NFL: negative correlation between halves
Right now I'm seeing:
Miami 1st half -0.5 +110
Miami 2nd half -0.5 +100
Nothing special here; these are crappy 30 cent lines (Indy +0.5 is -140 and -130 respectively)
But when I parlay them I get +425. If they were uncorrelated you would get +320. Is there really that much of a negative correlation between a team winning the first half and winning the 2nd? I understand that there's some negative correlation due to the opening kickoff of each half going to different teams, and maybe some more due to the team that's ahead possibly running to give up a portion of their lead in order to secure win, but this still seems high.
Quote: SkinnyTonyThe Miami/Indy game is a pick'em.
Right now I'm seeing:
Miami 1st half -0.5 +110
Miami 2nd half -0.5 +100
Nothing special here; these are crappy 30 cent lines (Indy +0.5 is -140 and -130 respectively)
But when I parlay them I get +425. If they were uncorrelated you would get +320. Is there really that much of a negative correlation between a team winning the first half and winning the 2nd? I understand that there's some negative correlation due to the opening kickoff of each half going to different teams, and maybe some more due to the team that's ahead possibly running to give up a portion of their lead in order to secure win, but this still seems high.
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Great post. I think the alternating opening kickoffs is the major factor. This will be an easy one (for someone other than me!) to research. Do remember, of course, that to win your bet if either half is a tie, you lose.
That said the colts and the bears are very difficult teams when picking.
Quote: avianrandyYou might look at the colts history in home game opener when betting
That said the colts and the bears are very difficult teams when picking.
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Yeah I know. I hate betting trends though.
In the 5 year Joe Burrow era the Bengals are 1-9 in the first 2 games of the season. That includes my week 1 survivor league exit last year when they lost to the Pats. I still think they are beating the Browns though.
Quote: odiousgambitatop your thread are some nfl odds comparisons. Where did that come from?
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Not from me! Looks like something that scans posts and tries to include "relevant" ads. I usually ignore this stuff -- unfortunately it's slipping past my ad blocker.
Quote: SkinnyTonyQuote: odiousgambitatop your thread are some nfl odds comparisons. Where did that come from?
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Not from me! Looks like something that scans posts and tries to include "relevant" ads. I usually ignore this stuff -- unfortunately it's slipping past my ad blocker.
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The way WoV includes ads is not readily blockable.
Quote: SkinnyTonyQuote: avianrandyYou might look at the colts history in home game opener when betting
That said the colts and the bears are very difficult teams when picking.
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Yeah I know. I hate betting trends though.
I am with you. Trends only tell us about the past and there are different players and coaches each year. Tell me why you expect that result this year and then I will evaluate it.
However if a team is a 60% favorite to win the first half and does so by more than one score -say, for example, they are ahead 21-7 after the first half -then the chance that they will win the second half is less than 60%.
The reason, I believe, is that teams that are behind are highly motivated to score and will take risks to do so, while the team that is ahead by > 7 points is highly motivated to run the clock out in the 4th quarter so as to minimize risk of a turn-over -or to settle for a field goal as time is running out rather than trying to pass and make a TD.
This is something that we could investigate by looking at half-time and final scores in the last several years of NFL games.
There were 32 games, none of them were tied at half-time.
In these 32 games, the team that was ahead at half-time
- "lost" the second half 19 times.
- "won" the second half 11 times
- "tied" with the other team in the second half 2 times.
In these 32 games, the team that was ahead at half-time
- had a smaller scoring margin over the other team in the second half 29 times
- had a larger scoring margin over the other team in the second half 2 times
- won the first and second halves by the same scoring margin 1 time
A small sample size but pretty clear.
Quote: SkinnyTonyThe Miami/Indy game is a pick'em.
Right now I'm seeing:
Miami 1st half -0.5 +110
Miami 2nd half -0.5 +100
Nothing special here; these are crappy 30 cent lines (Indy +0.5 is -140 and -130 respectively)
But when I parlay them I get +425. If they were uncorrelated you would get +320. Is there really that much of a negative correlation between a team winning the first half and winning the 2nd? I understand that there's some negative correlation due to the opening kickoff of each half going to different teams, and maybe some more due to the team that's ahead possibly running to give up a portion of their lead in order to secure win, but this still seems high.
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Well that line maker needs to be fired.
Quote: SkinnyTonyThe Miami/Indy game is a pick'em.
Right now I'm seeing:
Miami 1st half -0.5 +110
Miami 2nd half -0.5 +100
Nothing special here; these are crappy 30 cent lines (Indy +0.5 is -140 and -130 respectively)
But when I parlay them I get +425. If they were uncorrelated you would get +320. Is there really that much of a negative correlation between a team winning the first half and winning the 2nd? I understand that there's some negative correlation due to the opening kickoff of each half going to different teams, and maybe some more due to the team that's ahead possibly running to give up a portion of their lead in order to secure win, but this still seems high.
link to original post
Well that line maker needs to be fired.
