NFL First Touchdown Strategy
September 1st, 2025 at 5:07:14 PM
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Hi ,
Just wanted to check on a NFL first touch down strategy.
I am identifying 5 set of 4 players each and combine them for a First touchdown parlay and keep 10 dollars on it. Then i use the same bet and go to matches on players not involved in 4 of these matches and keep 10 bets including the top 10 players to score First touchdown in that match for 10 cents each . For a total of 1 dollars.
FOR example, my first set of players for this season Week 1 is
Saquon, Derrick Henry, David Montgomery, kyren william, all these combimed the odds are +80000 in FD. So i keep 10 dollars on this bet. Then, i take every other match, In Chargers vs Chiefs match i include the top 10 players to score first touch down and include them as a fifth leg and place 10 cents.
With this some times the odds getting to 6 digits or 7 digits as well.
NOTE, i am planning to keep the same set of players in all 17 week and hope one pattern or set clicks on any of the week.
When the play the same match on week, i replace them with a another player who consistently hits.
Is this startegy absurd, or something that can be tried
Just wanted to check on a NFL first touch down strategy.
I am identifying 5 set of 4 players each and combine them for a First touchdown parlay and keep 10 dollars on it. Then i use the same bet and go to matches on players not involved in 4 of these matches and keep 10 bets including the top 10 players to score First touchdown in that match for 10 cents each . For a total of 1 dollars.
FOR example, my first set of players for this season Week 1 is
Saquon, Derrick Henry, David Montgomery, kyren william, all these combimed the odds are +80000 in FD. So i keep 10 dollars on this bet. Then, i take every other match, In Chargers vs Chiefs match i include the top 10 players to score first touch down and include them as a fifth leg and place 10 cents.
With this some times the odds getting to 6 digits or 7 digits as well.
NOTE, i am planning to keep the same set of players in all 17 week and hope one pattern or set clicks on any of the week.
When the play the same match on week, i replace them with a another player who consistently hits.
Is this startegy absurd, or something that can be tried
September 1st, 2025 at 8:59:23 PM
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You can try whatever you want but it's not clear what you're trying to accomplish. Are you trying to hedge? You can't really effectively hedge a parlay that way because if you get 3 out of 4 the parlay still loses. And all your 10c bets on those games lose as well. So maybe you hit one 10c bet on one of the games and win back maybe a dollar or so, and lose everything else.
September 2nd, 2025 at 7:33:16 AM
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1. *Pick a Core Set*:
- Choose *4 players* (from 4 different games) you believe can score the *first touchdown*.
- Example: *Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, David Montgomery, Kyren Williams*.
- This 4-leg First TD parlay can have huge odds (like *+80000*).
- Bet *10* on this parlay.
2. *Bonus Layer – Add a 5th Player from Other Matches*:
- For each remaining game that doesn’t involve the 4 players, pick the *top 10 likely scorers* to hit First TD.
- Combine each one as a *5th leg* with your original 4-player parlay.
- Bet *0.10* on each of these new parlays (10 bets = 1 total).
—
🔁 Weekly Plan:
- Keep the same core 4-player combo across *all 17 weeks*.
- If a player from the original 4 is in the same game again, and not performing, replace them with someone more consistent.
- Choose *4 players* (from 4 different games) you believe can score the *first touchdown*.
- Example: *Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, David Montgomery, Kyren Williams*.
- This 4-leg First TD parlay can have huge odds (like *+80000*).
- Bet *10* on this parlay.
2. *Bonus Layer – Add a 5th Player from Other Matches*:
- For each remaining game that doesn’t involve the 4 players, pick the *top 10 likely scorers* to hit First TD.
- Combine each one as a *5th leg* with your original 4-player parlay.
- Bet *0.10* on each of these new parlays (10 bets = 1 total).
—
🔁 Weekly Plan:
- Keep the same core 4-player combo across *all 17 weeks*.
- If a player from the original 4 is in the same game again, and not performing, replace them with someone more consistent.
September 4th, 2025 at 8:22:48 AM
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Your Barkley/Henry/Williams/Montgomery parlay pays around 1500-1.
No way I can fool myself into that being +EV. Thus adding a 5th leg likely just makes it slightly more -EV.
Once you added ‘if the player is not performaning’ for future bets that makes me sure your system is more likely to fail than succeed. If Henry runs for 100 yards but scores no touchdowns do you define that as ‘not performing’?
Remember, of course, you are not betting on these guys scoring A touchdown, but THE FIRST touchdown. It would be a surprise if in ANY week even 3 of these 4 guys score the first touchdown.
But good luck!
No way I can fool myself into that being +EV. Thus adding a 5th leg likely just makes it slightly more -EV.
Once you added ‘if the player is not performaning’ for future bets that makes me sure your system is more likely to fail than succeed. If Henry runs for 100 yards but scores no touchdowns do you define that as ‘not performing’?
Remember, of course, you are not betting on these guys scoring A touchdown, but THE FIRST touchdown. It would be a surprise if in ANY week even 3 of these 4 guys score the first touchdown.
But good luck!
