MLB Home run Strategy

Hi All, MLB season is just around the corner and i want to get feedback on one of the strategy i was thinking to trail run for this season.

Last year, Judge and ohtani hit more than 50 home run each and both of them hit HR on same day in 19 occasions. When parlayed the odds ranged around 1000 to 1700.

Strategy

My Strategy here is parlay them on all days when the both play on same day.and also combine with top 10 home run scorers from last season, and have 10 bets for each day. Say i start with 2 dollars unit and my total bets are 20 dollars per day for 10 bets. The idea here is getting the parlay hit and when it does since i am running 3 legs HR parlays with other top players and if few of them hit i might end up with decent profit.

10 bet i will be making, 2 dollars on each bet and if i get lucky there might be days where 3 or 4 bets can easily win out of these 10 bets and for 3 leg HR parlay, i am expecting around +5000 to +10000 and that could be a very good pay day. And even if i lose for whole month i down only 600 for a 2 dollars unit and based on the results i can increase my unit size.



Play 1 : judge and Ohtani
Play 2 Judge , Ohtani and Santender
Play 3 judge, ohtani and juan soto
Play 4 judge ohtani and Ozuna
Play 5 judge , ohtani and Ramierez
Play 6 judge, ohtani and booker
Play 7 judge , ohtani and Henderson
Play 8 judge, ohtani and schwaber
Play 9 judge ohtani and marte
Play 10 judge ohtani and Vladimir Jr

Sorry if i am missing something very basic and being stupid here

If I understand this correctly, you will bet $20 per game for the season. You think there will be about 15-20 times when two legs win, and you hope the third leg also wins.
My thoughts—Few players have had back-to-back 50 home run seasons, so I wouldn't count on both of them having a year like last year.
With the increase in days off, there are chances that on days when you hit the first two, some of your third legs will not even play.
Best of luck; it sounds like an interesting bet. Will you be betting daily or weekly? What happens to a bet if one of the players doesn't play?

I will be betting daily. Ohtani ,Judge will be common if they dont play on the same day i am not making any bey that day.

If the 3rd player is not playing that day, i take the next player the top 20 home run hitters from last year

I will place 10 bets per day. 2 dollars per bet. 20 dollars for a day.

Bets will be one 2 HR parlay with Judge and Ohtani and nine 3 legs HR parlay with the top home run hitters from previous season

Quote: rajbhah89

I will be betting daily. Ohtani ,Judge will be common if they dont play on the same day i am not making any bey that day.

If the 3rd player is not playing that day, i take the next player the top 20 home run hitters from last year

I will place 10 bets per day. 2 dollars per bet. 20 dollars for a day.

Bets will be one 2 HR parlay with Judge and Ohtani and nine 3 legs HR parlay with the top home run hitters from previous season
link to original post

If you'd made those bets last year, what would the results have been?

I dont have that results with me. But there were 19 occurences where both the players hit HR on same day. I dont have any data for the other players listed on 3 Legs HR parlays on these dates last year. But i am hoping 2 or 3 players might hit as we have 9 players who were best last year

1 day in April
2 days in May
4 days in June
4 days in July
6 days in August
2 days in September

Quote: rajbhah89

Hi All, MLB season is just around the corner and i want to get feedback on one of the strategy i was thinking to trail run for this season.

Last year, Judge and ohtani hit more than 50 home run each and both of them hit HR on same day in 19 occasions. When parlayed the odds ranged around 1000 to 1700.

Strategy

My Strategy here is parlay them on all days when the both play on same day.and also combine with top 10 home run scorers from last season, and have 10 bets for each day. Say i start with 2 dollars unit and my total bets are 20 dollars per day for 10 bets. The idea here is getting the parlay hit and when it does since i am running 3 legs HR parlays with other top players and if few of them hit i might end up with decent profit.

10 bet i will be making, 2 dollars on each bet and if i get lucky there might be days where 3 or 4 bets can easily win out of these 10 bets and for 3 leg HR parlay, i am expecting around +5000 to +10000 and that could be a very good pay day. And even if i lose for whole month i down only 600 for a 2 dollars unit and based on the results i can increase my unit size.



Play 1 : judge and Ohtani
Play 2 Judge , Ohtani and Santender
Play 3 judge, ohtani and juan soto
Play 4 judge ohtani and Ozuna
Play 5 judge , ohtani and Ramierez
Play 6 judge, ohtani and booker
Play 7 judge , ohtani and Henderson
Play 8 judge, ohtani and schwaber
Play 9 judge ohtani and marte
Play 10 judge ohtani and Vladimir Jr

Sorry if i am missing something very basic and being stupid here
link to original post

You are not being stupid. But you are assuming that both Judge and Ohtani will have equally amazing years similar to last year, and the other 9 guys also will have powerful years. What happens if J hits ‘only’ 45. O hits ‘only’ 40? Then you lose big time.

The question you should ask yourself is this…. Which bet that I will be making do I actually have an advantage over the Sportsbook? Since the answer will be none, can you now see how your system will not be a winner?

Say even they have 45 and 40 HR runs each.The only thing we are banking here is the day in which both of them hit HR. And also parlaying with 9 other players who has more possibility of hitting HR. With few 3 leg HR parlays hitting, the possibility of covering the loss days might be high.

And as you said i am not analysing if its a +ve ev bets.just banking on star players to come good on few days in whole season.

It sounds like betting against regression to the mean. That aspect makes it seem bold rather than smart. But great creativity and entertainment value and a great way to bet on generational stars.

Quote: rajbhah89

Say even they have 45 and 40 HR runs each.The only thing we are banking here is the day in which both of them hit HR. And also parlaying with 9 other players who has more possibility of hitting HR. With few 3 leg HR parlays hitting, the possibility of covering the loss days might be high.

And as you said i am not analysing if its a +ve ev bets.just banking on star players to come good on few days in whole season.
link to original post

Will you be line shopping every day to get the best price? A lot of times HR bet odds can vary wildly between books.

Yes, there is always a risk of both J and O having an average season with 25 or 30 HR runs each.

Yes, i will be shopping for odds. And also be using any profit boosts or bonuses that are available

What’s the point of only playing when J & O play on the same day. Is the theory they are more likely to hit a home run if they play on the same day?

No, there is no such theory. The only reason is in most sportsbook, Player props might not be open early or mid of the playing day.

Say if J plays on 1.10PM EST and O plays on next day 10PM Est next day, sometimes we may not be able to parlay and miss out on that bet.

What is the payout for O and J hitting one the same day? If you are making $2 bets, I'd make that bet, occasionally raising it a dollar so you profit when it almost inevitably happens. It sounds good to me but it's not an area I know a lot about.

History is against a repeat of last year, especially if O pitches full time.
The game has changed as the playoff run is now nearly a month long. It's vital that your players are at their peak in October, which should lead to less at bats over the season.

Odds Ranges from 900 to 1700 if both of them hits