Super Bowl 59
Poll
 | 1 vote (5.88%) | ||
| | 5 votes (29.41%) | ||
| | 4 votes (23.52%) | ||
| | 1 vote (5.88%) | ||
| | 7 votes (41.17%) | ||
| | 1 vote (5.88%) |
17 members have voted
The question for the poll is who do you think and want to win?
Superbowl Line from Hard Rock:
Eagles (+2) -110
Chiefs (-2) -110
Total 49.5
Chiefs seem to be a team of destiny this year but I am sure rooting for the Eagles. If the line goes to three I will probably be betting the Eagles.
Quote: WizardI'm writing this just after the AFC championship game. No lines have been posted yet. That said, I make Phily a 3-point favorite. I set the over/under at 43.5. Let's see how close I come.
The question for the poll is who do you think and want to win?
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You think Philly will be favored over KC??
The Mahomes factor is worth A LOT.
KC 2.5?
Edit. I see it’s 2.
I just like the over on mahomes rush yards. And Hurts rush yards. And I don’t know what the number is yet!
Quote: EvenBobI remember the very first Super Bowl, I was in high school. It wasn't that big a deal, just another added game at the end of the season.
It was a big deal to me, because it also happened to be my first birthday!
Who is that girl Namath is with? I don't think anything became of her.
It was thought that the broadcasts had been lost, but a primitive tape of one of the broadcast was found.a few years ago.
I'd have thought KC would be favored, and I'll be making a small wager on them, as well as there being a safety, and a two point conversion.
Point spread: KC -1.5
Money line: KC -125, Phily +105
Ov/Un: 49.5
Source
you meanQuote: WizardJust to follow the money, here are the going lines as Jan 27, the day after the conference championships:
Point spread: KC -1.5
Money line: KC -125, KC +105
Ov/Un: 49.5
Source
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KC-125, Phi +105
But I voted Think KC, Want Philly.
Frankly I didn’t / don’t care who plays!
All I care about is, will the Wizard’s betting window be open, and when do the prop sheets come out? 😁
Quote: DJTeddyBearDon’t really care who wins.
Frankly I didn’t / don’t care who plays!
All I care about is, will the Wizard’s betting window be open, and when do the prop sheets come out? 😁
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Vegas prop sheets usually start coming out Wednesday or Thursday. Props will continue to be added for a week or so.
Quote: DJTeddyBearAll I care about is, will the Wizard’s betting window be open, and when do the prop sheets come out? 😁
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The props should be out this weekend. However, I'm willing to accept the same lines as last year if you are.
Quote: AutomaticMonkeyWhat's the O/U on Taylor Swift camera appearances?
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It depends. If you only count during the actual game, from kickoff til last play, it’s 5.5. If you include the pre game TV broadcast it’s 6.5.
Probably be spending the week betting on Eagles props, then decide how much to buy off on the Chiefs on game day. Mostly just appreciating the few days it will give cover for betting basketball.
Rampart opened no 2-point conversion at -250 and was there for a full day. It was a good bet, but there will be -220 or so somewhere at sometime. . .
Quote: TomGRampart opened no 2-point conversion at -250 and was there for a full day. It was a good bet, but there will be -220 or so somewhere at sometime. . .
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I didn't know the props were out already. I'll have to stop by there.
Oddly, there has never been a safety in the third quarter of a Super Bowl. The LA Rams did three safeties in the third quarter against the Giants in the 1980s.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: AutomaticMonkeyWhat's the O/U on Taylor Swift camera appearances?
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It depends. If you only count during the actual game, from kickoff til last play, it’s 5.5. If you include the pre game TV broadcast it’s 6.5.
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I would think the true number is much higher than 5.5 or 6.5 but that’s just my intuition. My gut says the -110 line should be like 8.5.
https://www.scribd.com/document/822173703/Westgate-Super-Bowl-59-prop-bets#fullscreen&from_embed
Downloads are behind a paywall. Viewing is free.
Quote: TinManQuote: SOOPOOQuote: AutomaticMonkeyWhat's the O/U on Taylor Swift camera appearances?
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It depends. If you only count during the actual game, from kickoff til last play, it’s 5.5. If you include the pre game TV broadcast it’s 6.5.
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I would think the true number is much higher than 5.5 or 6.5 but that’s just my intuition. My gut says the -110 line should be like 8.5.
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If she is shown repeatedly, it should indicate the Chiefs and her man are doing well. They won't cut to many shots of her after an Eagles score. Won't she be in the same box as Mahome's wife?
Not on DraftKings, but I do see it on FanDuel at: Super Bowl > Scoring Props > Safety During GameQuote: ThatDonGuyMaybe it's just me, but I can't find an online book that has the "safety yes/no" prop. On the other hand, everybody seems to have some sort of Octopus prop, where the same player scores on a touchdown and a 2-point conversion.
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Quote:Yes +1300
No -4500
DraftKings has it in defensive props at +1400 -3000
Converting the odds lines to implied probability:Quote: JohnzimboThat doesn't look right. South Point opened it Yes +700 no -1100
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+1300 = 7.1%
-4500 = 97.8%
+700 = 12.5%
-1100 = 91.7%
EDIT to add:
+1400 = 6.7%
-3000 = 96.8%
It may be worth noting that my FanDuel quote is through logging in to an account based in Illinois (though I am not physically in Illinois), and I suspect RogerKint may be doing the same. It is possible the same company's lines may differ if quoted to an account licensed in a different jurisdiction, as Illinois recently jacked up their State tax on revenue of sportsbetting licensees to 40%. Still, most of that difference compared to SouthPoint is clearly not related to variation in the vig.
I also have a $200 box but I don’t know my numbers yet. I’ve never won anything in about 5 years in this pool.
Quote: TinManIf it’s relevant to anyone, I just saw BetRivers in NY has safety at +1600. That’s the highest I’ve seen. I’m limited there so I put down what I could (a whopping $3.24)
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I hate ambiguous bets. Does that include a 1-point safety or just a 2-point safety? Any lines on the 1-point safety anywhere?
I wonder how often Mahomes has a quarter in which he doesn’t throw for 25 yards? Probably should have found that out before making the bet…..
Got 59% profit boost on HardRock. Going with Chiefs/over. And Mahomes over rushing yards.
Quote: AutomaticMonkeyQuote: TinManIf it’s relevant to anyone, I just saw BetRivers in NY has safety at +1600. That’s the highest I’ve seen. I’m limited there so I put down what I could (a whopping $3.24)
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I hate ambiguous bets. Does that include a 1-point safety or just a 2-point safety? Any lines on the 1-point safety anywhere?
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I have never seen a line anywhere for a 1 point safety. I have seen 1 point safeties happen in college football but don't believe there has been one in the NFL yet,
On a similar note, does a two-point PAT include defensive ones?
Does a bet on a kickoff being returned for a touchdown include a fumble recovery for a touchdown?
Quote: billryanIs the line for a two-point safety or simply a safety?
On a similar note, does a two-point PAT include defensive ones?
Does a bet on a kickoff being returned for a touchdown include a fumble recovery for a touchdown?
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My experience says that an online sportsbook will rule against you on those no matter which side you have.
Quote: TinManAlso, in case anyone is looking for no vig (or maaaaaaaaaaaaybe slightly positive EV) bet, DraftKings in NY has the coin toss at +100 on both sides. I put $30 on tails. The “heads” side of most coins and especially a ceremonial coin is likely more elaborate than the tails side and may be slightly heavier. I may be deluding myself but it makes the coin toss entertaining.
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Most coins aren't designed for a coin flip. This coin was created with one thing in mind- a fair coin flip. I'd say you are fooling yourself.
Quote: billryanQuote: TinManAlso, in case anyone is looking for no vig (or maaaaaaaaaaaaybe slightly positive EV) bet, DraftKings in NY has the coin toss at +100 on both sides. I put $30 on tails. The “heads” side of most coins and especially a ceremonial coin is likely more elaborate than the tails side and may be slightly heavier. I may be deluding myself but it makes the coin toss entertaining.
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Most coins aren't designed for a coin flip. This coin was created with one thing in mind- a fair coin flip. I'd say you are fooling yourself.
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The good thing is if he is wrong and the coin is 100% fair, he still loses nothing on a +100 bet.
Quote: TinManAlso, in case anyone is looking for no vig (or maaaaaaaaaaaaybe slightly positive EV) bet, DraftKings in NY has the coin toss at +100 on both sides. I put $30 on tails. The “heads” side of most coins and especially a ceremonial coin is likely more elaborate than the tails side and may be slightly heavier. I may be deluding myself but it makes the coin toss entertaining.
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I’d be betting the max they allow. You are getting around 0.1-0.2% in DK Crowns that are directly converted to cash. Plus whatever action you are getting with this tiny +EV bet helps your status there getting you more offers down the road. If you can tolerate the variance, it’s a no brainer.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: TinManAlso, in case anyone is looking for no vig (or maaaaaaaaaaaaybe slightly positive EV) bet, DraftKings in NY has the coin toss at +100 on both sides. I put $30 on tails. The “heads” side of most coins and especially a ceremonial coin is likely more elaborate than the tails side and may be slightly heavier. I may be deluding myself but it makes the coin toss entertaining.
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I’d be betting the max they allow. You are getting around 0.1-0.2% in DK Crowns that are directly converted to cash. Plus whatever action you are getting with this tiny +EV bet helps your status there getting you more offers down the road. If you can tolerate the variance, it’s a no brainer.
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If this is the case (DK Crowns and it's benefits), wouldn't you bet the most, and equal, amounts on both sides?
Quote: IndyJeffreyQuote: SOOPOOQuote: TinManAlso, in case anyone is looking for no vig (or maaaaaaaaaaaaybe slightly positive EV) bet, DraftKings in NY has the coin toss at +100 on both sides. I put $30 on tails. The “heads” side of most coins and especially a ceremonial coin is likely more elaborate than the tails side and may be slightly heavier. I may be deluding myself but it makes the coin toss entertaining.
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I’d be betting the max they allow. You are getting around 0.1-0.2% in DK Crowns that are directly converted to cash. Plus whatever action you are getting with this tiny +EV bet helps your status there getting you more offers down the road. If you can tolerate the variance, it’s a no brainer.
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If this is the case (DK Crowns and it's benefits), wouldn't you bet the most, and equal, amounts on both sides?
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Not if you only have 1 account at your disposal. Their T and C’s prohibit betting on both sides to take advantage of an offer. You would need a ‘friend’ to use his account to bet the other side.
successful
DK +260
FD +180
attempt
DK +110
FD -105
Reasoning (justification?) figures it's the last game, for the championship, nothing to lose, go for it, etc. I don't think the regular season stats and approach necessarily apply to SB.
Thoughts?
Quote: IndyJeffreyOne bet I find intriguing is attempted / successful 2pt conversion. On DK...
successful
DK +260
FD +180
attempt
DK +110
FD -105
Reasoning (justification?) figures it's the last game, for the championship, nothing to lose, go for it, etc. I don't think the regular season stats and approach necessarily apply to SB.
Thoughts?
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Two point conversions are a ‘numbers’ decision, versus what you are referring to as ‘nothing to lose’. You are down 14-6, and score a TD, you go for 2. Down 24-0, late, you score a TD, you go for 2. Etc….I HIGHLY doubt there will be a team down 1 point that goes for 2 rather than go for 1.
I had to make $100 in SB bets to get a bonus, so LOTS of $2, $3 type bets.
Quote: WizardVery early line is KC -1.5, ov/un 49.5. That said, I like Phily and the under. My lines have never been this off before. Usually I'm within a point of both.
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Let's have an updated look, as of 5:13 PM (PST), Feb 4.
Against the spread, KC has moved to a 1-point favorite.
Money line is KC -120, Phil EV
Over/under has moved to 49.0
Bottom line is the market agrees with me. Should have bet more early as I'm all over Phily and the under.
If you're on Phily, I suggest betting the money line rather than getting the point. If you're on KC, I'd bet against the spread.
Let the record show I booked the following bets by DJTeddyBear.
In case anyone is confused, I took the Yes on those bets. Mike is on the No. And we do the no vig middle.Quote: Wizard
Let the record show I booked the following bets by DJTeddyBear.
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As indicated, my total risk is $460.00 while Mike’s is $3241.88.
We’ve done these bets for several years. I’m not a big sports guy. This, and a couple boxes at work, are it for me. But for SB, I like the simple props where I can get the results by reading the box score. I’ll be half watching the game while playing poker at Wind Creek in PA.
I’ve not had a year that I didn’t win at least one bet. In one year, I ended up owing $3.75. 🤪 We double or nothinged that by playing waitress trivia. 😁
FYI. We use the Westgate prop numbers, from the link I provided earlier in this thread: https://www.scribd.com/document/822173703/Westgate-Super-Bowl-59-prop-bets#fullscreen&from_embed
Thanks for the action again Mike!
In case anyone cares, he may have been able to get better odds. It’s -2500 at FanDuel NY.
Also, I found an analysis of NFL games from 2014 to present. It claims the true odds for “yes” should be +2840, which implies -2500 on “no” is a good price (depending on how much you adjust for SB teams being different from the larger population of all NFL games).
I bet $10 on the “no” to win 40 cents.
On the other side of the bet, I wanted some silly action to go along with beer and wings and pizza, so I put $1 on Mahomes octopus at +25,000. Probably lit that money on fire, but it’s a fun sweat for a potential $250
Edit: if I’m thinking about this correctly, I think you can get better odds betting each individual quarter total of 0 at BetMGM. I was able to get +1050, +3000, +1100 and +2000 for each quarter. From what I’ve seen, by far the most likely “no score” quarter is the first.
