10 point automatic win.
Or, did you mean assuming FD's lines are right?
If the second of those things, then it's definitely coming to light even more how much insight someone would have to think they have on a favorite to prefer it to its underdog.
Quote: Mission146Favorites I have at 1.65% gains over the five year period. Underdogs gained 24.23% over the period.
Or, did you mean assuming FD's lines are right?
If the second of those things, then it's definitely coming to light even more how much insight someone would have to think they have on a favorite to prefer it to its underdog.
link to original post
I must have looked at the 2021 figures or something, the new figures I have using , 24.23% 'dogs and 1.65% for Favs are below (incl. working/reasoning).
Working:
Dog's = 124.23% - 96.09% (average return on a ML 'dog bet) = 28.14% as the average "gross added value***, when betting on 'dogs".
Favs' = 101.65% - 93.76% (average return on a ML Fav' bet) = 7.89% as the average "gross added value*** , when betting on Favs' ".
***: I think I have worked that out correctly, this time (?)
Using the figures above, I get the following (when assuming that the FD lines are closer to correct / fair):
The Falcons being: 86.5% (average RTP before promo) + 28.14% ("added value" from promo) = 114.64%
and the Rams being: 99% (average RTP before promo) + 7.89% (" added value" from promo) = 106.89%
----
Update (~1620, Pac Time):
Conclusion unchanged from previous post, as it is an even bigger difference now (see below)
Quote: ksdjdj(snip)
Conclusion:
From this we can see that betting the Falcons with this promo is still the better bet, even if we assume that the FD odds are the ones that are "closer to fair" (before the vig ).
(snip)
link to original post
So either up 107 or 342 today. I’ll of course let everyone know if same offer is available for the Monday night games tomorrow.
The game I was least happy betting the underdog was the Jets. I’m glad I resisted my ‘thinking’!
Quote: SOOPOO+$157 on day games today. Still pending Bears 50 to win 185
So either up 107 or 342 today. I’ll of course let everyone know if same offer is available for the Monday night games tomorrow.
The game I was least happy betting the underdog was the Jets. I’m glad I resisted my ‘thinking’!
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Some absolutely wild games today. The Cardinals game was unbelievable. Texans had a few opportunities to go up 10 but blew it (ie, they had the ball up 3 a few times). Oh well.
Quote: SOOPOONo ‘guaranteed win’ offer on tonight’s two games. They do have a 7 point one for Thursday night. I have Steelers at +175.
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I like that bet.
Quote: DRichQuote: SOOPOONo ‘guaranteed win’ offer on tonight’s two games. They do have a 7 point one for Thursday night. I have Steelers at +175.
link to original post
I like that bet.
link to original post
Steelers never up by 7 and lost. They certainly had their chances. Two bad teams going nowhere. Browns are 2-1 but do not appear to be a real threat. Steelers look like a 4-13 team.
No offer as of yet for the Sunday slate of games.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: DRichQuote: SOOPOONo ‘guaranteed win’ offer on tonight’s two games. They do have a 7 point one for Thursday night. I have Steelers at +175.
link to original post
I like that bet.
link to original post
Steelers never up by 7 and lost. They certainly had their chances. Two bad teams going nowhere. Browns are 2-1 but do not appear to be a real threat. Steelers look like a 4-13 team.
No offer as of yet for the Sunday slate of games.
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I expect the Steelers to be a little below .500
Quote: SOOPOONo offer as of yet for the Sunday slate of games
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/draftkings-halt-nfl-early-win-up-10-promotion-sunday-paying-out-75-million
Quote: WigginsQuote: SOOPOONo offer as of yet for the Sunday slate of games
https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/draftkings-halt-nfl-early-win-up-10-promotion-sunday-paying-out-75-million
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Too many APs will kill the play.
DK consistently has the best promos. A few weeks ago I got two different sets of vouchers. One promo was 50% profit boost for up 5 MLB bets. The other was 25% for up to 10 MLB bets. I hit a +800 and then a +1500 and I believe a shorter long shot as well. I forget the exact numbers but it was profitable. I was one strike away from hitting another +1700 parlay on the same promo. So frustrating.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: DRichQuote: SOOPOONo ‘guaranteed win’ offer on tonight’s two games. They do have a 7 point one for Thursday night. I have Steelers at +175.
link to original post
I like that bet.
link to original post
Steelers never up by 7 and lost. They certainly had their chances. Two bad teams going nowhere. Browns are 2-1 but do not appear to be a real threat. Steelers look like a 4-13 team.
No offer as of yet for the Sunday slate of games.
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You'll like the upcoming Steeler Talk article.
I hope some of you guys read Week 2's Steeler Talk. I nailed the final score of the game, to the point, had it not been for that fluke lateralroosky fumble.
I just placed my $50 bet on…. the Dolphins…. $50 wins I think it was $85….. Up by 7 at any point and it’s a win….
Bengals 38. Dolphins 10
If the dog outscores the fave by 10 at the start of the game and goes on to lose (SB XXII:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_XXII), this is always sufficient to gain you an extra payoff.
If the fave outscores the dog by 10 at the start of the game, this is almost never helps you.
If the dog outscores the fave by 10 at any other point in the game, this is usually not sufficient to meet the conditions.
It is my intuition that I betting the dog would result in more wins and at higher odds then betting the favorites if you run MC simulations or look at historical results. This is because the score is always tied at the start of the game and the dog has the ball first half the time.
Quote: MentalIn order to win, you always need both teams to outscore the opponent by 10 points in some interval of the game, right? This is a necessary but not a sufficient condition. This outscoring has to occur at the right points in the game where the change in score helps you win a bet you would otherwise lose.
If the dog outscores the fave by 10 at the start of the game and goes on to lose (SB XXII:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_XXII), this is always sufficient to gain you an extra payoff.
If the fave outscores the dog by 10 at the start of the game, this is almost never helps you.
If the dog outscores the fave by 10 at any other point in the game, this is usually not sufficient to meet the conditions.
It is my intuition that I betting the dog would result in more wins and at higher odds then betting the favorites if you run MC simulations or look at historical results. This is because the score is always tied at the start of the game and the dog has the ball first half the time.
link to original post
Your first sentence is wrong. You win if EITHER of these two events occur.
1. Your team leads by 7 points at any point during the game
OR
2. Your team wins the game.
( For the 7 point automatic win offer, OBVIOUSLY for the 10 point automatic win offer change the 7 to a 10)
"In order to win A BET YOU WOULD HAVE LOST, you always need both teams to outscore the opponent by 10 points in some interval of the game, right?"
I use this phrase in the next sentence.
Quote: MentalYes, I meant to write:
"In order to win A BET YOU WOULD HAVE LOST, you always need both teams to outscore the opponent by 10 points in some interval of the game, right?"
I use this phrase in the next sentence.
link to original post
Mission did a THOROUGH analysis of this. I think he came up with around 8% of the time a team will be up by 10 and lose. And using standard betting lines, you have a significant edge just betting every underdog, and a small edge if you bet every favorite. Seems like around 10 games so far this year that a 10 point lead team has lost. That’s enough to make $$$
Quote: SOOPOOLooking ahead at this weeks games I had my ‘lock of the year’ as the Bengals over the Dolphins.
I just placed my $50 bet on…. the Dolphins…. $50 wins I think it was $85….. Up by 7 at any point and it’s a win….
Bengals 38. Dolphins 10
link to original post
According to the link here the Dolphins get the first TD, and the final score should be 20-17 (Bengals win).
Glad you won your bet ( at least in that universe).
Quote: MentalIn order to win, you always need both teams to outscore the opponent by 10 points in some interval of the game, right? This is a necessary but not a sufficient condition. This outscoring has to occur at the right points in the game where the change in score helps you win a bet you would otherwise lose.
If the dog outscores the fave by 10 at the start of the game and goes on to lose (SB XXII:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_XXII), this is always sufficient to gain you an extra payoff.
If the fave outscores the dog by 10 at the start of the game, this is almost never helps you.
If the dog outscores the fave by 10 at any other point in the game, this is usually not sufficient to meet the conditions.
It is my intuition that I betting the dog would result in more wins and at higher odds then betting the favorites if you run MC simulations or look at historical results. This is because the score is always tied at the start of the game and the dog has the ball first half the time.
link to original post
Your intuition is correct; I already have looked at historical results for the last five years and wrote a page of more than 20,000 words (linked a few pages back) with my findings (for the promotion based on 10 points). Underdogs have such a huge advantage compared to favorites that, barring the perception of incredible insight, it would be unconscionable to do anything except bet underdogs.
Your goal is just to win the bet, not to, 'Satisfy the conditions.' If the underdog is up by ten late in the game and wins the game, then your bet still wins, so what's the difference? It would be like betting an underdog at any other time and the dog just winning.
I made this point on the WizardofOdds page when I analyzed this promotion. If a team goes up 10 with three seconds left in the game, then they aren't losing the game, but you still win the bet. The more time remaining in the game, the more likely there is to be a comeback. For that reason, if this promotion is going to pay out by added stipulation, then it will typically be because the selected team led early in the game.
