Anyone know the formula?

I posted this thread question in another forum last week and got no replys. Anyone know what factors into point spreads in NBA, NCAA, Football and Basketball? Mainly Bsketball. Obviously they consider how many points does the team get and give up vs. the other teams totals, injuries, home and away. But what else do they weigh in the formulas and how much weight do these considerations carry? Is there a straight up formula for odds makers to come up with their initial point spread?

Quote: AverageAllstar

I posted this thread question in another forum last week and got no replys. Anyone know what factors into point spreads in NBA, NCAA, Football and Basketball? Mainly Bsketball. Obviously they consider how many points does the team get and give up vs. the other teams totals, injuries, home and away. But what else do they weigh in the formulas and how much weight do these considerations carry? Is there a straight up formula for odds makers to come up with their initial point spread?

There are dozens of factors that go into the pointspread: how the teams match up, relative recent performance of the teams, home/away records, travel/fatigue, whether the respective teams are strong on offense/defense, etc. But the pointspread isn't strictly derived from those factors alone: the books post their spreads with the goal of equalizing the action they get. So if the Lakers are playing at home on the weekend, they might think the Lakers should be 9-point favorites but will post them at minus 14 because if they posted an "accurate" spread, money would come roaring in on the Lakers, forcing them to change the spread to attact action on the dog, which would then create middling opportunities. In general, the books don't want to be "rooting for" either side.

Making the line is still somewhat of an art form; it's possible to TRY to quantify every factor that could affect the outcome of a game, but in the end, a handicapper has to decide what's important and what's not.

Quote: mkl654321

the books post their spreads with the goal of equalizing the action they get.

a.k.a. Supply and Demand

Quote: mkl654321

Making the line is still somewhat of an art form

It really seems like this to me. I consider all the things you listed and I assumed the odds makers do too. I'd just like to know what equals what but like you said, there seems to be a creative ending on point spreads listed. I'm sure there has to be a formula of some sorts though to get them an initial spread (fair spread).

Thanks for the input. Anyone else have any insight on this?

Correct me if I'm wrong but I believe it was Nate Silver who did an exhaustive analysis ( as Nate Silver tends to do ) of the odds makers and actual outcomes of Baseball games. He thinks that you can generally beat the vig by betting on the home team if they are the underdog. I'm typing this on a cell phone so I can't link to the article. I hope I got that part right. Anyway, it appears that the "art" of book making may have somes exploitable holes in it.