MichaelBluejay
MichaelBluejay
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December 6th, 2024 at 8:52:57 PM permalink
I don't know if this was a good bet. Joe Walsh and Don Henley are pretty old, and guitars aren't very effective against carnivores.

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/someone-bet-3-1-million-on-the-eagles-to-beat-the-panthers-at-700-odds
I run Easy Vegas ( https://easy.vegas )
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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December 7th, 2024 at 4:45:30 AM permalink
Quote: MichaelBluejay

I don't know if this was a good bet.
link to original post

It raises the question whether the line move made the Panthers bet worthwhile


"it pushed Panthers odds to +650." article says, without saying where those odds started from, so what do we know?

we know that +650 doesn't make a previously made -700 bet "upside down" exploitable, as Unjon puts it*

does it make it possibly +EV assuming the oddsmaker has the probability right? I did doubt it since it isn't upside down vis a vis original, but checking today's NFL games with a calculator. looks like the moneyline bets like to be put at about 5% vig. So a -700 should have been countered with about +475

the implied probabilty if fair odds are 1/8 and 1/5.75, resp., naturally not the same. But we can estimate the oddsmaker thought the probabilty of the underdog winning was in the middle , about 1 in 7. So if the oddsmaker was accurate, a fair bet for that +zone moneyline would be 6 to one, or +600. +650 then is +EV with all those assumptions in place.

conclusion: if you know the odds move due to a big bet, not player injury or similar, then a +EV situation may be in place.

Disclaimer: mistakes possible, no one checks this work

* just giving often helpful Unjon credit for pointing out that this can be determined at a glance
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
unJon
unJon
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MichaelBluejay
December 8th, 2024 at 1:43:22 PM permalink
The guy got his money’s worth for a sweat.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
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