2025 March Madness

I used to bet March Madness props heavily, so did a lot of study into the longevity of any given seed making it into the tournament. This year, I didn't fuss with it, but in the interests of tradition, here are some updated statistics.

This year, the average seed to survive the first round was 5.34. Previously, the average was 5.85. So, not many upsets. The lowest ranked team to survive was 12, of which two survived.

The average seed to survive the second round, making it to the top 16, was 3.44. The previous average was 4.54. The lowest ranked seed to survive is 10.

The average seed to survive the third round, making it to the top 8, was 1.625. The previous average was 3.34. The lowest ranked seed to survive is 3. All four number 1 seeds remain. This sets a new March Madness record of the lowest average seed number in the Elite Eight.

All four teams in the Final Four are number 1 seeds. This has happened only once before, in 2008. The previous average at this point was 2.97.

It goes without saying the final two in the playoffs were number 1 seeds as well as whoever wins the whole enchilada.

Since we know a number 1 seed will win, I can update my average wins per seed now, as follows.

Seed	Avg wins
1	3.34
2	2.33
3	1.84
4	1.56
5	1.14
6	1.06
7	0.89
8	0.73
9	0.59
10	0.61
11	0.64
12	0.51
13	0.24
14	0.16
15	0.11
16	0.01
Overall	1.00

To update my probability of a perfect bracket, my new probability is 1 in 1,411,767,179. The strategy is to pick the higher ranked team every time, except in a 1 vs. 1 situation pick randomly.

Source: NCAA.com.

There’s a bracket on ESPN that only has three wrong picks, all in the first round. Been perfect since. It has Houston winning the final. Pretty incredible.

Quote: unJon

There’s a bracket on ESPN that only has three wrong picks, all in the first round. Been perfect since. It has Houston winning the final. Pretty incredible.
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This tournament adhering remarkably closely to the seedings. I wonder if the rankings and comparative analysis of teams has gotten better

I'll blame or credit NILs and the transfer portal. In the past, overlooked high school players ended up at weaker schools and stayed there rather than sit out a year when they transferred. Now, schools are even recruiting Seniors if they have eligibility left. I expect the gap between the elite schools and the rest to widen. The day of the million-dollar-a-year college ball player is rapidly approaching.
It's been widely reported that Duke will spend ten million dollars on NILs for the basketball team. That attracts a lot of talent.

Quote: billryan

I'll blame or credit NILs and the transfer portal. In the past, overlooked high school players ended up at weaker schools and stayed there rather than sit out a year when they transferred. Now, schools are even recruiting Seniors if they have eligibility left. I expect the gap between the elite schools and the rest to widen. The day of the million-dollar-a-year college ball player is rapidly approaching.
It's been widely reported that Duke will spend ten million dollars on NILs for the basketball team. That attracts a lot of talent.
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In college football, Tennessee's quarterback, Nico Iamaleava, has been widely reported to be receiving NIL of $8 million over four years

I read that a certain Southern University gifted their offensive lines $120,000 pickup trucks, but they were yearly leases.

Quote: billryan

I read that a certain Southern University gifted their offensive lines $120,000 pickup trucks, but they were yearly leases.
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Very smart to put them on yearly leases.