Would you chop this?

My nephew called, looking for some advice.
He's in a survivor pool with 3890 entrees. $100 an entree. He is one of ten left standing. There are three propositions.
1) split the $389,000 ten ways.
2) split $20,000 each and play out the remaining $189,000
3)split $10,000 each and play the remaining $289,000.

They've agreed to do whatever 80% votes for. The default is to do nothing, and play it out.
What would you do, and why? For reference, he and his wife earn about a half million dollars annually, so it's not life-changing either way.
I'd go with option 2, but I'm not sure what the right thing for him is.

Quote: billryan

My nephew called, looking for some advice.
He's in a survivor pool with 3890 entrees. $100 an entree. He is one of ten left standing. There are three propositions.
1) split the $389,000 ten ways.
2) split $20,000 each and play out the remaining $189,000
3)split $10,000 each and play the remaining $289,000.

They've agreed to do whatever 80% votes for. The default is to do nothing, and play it out.
What would you do, and why? For reference, he and his wife earn about a half million dollars annually, so it's not life-changing either way.
I'd go with option 2, but I'm not sure what the right thing for him is.
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All are equal EV. Of course. Although not life changing, the dollar amounts are ‘meaningful’ for someone in your nephew’s income level. I feel like I’d go for #2.

Let’s say he has to play it out. I’d probably hedge against my pick. Let’s say I had 49ers who are playing Commanders. I can get around +600 on Commanders. I’d bet $2k on Commanders to give me a $12k consolation prize if I lose….
Maybe have to do the same next week or two.

Quote: billryan

My nephew called, looking for some advice.
He's in a survivor pool with 3890 entrees. $100 an entree. He is one of ten left standing. There are three propositions.
1) split the $389,000 ten ways.
2) split $20,000 each and play out the remaining $189,000
3)split $10,000 each and play the remaining $289,000.

They've agreed to do whatever 80% votes for. The default is to do nothing, and play it out.
What would you do, and why? For reference, he and his wife earn about a half million dollars annually, so it's not life-changing either way.
I'd go with option 2, but I'm not sure what the right thing for him is.
link to original post

I would have to analyze what teams each person has already used and who is still available before determining. That information is usually available.

Quote: DRich

Quote: billryan

My nephew called, looking for some advice.
He's in a survivor pool with 3890 entrees. $100 an entree. He is one of ten left standing. There are three propositions.
1) split the $389,000 ten ways.
2) split $20,000 each and play out the remaining $189,000
3)split $10,000 each and play the remaining $289,000.

They've agreed to do whatever 80% votes for. The default is to do nothing, and play it out.
What would you do, and why? For reference, he and his wife earn about a half million dollars annually, so it's not life-changing either way.
I'd go with option 2, but I'm not sure what the right thing for him is.
link to original post

I would have to analyze what teams each person has already used and who is still available before determining. That information is usually available.
link to original post

He mentioned that one person had The Eagles left, but not who he had remaining.

Quote: DRich

Quote: billryan

My nephew called, looking for some advice.
He's in a survivor pool with 3890 entrees. $100 an entree. He is one of ten left standing. There are three propositions.
1) split the $389,000 ten ways.
2) split $20,000 each and play out the remaining $189,000
3)split $10,000 each and play the remaining $289,000.

They've agreed to do whatever 80% votes for. The default is to do nothing, and play it out.
What would you do, and why? For reference, he and his wife earn about a half million dollars annually, so it's not life-changing either way.
I'd go with option 2, but I'm not sure what the right thing for him is.
link to original post

I would have to analyze what teams each person has already used and who is still available before determining. That information is usually available.
link to original post

Good point!!! This late in the season the EV’s of each individual could be vastly different. since there appears to be no vig, I assume this is a ‘home’ game that someone reputable has exactly what teams are available to the 10 remaining players. And should be public knowledge.

Quote: billryan

My nephew called, looking for some advice.
He's in a survivor pool with 3890 entrees. $100 an entree. He is one of ten left standing. There are three propositions.
1) split the $389,000 ten ways.
2) split $20,000 each and play out the remaining $189,000
3)split $10,000 each and play the remaining $289,000.

They've agreed to do whatever 80% votes for. The default is to do nothing, and play it out.
What would you do, and why? For reference, he and his wife earn about a half million dollars annually, so it's not life-changing either way.
I'd go with option 2, but I'm not sure what the right thing for him is.
link to original post

I'd ask the other nine what they're voting for and then follow that up by vociferously arguing in favor of the most common choice.

*At that point, and also since winning is likely to result in some sort of chop anyway, I just want to get to where I don't need to win.

I hate even chops at a poker table. There are accepted methods of paying out each player a different fraction of the pool according to stack size.

I think you should be able to do something similar here. Use the public lines for each remaining game to determine how likely each of them is to win the contest and how likely that a win will be split with others. Basically a simple equity calculation based on implied probabilities of the public line.

Quote: Mental

I hate even chops at a poker table. There are accepted methods of paying out each player a different fraction of the pool according to stack size.

I think you should be able to do something similar here. Use the public lines for each remaining game to determine how likely each of them is to win the contest and how likely that a win will be split with others. Basically a simple equity calculation based on implied probabilities of the public line.
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Unless if this is the last week GUARANTEED of the contest it can’t be done. You won’t be able to find lines on next week’s games, Nor have an idea of which teams will be ‘trying’ or ‘resting’ their starters.

Both Browns and 49ers have reasonable scenarios where next weeks game is meaningless. And also scenarios where it’s a huge game for them.

I’m also guessing if you were in the contest, and said you were entitled to 23%, players B and C 14%, and each of the others 7% you would not be able to explain it to 7 of them sufficiently. EVEN if you were correct!