... NFL Prop calc for College Football..
September 4th, 2022 at 11:19:18 PM
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Hi,
I am thinking of using this NFL Prop Calc for College Football and wanted to discuss a "win by exactly 3 points" strategy, before I went any further with a "real money betting trial" (see draft strategy, below).
Draft Strategy:
1) Look for game's that have a line of 0 to 14.5 (preferably. less than 10), and with total's that are less than 63 (preferably, less than 55).
2) For each potential game , type those figures into the "NFL Prop Calc" in the link above to get an estimate of the "Win by 3" chance.
3) If the estimated edge from "2)" above is +14% ^^^ or more, then make the bet, otherwise repeat from step "1)" for a new game.
^^^: Last year I started using a similar strategy for the NFL, but instead I use 8% as the cutoff for the estimated edge, when deciding to bet or not.
See a "real world example" for a game this week, below:
Boston College and Virginia Tech:
Line: 3
Total: 45.5
Estimated chance of either team winning by exactly 3: ~15.67%
Combined odds*** on offer for the above: ~$7.67 (or +667)
***: $14 and $17 for the favorite and 'dog, respectively (to win by exactly 3).
Estimated edge: ~ +20.2%
I am thinking of using this NFL Prop Calc for College Football and wanted to discuss a "win by exactly 3 points" strategy, before I went any further with a "real money betting trial" (see draft strategy, below).
Draft Strategy:
1) Look for game's that have a line of 0 to 14.5 (preferably. less than 10), and with total's that are less than 63 (preferably, less than 55).
2) For each potential game , type those figures into the "NFL Prop Calc" in the link above to get an estimate of the "Win by 3" chance.
3) If the estimated edge from "2)" above is +14% ^^^ or more, then make the bet, otherwise repeat from step "1)" for a new game.
^^^: Last year I started using a similar strategy for the NFL, but instead I use 8% as the cutoff for the estimated edge, when deciding to bet or not.
See a "real world example" for a game this week, below:
Boston College and Virginia Tech:
Line: 3
Total: 45.5
Estimated chance of either team winning by exactly 3: ~15.67%
Combined odds*** on offer for the above: ~$7.67 (or +667)
***: $14 and $17 for the favorite and 'dog, respectively (to win by exactly 3).
Estimated edge: ~ +20.2%
