Grant it that the pole sitter only accounts for 20% of the wins, but I think I have found an edge.
By the way, I like Ford to win the race at Michigan this week if you want to just bet on the manufacturer’s
Quote: VegasriderI have discovered a casino who does not adjust the future lines or at least they are slow to respond after Saturdays qualifying. Usually if a driver wins the pole, you see their odds cut at least in half. Or the action is frozen until they adjust accordingly. Last week, Tyler Reddick who is a great road course driver won the pole at Indy. His odds dropped from 10:1 to 5:1 at multiple books. However I was able to bet him at 10:1 at one independent book. He ends up winning the race and I collect.
Grant it that the pole sitter only accounts for 20% of the wins, but I think I have found an edge.
By the way, I like Ford to win the race at Michigan this week if you want to just bet on the manufacturer’s
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Good find! I’ve made a bunch on NASCAR recently with odds boosts. I’ve gotten 8,9, or 10-1 on the pole sitter which is definitely +EV. I bet on other non pole sitter favorites as well if the pole sitter was not a top contender. Recently won on Denny Hamlin that way. VERY stressful watching the end praying there won’t be a caution which likely would have cost him the race. Cha Ching!
I have big bets on Bell, Larson and Hamlin at 3 different books. Plus a handful of other drivers
Quote: VegasriderFor folks in Nevada, Circa has not adjusted their NASCAR lines after qualifying. You can still get the two pole sitters Bell and Larson at 24:1 and 19:1 and Chase Briscoe starting 5th at 55:1. Hamlin is starting 3rd, he is the favorite and still at 15:1. 35% if the winners at Talledega has come from the first two starting positions, 55% from the first 5.
I have big bets on Bell, Larson and Hamlin at 3 different books. Plus a handful of other drivers
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That’s likely +EV for you. Good find. I just checked my Caesars ap. There are SIXTEEN racers at 20-1 or shorter odds. 6 favorites at 12-1. My guess is they are expecting crashes galore making the final outcome more about luck than skill. I could be wrong, but being a playoff race some drivers who pre playoff might have been happy with a top 5 will be taking extra chances to win, this resulting in more crashes.
Good luck!
I bet Truex at 30:1 earlier in the week. After qualifying he is starting 3rd in the 2nd row on a road course that is very difficult to pass. Books adjusted odds to 10:1. I found a books who didn’t adjust and still had him at 25:1. I bet him again. He has the best course history and the most wins at Sonoma and is a good road course driver. . He was 8:1 last year. He is having a better season this year, how do you justify 30:1? I also bet Denny Hamlin at 50:1 prequalify and he won the pole, books adjusted him down to 10:1. I also bet McDowell at 50:1 and books adjusted him down to 15:1, he finished 3rd last year. I also bet Kyle Busch pretty heavy at 10:1 prequalifying. He finished 2nd in the race but didn’t qualify well so his odds shot up to 20:1. My only prequalifying bet that went the other way.
Betting NASCAR prequalifying allows you to receive much higher odds on the drivers you think have a great chance on betting. You can also find books napping by not adjusting their odds. Or in the Darlington race last month, they had Hamlin a race favorite to finish top 10 at 7:1. He was 10:1 to win. That was an error by the book so I bet that on the app, kiosk and counter. If was finally corrected down to 2:1. That ticket was a big loser tho as he did not have a good race.