NFL: negatove correlation between halves
Right now I'm seeing:
Miami 1st half -0.5 +110
Miami 2nd half -0.5 +100
Nothing special here; these are crappy 30 cent lines (Indy +0.5 is -140 and -130 respectively)
But when I parlay them I get +425. If they were uncorrelated you would get +320. Is there really that much of a negative correlation between a team winning the first half and winning the 2nd? I understand that there's some negative correlation due to the opening kickoff of each half going to different teams, and maybe some more due to the team that's ahead possibly running to give up a portion of their lead in order to secure win, but this still seems high.
Quote: SkinnyTonyThe Miami/Indy game is a pick'em.
Right now I'm seeing:
Miami 1st half -0.5 +110
Miami 2nd half -0.5 +100
Nothing special here; these are crappy 30 cent lines (Indy +0.5 is -140 and -130 respectively)
But when I parlay them I get +425. If they were uncorrelated you would get +320. Is there really that much of a negative correlation between a team winning the first half and winning the 2nd? I understand that there's some negative correlation due to the opening kickoff of each half going to different teams, and maybe some more due to the team that's ahead possibly running to give up a portion of their lead in order to secure win, but this still seems high.
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Great post. I think the alternating opening kickoffs is the major factor. This will be an easy one (for someone other than me!) to research. Do remember, of course, that to win your bet if either half is a tie, you lose.
That said the colts and the bears are very difficult teams when picking.
Quote: avianrandyYou might look at the colts history in home game opener when betting
That said the colts and the bears are very difficult teams when picking.
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Yeah I know. I hate betting trends though.
In the 5 year Joe Burrow era the Bengals are 1-9 in the first 2 games of the season. That includes my week 1 survivor league exit last year when they lost to the Pats. I still think they are beating the Browns though.
