -4.5 122 89 33 0 72.95
H -4 181 146 31 4 82.49
H -3.5 240 178 62 0 74.17
H -3 393 286 33 74 89.66
H -2.5 142 127 15 0 89.44
H -2 123 113 4 6 96.58
H -1.5 61 61 0 0 100.00
H -1 116 112 0 4 100.00
Grand 4996 3547 1241 208 74.08
Quote: TaxmanCPA
Favorites win 66% of the time, cover 48% of the time.
If this is correct it seems you should bet underdogs on the spread and that will cover you to put money on the favorites for the moneyline?
Quote: AZDuffmanIf this is correct it seems you should bet underdogs on the spread and that will cover you to put money on the favorites for the moneyline?
That is called an English middle. I can't respect any strategy betting favorites on the money line -- one of the worst strategies in sports betting.
Or 3 point favorites and won by 35. Wondering if a system that caused 3 bookies to stop taking a friend's action in the 1980's still works today !
Hustling on a bar pool table is a king of the hill situation. Invariably a good player will defeat 2 or 3 good players in a row only to lose to one of the fishes. How many times have you see the best football team just let a worse one hang on and next thing you know, the better team loses.
That's just one part of the equation. The line in football is just that. THE LINE. The number that hopefully will have 50% of the action on each team. It moves a little to accomplish that. Sometimes a bookie has to offer a nickle line to a few select big betters to even things up. Bookies do NOT like to gamble.
My friend system was to bet the team who had performed worse against the spread last game versus a team that had beaten the spread handily. Team A is a 3 pt favorite and loses by 17. Team B was pickem and won by 21. Total is 41. He usually demanded 30 pt difference and only had 6 or 7 plays a year back then. But he went 2 and a half seasons once without a loss.
If I was betting football, no matter what system, I would limit myself to a low number of games. Maybe not this low, but no more than 1 or 2 a weekend. Anybody who thinks they can beat the vig over a big number of games is WRONG!!
Amen Brother!
I think you have a better chance at the beginning of the season before the handicappers can account for how another turn of the world around the sun has affected the teams.
Quote: buzzpaffBut then, what do you do for the rest of the year? But I see your point. Most betters are betting on last year's teams.
More importantly most handicappers are handicapping last years teams. The rest of the year? Hard to beat people who handicap for a living LOL I just bet on the team that seems to have momentum.
Long story short, taking the +10, the game was never in doubt as Northwestern was winning most of the way. And my friend was thankful that he didn't invest in the M/L as Illinois won the game in the final minute.
Also, shy away from parlaying anything with large money lines. Case in point, look at the Eagles dominating the 1H of the SF game, only to let them come off the mat and take them down. The Bally's sportsbook was pretty quiet when the game ended. Books love games like that as they are parlay busters. But there is minimal value in it for the bettor as well.
You don't have to bet every game. Also, never bet with your heart, you will be the square.
Good luck!
I have always shied away from parlays because of the vig. But wonder if any Vegas books offer " If & Reverse " bets ??
If Wiz doesn't post before me, I will post by tomorrow.
I am also working on a query of ATS W/L and O/U streaks of 4. It goes with the same premise you stated above, sighting value of teams not covering ATS or overvalue of teams covering ATS.
1. If I am going to bet an underdog moneyline, I will not hedge the bet by betting ATS.
2. I will not bet favorite moneyline and underdog ATS
Thanks!!!
Today I took the Boise State over, Brewers over, and Phillies moneyline
First, the following table shows the results of every underdog from the 2000 to 2010 seasons. The "estimated percentage" is my estimate after smoothing out the ups and downs. The Money line is the fair money line based on the estimated probability of winning.
Spread | wins | games | Actual | Estimated | Money Line |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | 35 | 70 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 100 |
1 | 52 | 102 | 51.0% | 46.8% | 114 |
1.5 | 42 | 96 | 43.8% | 45.2% | 121 |
2 | 47 | 88 | 53.4% | 43.6% | 129 |
2.5 | 66 | 144 | 45.8% | 42.0% | 138 |
3 | 245 | 592 | 41.4% | 40.5% | 147 |
3.5 | 88 | 251 | 35.1% | 38.9% | 157 |
4 | 29 | 115 | 25.2% | 37.4% | 167 |
4.5 | 32 | 87 | 36.8% | 35.9% | 179 |
5 | 31 | 82 | 37.8% | 34.4% | 190 |
5.5 | 37 | 111 | 33.3% | 33.0% | 203 |
6 | 49 | 147 | 33.3% | 31.6% | 217 |
6.5 | 45 | 156 | 28.8% | 30.2% | 231 |
7 | 58 | 196 | 29.6% | 28.9% | 246 |
7.5 | 30 | 90 | 33.3% | 27.6% | 263 |
8 | 10 | 62 | 16.1% | 26.3% | 280 |
8.5 | 10 | 55 | 18.2% | 25.1% | 299 |
9 | 18 | 81 | 22.2% | 23.9% | 319 |
9.5 | 16 | 76 | 21.1% | 22.7% | 340 |
10 | 15 | 69 | 21.7% | 21.6% | 363 |
10.5 | 16 | 64 | 25.0% | 20.5% | 387 |
11 | 3 | 30 | 10.0% | 19.5% | 413 |
11.5 | 2 | 11 | 18.2% | 18.5% | 440 |
12 | 3 | 12 | 25.0% | 17.6% | 469 |
12.5 | 5 | 20 | 25.0% | 16.7% | 501 |
13 | 4 | 27 | 14.8% | 15.8% | 534 |
13.5 | 9 | 37 | 24.3% | 14.9% | 569 |
14 | 5 | 27 | 18.5% | 14.1% | 607 |
14.5 | 2 | 14 | 14.3% | 13.4% | 648 |
15 | 0 | 5 | 0.0% | 12.6% | 691 |
15.5 | 0 | 6 | 0.0% | 12.0% | 737 |
16 | 0 | 8 | 0.0% | 11.3% | 786 |
16.5 | 0 | 8 | 0.0% | 10.7% | 838 |
17 | 0 | 3 | 0.0% | 10.1% | 894 |
17.5 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 9.5% | 953 |
18 | 0 | 2 | 0.0% | 9.0% | 1,017 |
18.5 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 8.4% | 1,084 |
19 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 8.0% | 1,156 |
19.5 | 0 | 2 | 0.0% | 7.5% | 1,233 |
20 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 7.1% | 1,315 |
20.5 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 6.7% | 1,403 |
21 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 6.3% | 1,496 |
21.5 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 5.9% | 1,596 |
22 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 5.5% | 1,702 |
22.5 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 5.2% | 1,815 |
23 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 4.9% | 1,936 |
23.5 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 4.6% | 2,065 |
24 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 4.3% | 2,202 |
The following graph shows the actual win percentages and my trend curve.
Let's look at a practical application. The Chicago Bears are a 6 point underdog tonight. My graph would suggest they have a 31.6% chance of winning, translating to a fair money line of +217. Most places have the Bears money line at +200 or +220. The Hilton has them at +235, which I think is a strong bet, but not worth driving over there for.
Another thing I don't consider above is key numbers in football. There is a big difference between a 2.5- and 3.5-point underdog. For example, I would say the chances of a 2.5-point underdog winning are greater than my estimated 42%, and less than 38.9% for a 3.5-point underdog. That adjustment will be left to the reader, in the interests of not muddying the waters.
Do you have, and can you share the win/ loss against the spread for each of these dog lines? Or or home ogs? Or did you already?
As an aside, I think tonight's line should be about minus four... The line has shifted too far based on a long winning streak for the Lions.
Also, for the books that have the Bears at +200, do they have a better money line for the Lions than the other books?
Thanks for the great info and brain candy.
Quote: thecesspitEyeballing it, it looks to high, and the actuals don't look like they line up with the table... The 10% point should be for minus eleven...
Do you have, and can you share the win/ loss against the spread for each of these dog lines? Or or home ogs? Or did you already?
As an aside, I think tonight's line should be about minus four... The line has shifted too far based on a long winning streak for the Lions.
You're right the data was not aligned properly. Bug in Excel. It is no easy task getting these charts the way you want. I could break this down by home dog and away dog, but it wouldn't make much different, trust me. In my opinion an x-point underdog has just as good a chance of winning at home as away.
About the game tonight, all the late action seems to be coming on Detroit. Stations even has them at -7. You can now get Bears money line at +270 at the Hilton and Lucky's, which I think is a great bet.
Quote: CrystalMathI know this thread is about underdogs, but do you have the money lines for the favored teams? It seems that you would want to bet the underdog for a 2 or 2.5 point spread, but you may want to bet the favored team on a 3 or 3.5 spread, depending on the money line.
Also, for the books that have the Bears at +200, do they have a better money line for the Lions than the other books?
Thanks for the great info and brain candy.
You're welcome. To get my fair lines for the favorites, just multiply by -1. For example, I have a 7-point dog at +246, so a 7-point favorite should be -246. The books know a 2.5-dog is a lot more likely to win the game than a 3.5-point dog, and will reflect it in the money lines. Except for the Super Bowl, you should simply never bet favorites on the money line. Except for the Super Bowl, my advice is bet favorites against the spread, and underdogs against the money line, assuming you're getting at least the average market price. There is a lot more variation in money lines from book to book, so you have to shop around.
Quote: WizardOkay, here is some good stuff for you guys. I spent quite a bit of time getting this together for you.
That is great stuff! Thank you very much.
If it were based on historical numbers, then we would see a difference in the lines to account for the book's profit (right?).
In case anyone is wondering, the lines from from the database I purchased at MrNFL.com. I think he got them from various sources.
CM, I'm not sure I understand your comment above. The red line shows what I think is a fair, no advantage, money line, not considering the effect of key numbers in the NFL, mainly 3 and 7. I tried to show today's game as an example where if you believe my method you can get a good value on Bears money line.
I did some estimates looking only at 0-7, 3-10 and 7-14 spreads.
I also did my own estimate of a true curve for win percentage at different dog spreads.
The polynomial produced are :
Overall : Percentage Win Chance = 0.00003x^3 - 0.00059x^2 - 0.02708x + 0.50000 (x = spread offered)
0-7 : %age win = 0.0018x^3 - 0.0172x^2 + 0.0069x + 0.5
3-10 : %age win = -0.0002x^3 + 0.0034x^2 - 0.0462x + 0.5
7-14 : %age win =0.0002x^3 - 0.0024x^2 - 0.0258x + 0.5
The R^2 fit was :
Overall = 0.91
0-7 = 0.73
3-10 = 0.61
7-14 = 0.20
Meaning only the first two are particularly good fit lines for the data.
I set them all to intercept the y-axis at 0.5 (hence the last term). This might be an error....
What that looks like is :
Dashed Line = Overall estimate
Green Line = Estimate for 0-7 point spreads
Red Line = Estimate for 3-10 point spreads
Blue Line = Estimate for 7-14 point spreads
Cheers.
Quote: WizardYou're right the data was not aligned properly. Bug in Excel. It is no easy task getting these charts the way you want. I could break this down by home dog and away dog, but it wouldn't make much different, trust me. In my opinion an x-point underdog has just as good a chance of winning at home as away.
I was more meaning the win/loss against the spread rather than the money line. Do the spreads mostly split 50/50 for dogs and favourites, or are there spreads where the dog has historically won (with points) much more than 50%
Quote:About the game tonight, all the late action seems to be coming on Detroit. Stations even has them at -7. You can now get Bears money line at +270 at the Hilton and Lucky's, which I think is a great bet.
Bears -7 is a bet I'd make if I wasn't wearing my Lions jersey for tonights game, and they weren't having such a great season so far. A lot will depend on the Chicago Rush offence versus the Lions Run defence. If the Bears don't get behind early, and Cutler doesn't have to throw to win the game, then this will be at least close, if not a Bears win.
If the Lions get up early, Cutler won't get the pass protection he needs, and Suh and KVB will have a field day.
And if Stafford goes down... :(
Going against the spread, any math-based sports bettor knows that underdogs are the way to go. There are no special numbers, other than I think you need to get to about +3 to see the benefit. Wong's book suggests betting home underdogs only, but I think any underdog is fine.
I was guessing that a exponential regression might make a nicer line, but not fit the data as well, which is what I saw when I was looking at the short regions. There's a suggestion that around 11-14 point dogs are generally getting too many points and would be good Money Line bets.
Will be something I will take into account anyways.
I just checked this page to see if you'd broken down dogs by points...:
https://wizardofodds.com/sports/sports_apx2.html
Table 4, where you look at home dogs over a season... I think the headings Win and Loss are reversed.
As I'm curious, I should go look up the data myself :)
Quote: WizardCM, I'm not sure I understand your comment above. The red line shows what I think is a fair, no advantage, money line, not considering the effect of key numbers in the NFL, mainly 3 and 7.
This is pretty much what I was trying to say: that you calculated the money lines to have no advantage. If I would have read the thread more carefully, I would have realized that in the first place.
Here are the results by point spread in college football. The FML column is the Fair Money Line. For example, a money line on a 7-point underdog of +231 would be exactly fair. Data is from 1983 to 2005.
Spread | wins | games | Actual | Estimated | FML |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | 472 | 944 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 100 |
1 | 157 | 331 | 47.4% | 47.0% | 113 |
1.5 | 132 | 284 | 46.5% | 45.5% | 120 |
2 | 141 | 280 | 50.4% | 44.1% | 127 |
2.5 | 164 | 376 | 43.6% | 42.6% | 135 |
3 | 246 | 540 | 45.6% | 41.1% | 143 |
3.5 | 134 | 358 | 37.4% | 39.7% | 152 |
4 | 135 | 337 | 40.1% | 38.3% | 161 |
4.5 | 93 | 259 | 35.9% | 36.9% | 171 |
5 | 74 | 213 | 34.7% | 35.5% | 182 |
5.5 | 101 | 294 | 34.4% | 34.1% | 193 |
6 | 109 | 343 | 31.8% | 32.8% | 205 |
6.5 | 121 | 383 | 31.6% | 31.5% | 217 |
7 | 146 | 493 | 29.6% | 30.2% | 231 |
7.5 | 84 | 332 | 25.3% | 29.0% | 245 |
8 | 73 | 243 | 30.0% | 27.8% | 260 |
8.5 | 67 | 227 | 29.5% | 26.6% | 276 |
9 | 62 | 225 | 27.6% | 25.5% | 293 |
9.5 | 64 | 250 | 25.6% | 24.3% | 311 |
10 | 79 | 320 | 24.7% | 23.3% | 330 |
10.5 | 43 | 210 | 20.5% | 22.2% | 350 |
11 | 56 | 217 | 25.8% | 21.2% | 372 |
11.5 | 38 | 142 | 26.8% | 20.2% | 395 |
12 | 37 | 179 | 20.7% | 19.3% | 419 |
12.5 | 38 | 176 | 21.6% | 18.4% | 445 |
13 | 42 | 237 | 17.7% | 17.5% | 472 |
13.5 | 42 | 210 | 20.0% | 16.6% | 501 |
14 | 56 | 328 | 17.1% | 15.8% | 532 |
14.5 | 28 | 194 | 14.4% | 15.0% | 565 |
15 | 19 | 157 | 12.1% | 14.3% | 599 |
15.5 | 20 | 123 | 16.3% | 13.6% | 636 |
16 | 22 | 171 | 12.9% | 12.9% | 675 |
16.5 | 14 | 144 | 9.7% | 12.2% | 717 |
17 | 29 | 239 | 12.1% | 11.6% | 761 |
17.5 | 17 | 134 | 12.7% | 11.0% | 808 |
18 | 8 | 121 | 6.6% | 10.4% | 858 |
18.5 | 6 | 89 | 6.7% | 9.9% | 910 |
19 | 18 | 142 | 12.7% | 9.4% | 966 |
19.5 | 10 | 83 | 12.0% | 8.9% | 1,026 |
20 | 9 | 136 | 6.6% | 8.4% | 1,089 |
20.5 | 12 | 109 | 11.0% | 8.0% | 1,156 |
21 | 10 | 138 | 7.2% | 7.5% | 1,227 |
21.5 | 4 | 94 | 4.3% | 7.1% | 1,303 |
22 | 5 | 128 | 3.9% | 6.7% | 1,383 |
22.5 | 7 | 71 | 9.9% | 6.4% | 1,468 |
23 | 7 | 115 | 6.1% | 6.0% | 1,558 |
23.5 | 5 | 76 | 6.6% | 5.7% | 1,654 |
24 | 6 | 122 | 4.9% | 5.4% | 1,756 |
24.5 | 3 | 68 | 4.4% | 5.1% | 1,864 |
25 | 5 | 62 | 8.1% | 4.8% | 1,978 |
25.5 | 2 | 61 | 3.3% | 4.5% | 2,100 |
26 | 1 | 78 | 1.3% | 4.3% | 2,229 |
26.5 | 4 | 55 | 7.3% | 4.1% | 2,366 |
27 | 1 | 79 | 1.3% | 3.8% | 2,512 |
27.5 | 2 | 56 | 3.6% | 3.6% | 2,666 |
28 | 6 | 93 | 6.5% | 3.4% | 2,830 |
28.5 | 2 | 41 | 4.9% | 3.2% | 3,004 |
29 | 1 | 52 | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3,189 |
29.5 | 1 | 38 | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3,385 |
30 | 1 | 52 | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3,594 |
30.5 | 3 | 33 | 9.1% | 2.6% | 3,815 |
31 | 2 | 58 | 3.4% | 2.4% | 4,049 |
Here is a nice graph for you.
If you compare these results to what you can find on the open market a good bet is tough to find. Your best odds are shopping the books around Vegas, where you can find some marginally good bets on some games. It is tougher betting offshore. Overall, the advantages are greater betting NFL money lines.
Here is a rare example of what I deem a good bet, see bet 111 on Indiana.
In other words, 210 to 1 on Indiana. My graph doesn't go that high, but I show a 39.5-point underdog fair at 112 to 1. Wish me luck!
I hope that was a light bet on the Hoosiers. I don't know much about College Football, but I know the Badgers are a hot team right now... :s
I wonder, could you go the reverse direction? Take the the Money Line from above and generate your own points line and see if this varies enough from the Vegas lines?
(E.g Money Line is +200 for a team, which suggests they should be +6. They are +7 (say for a big shift). Would it be worth taking the points?
Just a thought...
Yes, there is much more data on college football.
With football, the point spread always comes first, and other bets tend to be based on that. You could always use my chart to go the other way. I would use the money line on the underdog to get the spread, not the favorite.
Quote: WizardPretty small bet on Indiana. Probably the biggest long shot I have ever bet in my life.
Yes, there is much more data on college football.
With football, the point spread always comes first, and other bets tend to be based on that. You could always use my chart to go the other way. I would use the money line on the underdog to get the spread, not the favorite.
Has a 40 point underdog ever won a college football game?
Quote: FinsRuleHas a 40 point underdog ever won a college football game?
Based on the data I have from 1983 to 2005 (12,128 games) the biggest upset was a 35-point underdog winning.
Quote: BrockPhxStanford winning at USC around 4 years ago was about a 41 pt spread
I didn't know that. That game is outside of my data, but am happy to hear anytime USC loses, especially against such an inferior team.
Quote: BrockPhxStanford winning at USC around 4 years ago was about a 41 pt spread
Stanford won 24-23 as a 38.5 underdog.