My Football Betting Journey So Far

Hello everyone,

I wanted to share a brief reflection from my own experience with football betting, purely from a learning and analytical perspective.

Like many bettors, I initially relied on intuition and opinions. Over time, it became clear that without structure, variance dominates outcomes. That realization pushed me toward a more disciplined, probability-based approach.

I now focus on:

Single bets instead of accumulators

Markets that are easier to analyze statistically (mainly totals and BTTS)

Strict bankroll management and record-keeping

The biggest improvement didn’t come from predictions themselves, but from reducing emotional decisions and accepting variance as part of the process.

For personal accountability, I keep a private log and testing project (ProfitBets pro), which I use only to document results and ideas — not as a recommendation.

I’m still learning and refining, but approaching betting as a statistical exercise rather than entertainment has been a meaningful shift.

I’d be interested in hearing how others here think about structure, variance, and bankroll discipline.

Thanks for the thoughtful discussions in this community.

if only there was some place to get tips for $30 a month!

oh, wait, I think that's your thing? well you can get them from me, guys, $25 a month and just as good

Why pay $25 for something just as good when, for a few bucks more, I can get something gooder?

Quote: odiousgambit

if only there was some place to get tips for $30 a month!

oh, wait, I think that's your thing? well you can get them from me, guys, $25 a month and just as good
link to original post

Fair point, and just to be clear, I’m not offering tips here or asking anyone to pay for anything.
This thread was only about process, discipline, and how I personally think about betting from a probability standpoint. If it came across otherwise, that wasn’t the intention.

Quote: billryan

Why pay $25 for something just as good when, for a few bucks more, I can get something gooder?
link to original post

That’s exactly why I’m not discussing selling, pricing, or “services” here.
I’m more interested in the underlying concepts, variance and bankroll management which apply regardless of where bets come from.

Quote: billryan

Why pay $25 for something just as good when, for a few bucks more, I can get something gooder?
link to original post

faulty reasoning here, sir

I assert A equals B, but B is for less $
You assert A > B , justifying I guess that A is for more $

but A=B and A>B can't be used in the same formula

Quote: profitbets

Quote: billryan

Why pay $25 for something just as good when, for a few bucks more, I can get something gooder?
link to original post

That’s exactly why I’m not discussing selling, pricing, or “services” here.
I’m more interested in the underlying concepts, variance and bankroll management which apply regardless of where bets come from.
link to original post

Well, I'd vote for allowing the promotion for your site , in the way that you did it, quite clever

Here we discuss sports, sure, but for sportsbetting, we discuss AP betting only. I suggest you come up with some of that quick or you will die on the vine here

Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: profitbets

Quote: billryan

Why pay $25 for something just as good when, for a few bucks more, I can get something gooder?
link to original post

That’s exactly why I’m not discussing selling, pricing, or “services” here.
I’m more interested in the underlying concepts, variance and bankroll management which apply regardless of where bets come from.
link to original post

Well, I'd vote for allowing the promotion for your site , in the way that you did it, quite clever

Here we discuss sports, sure, but for sportsbetting, we discuss AP betting only. I suggest you come up with some of that quick or you will die on the vine here
link to original post

I understand your point, when I refer to structure and discipline, I’m specifically talking about treating football betting as an AP problem: pricing inefficiencies, margin avoidance, market selection, and long-term expectation not picks or touting.

For example, focusing on narrower markets where closing-line value can be measured, avoiding narrative-driven sides, and accepting low-yield edges compounded over volume.

If that’s within scope here, fine. If not, no worries, message received.

Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: billryan

Why pay $25 for something just as good when, for a few bucks more, I can get something gooder?
link to original post

faulty reasoning here, sir

I assert A equals B, but B is for less $
You assert A > B , justifying I guess that A is for more $

but A=B and A>B can't be used in the same formula
link to original post

You misunderstand. While A may equal B, C is betterer than both.

but how much are YOU charging? lol

profitbets: I have deleted your user image. On Wizard of Odds Forum, you are not allowed to market an internet site where you are requesting fees (without permission of the Wizard.)

You may use another user image as long as it does not break our forum rules. Our forum rules are Rules