Parity in the NFL

Throughout this NFL season i've heard several times commentators discussing parity in the NFL, hinting this isn't the case in other sports where talent gaps between teams are larger. Conversely I have heard comments by players and media that the NBA should contract because there are too many teams that simply can't compete.
Is there validity to this? Looking at this years results one might come to this conclusion, but it's only this year's results. Any given year in the NFL, NCAAF, NBA, and NCAAB it seems there will be at least one league that experiences a large number of upsets simply by chance. This year it just happens to be the NFL. I have only recently become interested in sports betting and I'm wondering if there is this type of issue every year with one league or another?

Quote: clarkacal

it seems there will be at least one league that experiences a large number of upsets simply by chance. This year it just happens to be the NFL.

I think the number of upsets in the NFL season has been about at expectations this season. There were more than expected in the early season, but the last half not many underdogs won. Maybe I'll do up a graph to prove it.

I think you're right. There's always some league with lots of surprises, look at the 07 college football season, the 10 NCAA basketball tourney, etc.

I guess you could think of it as EV v. short-term. Over the short term, you could flip 80% heads, but over infinity, it'll be 50-50. I think the trick is to sniff out these trends before the market does, like picking up 1999 Kurt Warner after his first start instead of his 3rd.

Quote: clarkacal

Throughout this NFL season i've heard several times commentators discussing parity in the NFL, hinting this isn't the case in other sports where talent gaps between teams are larger. Conversely I have heard comments by players and media that the NBA should contract because there are too many teams that simply can't compete.
Is there validity to this? Looking at this years results one might come to this conclusion, but it's only this year's results. Any given year in the NFL, NCAAF, NBA, and NCAAB it seems there will be at least one league that experiences a large number of upsets simply by chance. This year it just happens to be the NFL. I have only recently become interested in sports betting and I'm wondering if there is this type of issue every year with one league or another?

Season legnth and division size might come into play. The had a losing team make the playoffs for the first time ever this year. At 7-9 it was "just" a losing season, if it were baseball that would be a 71-91 record and not close to qualifying. At only 4 teams per division and you play > 60% of your games outside the division it was only a matter of time. One commentator stated the NFL "must" expand the playoffs if they make the season longer.

Seattle aside, this year the NFL seemed to have better seperation than ever. In the AFC I think it was all decided but one team and week 16 was played for the seedings. Years past there might have been 5 or more 8-8 to 9-7 teams with a shot.

Quote: Wizard

I think the number of upsets in the NFL season has been about at expectations this season. There were more than
expected in the early season, but the last half not many underdogs won. Maybe I'll do up a graph to prove it.

Wouldn't it just prove that beating SF early in the year might have been an upset, but not at the end? Same with Dallas, Minnesota.... Plus, there weren't that many "meaningless" games at the end.

Quote: AZDuffman

Season legnth and division size might come into play. The had a losing team make the playoffs for the first time ever this year. At 7-9 it was "just" a losing season, if it were baseball that would be a 71-91 record and not close to qualifying. At only 4 teams per division and you play > 60% of your games outside the division it was only a matter of time. One commentator stated the NFL "must" expand the playoffs if they make the season longer.

Seattle aside, this year the NFL seemed to have better seperation than ever. In the AFC I think it was all decided but one team and week 16 was played for the seedings. Years past there might have been 5 or more 8-8 to 9-7 teams with a shot.

What i'm referring to is not the final records but the commentators view that anyone can beat anyone, especially after the Browns beat the Patriots and Arizona beat the Saints. Do you remember all that talk about parity this year? My point is that maybe the league perceived to have the most parity depends on which league has the most upsets that year, and that this is random and could have happened in one of the other leagues instead of the NFL. Then this league would be the media's league with parity.

Quote: Wizard

I think the number of upsets in the NFL season has been about at expectations this season. There were more than expected in the early season, but the last half not many underdogs won. Maybe I'll do up a graph to prove it.

I also wonder, though, about what exactly constitutes an "upset". If the public overvalues one team and/or undervalues another, and the underdog wins, is that an "upset", or just a function of the line having been skewed?

The most parity has got to be in the NHL, followed by MLB, in my opinion. You don't get many games where the underdog is +200 or more. Meanwhile, such money lines are common in football and basketball.

And yet, in the NHL the same teams do well year after year (see Redwings) and you have a big spread of results at season end.

I think in NHL, like MLB, any team can give the other team a great match on any given day, but there's big differences in actual quality of those teams (the variance is high, rather than the EV's being close :))

Someone did a study, I don't remember who, showing that as far as the NFL is concerned, "parity" is a myth. There's just as much separation from top to bottom now as has always been.

Googled, here are folks who have pored through the stats and the history:

Cold Hard Football Facts 1: Parity is Dead

Cold Hard Football Facts 2: Statistical tour de douche: history of the NFL elite

Easterbrook, in Tuesday Morning Quarterback: Enough talk about parity, please