Talldude90
Talldude90
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March 15th, 2024 at 12:13:09 PM permalink
Hi, new to sports betting here.

I am mainly looking at the profit boost offers.

If it's a 50% profit boost and the spread bets are -110/-110 what would the RTP be?

Also how would this be changed if you had to do the profit boost on a parlay say combining a +200 and a -200 bet?

Specifically looking at CZR at the moment but in general.

Please show the math (or link me to it), I am trying to learn here.
Talldude90
Talldude90
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March 16th, 2024 at 8:37:18 PM permalink
I'm fine with just PMs, is this a sensitive subject or something?
unJon
unJon
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Talldude90
March 16th, 2024 at 9:14:40 PM permalink
You might try the sports betting chatter thread where SOOPOO is taking advantage of stuff like this. He may not have seen the is thread.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Talldude90
Talldude90
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March 16th, 2024 at 9:24:37 PM permalink
I'll check it out, I'm just very new to sorts betting to the point it took me losing a spread bet to understand how they even worked. And I figured they're talking advanced level.
odiousgambit
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Talldude90
March 17th, 2024 at 2:54:58 AM permalink
Quote: Talldude90

Hi, new to sports betting here.

I am mainly looking at the profit boost offers.

If it's a 50% profit boost and the spread bets are -110/-110 what would the RTP be?

OK, let's look at it

in the above, you can theoretically take either side, chances of winning perhaps evenly split between the two, not necessarily but let's assume it for this. A 50% boost will be the same too

-110 means the payout ratio 100:110, the books like to say if you bet $110 you win $100, but you may be able to bet as little as 10 cents and that's the ratio. So for 10c you'd multiply times 100/110 and you get 9c in winnings, if you bet $10 you get $9.09. For the latter, they show you 19.09 for a ‘payout’ which will include your original wager, don’t be confused by that.

So I view the + and - signs like this: if the sign is minus, I get less than I bet, and the ratio to multiply is 100/110 , if the sign is positive, the factor is 110/100, in other words the ratio is reversed. Not sure if you were true newbie on this but when I started, I needed to know all that

We said we’d assume the chances of winning are 50-50. So we will use the formula for the expected value [EV] and get to RTP later, using $10

‘the amount to be won times the chances of winning minus the amount to lose times the chances to lose’

that’s 0.50*9.09-0.50*10=-0.455 notice the minus sign and remember this is the EV

edge is EV divided by amnt bet

so we get -0.0455 or -4.55% edge, subtract that from 100% to get RTP and I’ll let you do that

What about a 50% boost?

the amount to win now becomes 9.09*150%=13.635 [you’ll find they usually round down]

‘the amount to be won times the chances of winning minus the amount to lose times the chances to lose’

that’s 0.50*13.63-0.50*10= 1.815 notice no minus sign

edge is EV divided by amnt bet

so we get 0.1815 or 18.15% edge, add that to 100% to get RTP … 118.1%, not bad.

Quote:

Also how would this be changed if you had to do the profit boost on a parlay say combining a +200 and a -200 bet?

Parlays are a different matter.

If you did the above you’d get odds of +350 on your bet. Use the calculator below. What you can expect is that if the bets are negative expectation [-EV] then that gets magnified. If +EV then that is also magnified, generally that would mean the oddsmaker was wrong on both bets.

But you get 50% boost, yep that ought to do it.

The online sites are bragging that they are ‘increasing hold’ by suckering players into doing parlay bets. My advice really is to stay away from them. Personally, I figure a 25% boost is break-even on a 3 leg parlay and 3 legs is often what they will insist on. I won’t dispute that a 50% boost shouldn’t be the ticket, if you are offered that and are cleaning up, don’t expect it to continue. Your variance, your ups and downs, could be radical too

https://www.vegasinsider.com/parlay-calculator/ you'll find same game parlays will alter the outcome, for reasons I won't get into other than to say that the gambling sites really like same game parlays. Why would that be?

Quote:

Specifically looking at CZR at the moment but in general.

Please show the math (or link me to it), I am trying to learn here.

I hated CZR for desktop use, I suppose a smartphone app might have changed my mind. YMMV

link to original post
Last edited by: odiousgambit on Mar 17, 2024
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
SOOPOO
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Talldude90
March 17th, 2024 at 7:56:55 AM permalink
I’ll give an answer here, but in the future you might as well use my other thread since it is really one topic.

I’ll give some examples. You have a 50% profit boost. All will be on $10 bets.

Example 1. You just use it on a -110 bet. $10 pays $19.52 before the boost. After the boost pays $24.28.
1/2 the time you lose $10.
1/2 the time you win $14.28
So on average you win $2.14.

Example 2. You use it on a 2 leg parlay both at -110. $10 pays $36.40 before the boost. After the boost pays $49.60.
3/4 of the time you lose $10.
1/4 of the time you win $39.60
So on average you win $2.40.

Example 3. You use it on a 3 leg parlay all at -110. $10 pays $69.60 before the boost. $99.40 after the boost.
7/8 of the time you lose $10. 1/8 of the time you win $89.40. So $2.425 on average.

I tend to do example 2 with 50% profit boosts. Giving up pennies in EV for much less variance.

If you just want to pick mild single underdog, say +250, it is similar to example 2. A bigger underdog is similar to example 3.
Talldude90
Talldude90
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March 17th, 2024 at 9:00:54 AM permalink
Thank you. I was reading the chatter thread, but your going 90 miles a minute on things I haven't touched yet. I want to learn the things you talk about there, but I don't want to miss out on what seems like +ev when I keep seeing 50 and sometimes 100% profit boosts that my intuition tells me should have to be +. If you want you can ask the moderators to move the relevant info to the chatter thread and dispose of this one.
mcallister3200
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March 17th, 2024 at 9:32:38 AM permalink
FWIW when you’re offered a profit boost make sure to check the lines at other books for the bet. There are times there is a substantial profit boost and the odds are still worse than the same bet on another site licensed in the state.
SOOPOO
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March 17th, 2024 at 12:37:05 PM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

FWIW when you’re offered a profit boost make sure to check the lines at other books for the bet. There are times there is a substantial profit boost and the odds are still worse than the same bet on another site licensed in the state.
link to original post



When I’m motivated I’ll find all the pointspread or over/under bets. I’ll take the ‘free’ extra point or 1/2 point on the site offering the profit boost. So I’m guessing I get up to 50.5% or so on each bet. Not enough to beat a straight vig but when I add that to the profit boost it can’t hurt!

Sometimes a promo requires 4 bets parlayed but all longer than -500. If the site I’m on has 10 between -300 and -500, I’ll check another website and take the 4 with the best odds when comparing the two sites. Probably adds a few percent in EV.
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