Sportsbook newbie question

I’ve never placed a single sports book bet before.

I need to signup for Caesars Sportsbook to get Diamond status (1000 TC bonus) and they have a “risk free bet” promo up to $1250.

What would be some specific bets I should make to achieve a reasonable EV for this promo?

Any suggestions to avoid issues would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks,

-DR

Quote: DealtRoyal

I’ve never placed a single sports book bet before.

I need to signup for Caesars Sportsbook to get Diamond status (1000 TC bonus) and they have a “risk free bet” promo up to $1250.

What would be some specific bets I should make to achieve a reasonable EV for this promo?

Any suggestions to avoid issues would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks,

-DR
link to original post

‘Risk free’ of course isn’t risk free. I’d need more information about you to answer.
Are you trying to maximize the EV of the offer but could lose money if unlucky?
Do you want to guarantee a win which is less than the actual EV of the promotion?
I had a $5k risk free bet. I turned it into $2700ish cash essentially with very little risk.
A friend had a $3k risk free bet. He bet a slight underdog and won $3120. But had that bet lost he would have had $0 and $3000 in free bets. Which is worth a tad less than $2k. Anyway, he was willing to lose (I wasn’t) to maximize his EV.

It sounds like I should plan a first bet with a team that is the underdog and if I lose that bet a 2nd underdog bet could recoup my buy-in.

What I don’t seem to understand is how to find a bet that is enough of an underdog to be profitable but without so much risk that it would win. Is there a specific line that would capture this type of bet?

-DR

First u have to pick a WINNER

Yea, I watch some sports but have trouble picking a winner. I’m not much better than a coin flip.

Quote: DealtRoyal

Yea, I watch some sports but have trouble picking a winner. I’m not much better than a coin flip.
link to original post

When it doubt, flip it out. The value is in the promotion bonus.

Quote: DealtRoyal

It sounds like I should plan a first bet with a team that is the underdog and if I lose that bet a 2nd underdog bet could recoup my buy-in.

What I don’t seem to understand is how to find a bet that is enough of an underdog to be profitable but without so much risk that it would win. Is there a specific line that would capture this type of bet?

-DR
link to original post

What you need to do is find TWO "risk-free" promotions. Bet both sides of something close, maybe baseball with one team +110 and one -125. Then keep the winner, use the "risk free refund" to make a big free bet on something stronger, maybe a -170 baseball bet.

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: DealtRoyal

It sounds like I should plan a first bet with a team that is the underdog and if I lose that bet a 2nd underdog bet could recoup my buy-in.

What I don’t seem to understand is how to find a bet that is enough of an underdog to be profitable but without so much risk that it would win. Is there a specific line that would capture this type of bet?

-DR
link to original post

What you need to do is find TWO "risk-free" promotions. Bet both sides of something close, maybe baseball with one team +110 and one -125. Then keep the winner, use the "risk free refund" to make a big free bet on something stronger, maybe a -170 baseball bet.
link to original post

This is one way to guarantee a win but give up LOTS of EV.
You would NEVER want to use the ‘free bet’ on a big favorite. As far as EV goes, you’d want to make it on an underdog for sure.

Now back to answering the OP’s original question. Your proposed attempt is actually pretty good as far as EV. Meaning bet an underdog initially, and if you lose bet another underdog with the ‘free bet’ you received. But remember, it is quite possible you could lose both. As an example, if you take moderate underdogs that will win 1/3 of the time, you will lose two consecutive such bets 44% of the time! If you can tolerate the possibility of losing it all, it’s still a great bet from an EV standpoint. As far as what game to pick, as Axel said, coin flip is as good a method as any.

One little thing to remember. You want the first bet to RESOLVE either as a win or a loss. So if you are giving or laying points make sure it is a 1/2 point line. I think they only give the offer on your first bet.

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: DealtRoyal

It sounds like I should plan a first bet with a team that is the underdog and if I lose that bet a 2nd underdog bet could recoup my buy-in.

What I don’t seem to understand is how to find a bet that is enough of an underdog to be profitable but without so much risk that it would win. Is there a specific line that would capture this type of bet?

-DR
link to original post

What you need to do is find TWO "risk-free" promotions. Bet both sides of something close, maybe baseball with one team +110 and one -125. Then keep the winner, use the "risk free refund" to make a big free bet on something stronger, maybe a -170 baseball bet.
link to original post

This is one way to guarantee a win but give up LOTS of EV.
You would NEVER want to use the ‘free bet’ on a big favorite. As far as EV goes, you’d want to make it on an underdog for sure.

Different investment and risk philosophy, I prefer a covered call scalp to a longer term play. Less risk and faster reward. My way is just doing that on sports.

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: DealtRoyal

It sounds like I should plan a first bet with a team that is the underdog and if I lose that bet a 2nd underdog bet could recoup my buy-in.

What I don’t seem to understand is how to find a bet that is enough of an underdog to be profitable but without so much risk that it would win. Is there a specific line that would capture this type of bet?

-DR
link to original post

What you need to do is find TWO "risk-free" promotions. Bet both sides of something close, maybe baseball with one team +110 and one -125. Then keep the winner, use the "risk free refund" to make a big free bet on something stronger, maybe a -170 baseball bet.
link to original post

This is one way to guarantee a win but give up LOTS of EV.
You would NEVER want to use the ‘free bet’ on a big favorite. As far as EV goes, you’d want to make it on an underdog for sure.

Different investment and risk philosophy, I prefer a covered call scalp to a longer term play. Less risk and faster reward. My way is just doing that on sports.
link to original post

As an example. Would you prefer to get 75% of the value with some manageable risk, or lock up 25%? I say somewhere in the middle.

Everyone is in a different situation, but if you're planning on doing +EV plays long-term then it's good not to get in the habit of giving up too much value. Obviously, if maximum value requires you to be looking down the barrel at some impossible long shot, that's not very practical, but a 3 or 4 to one-shot is manageable.

That sounds like a reasonable strategy, from what I read hedging and betting favorites is not great for this type of bet . Would finding a +125 - +150 line for the initial as well the free bet if loser work or should I find a different line?

Thanks,

-DR

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: DealtRoyal

It sounds like I should plan a first bet with a team that is the underdog and if I lose that bet a 2nd underdog bet could recoup my buy-in.

What I don’t seem to understand is how to find a bet that is enough of an underdog to be profitable but without so much risk that it would win. Is there a specific line that would capture this type of bet?

-DR
link to original post

What you need to do is find TWO "risk-free" promotions. Bet both sides of something close, maybe baseball with one team +110 and one -125. Then keep the winner, use the "risk free refund" to make a big free bet on something stronger, maybe a -170 baseball bet.
link to original post

This is one way to guarantee a win but give up LOTS of EV.
You would NEVER want to use the ‘free bet’ on a big favorite. As far as EV goes, you’d want to make it on an underdog for sure.

Different investment and risk philosophy, I prefer a covered call scalp to a longer term play. Less risk and faster reward. My way is just doing that on sports.
link to original post

As an example. Would you prefer to get 75% of the value with some manageable risk, or lock up 25%? I say somewhere in the middle.

Everyone is in a different situation, but if you're planning on doing +EV plays long-term then it's good not to get in the habit of giving up too much value. Obviously, if maximum value requires you to be looking down the barrel at some impossible long shot, that's not very practical, but a 3 or 4 to one-shot is manageable.
link to original post

Nobody ever went broke taking profits.

This comes down to "training" or how you came into sports betting. If you come from other kinds of betting you probably take more risk, If you come to it from stock trading you more likely manage it. One of the wizards in "Gambling Wizards" said most APs will go broke time to time, I forget the exacts. I do not want to have to rebuild a stake at my age. I want the scalps.