My NBA 5-point teasers

As the title states, these are just my NBA teasers.

Note 1: They are all 5-pt teasers, unless stated otherwise.
Note 2: All amounts are in units
Note 3: Teaser odds: 2-team @ +105, 3-team @ +200, 4-team @ +340
Note 4: Unless otherwise stated, assume it is their next game to play (for any games that are not completed)

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Starting bank; 40,000

Bets that are partially complete:
1) 3-team teaser
800 on: Heat -1.5 / Suns -5.5 / Timberwolves +12.0 (Heat and Suns completed and won against the teased spread)

2a) 3-team teaser
Total of 640 (160 x 4 bets) on: 76ers -2.0 / Warriors -2.0 / Heat -2.5 / Timberwolves +12.0 (76ers and Warriors completed and won against the teased spread)

2b) 4-team teaser
240 on: same teams as "2a)" above,


Bets on games that have not started at the time of this post (both are 3-team teasers):
i) 800 on: Heat -2.0 / Timberwolves +12.0 / Suns -4.5

ii) 800 on: Heat -2.5 / Grizzlies -1.5 / Suns -4.5

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Other info:

My first "betting limit test teasers" all won, but I am not going to count them as part of this thread's official results (if you are interested in what they were, see below)

A combo of 2 and 3-team teasers on: Heat -1.5 / Suns -5.5 / Bulls +15.5

Result Summary:

P(L) = Profit (Loss)

Starting balance: 40,000
Turnover: 3280
P(L): (2800)
Closing balance: 37,200

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New bet(s):

800 to win 1600 on the Bucks -5.0 / Timberwolves +7.0 / Jazz -1.0

Result Summary:

P(L) = Profit (Loss)

Starting balance: 40,000
Turnover: 4,080
P(L): (3,600)
Closing balance: 36,400

The teaser in my previous post lost^^^ after the first leg.

^^^: I just had another look at the terms and conditions for teasers' and they state, if a teaser is reduced to one selection, then the teaser will be treated as a single and paid out at the fixed odds.

Note: I think most US style teasers' would still have a chance of a "push" if you tie on all other plays (eg Tie-Tie-Lose, would = "bet is void" / money back )

720*** to win 1440 on the Nuggets +7.5 / Raptors +8.0 / Celtics +9.0

***: Even though the "teams that I picked" are based on real bets, they may not correspond to my "real bank roll / real bet amounts", as my regular NBA playoffs bets are not included in any balance figure in this thread (in other words I am trying to simulate what someone would/should bet "if they were only betting on these teasers).

Result Summary:

P(L) = Profit (Loss)

Starting balance: 40,000
Turnover: 4,800
P(L): (2,160)
Closing balance: 37,840

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Won 1440 from the teaser mentioned in my previous post (this is included in the above "Result Summary")

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New bet(s):

1,750*** to win 5,950*** on the: Nuggets +9.5 / Hawks +7.0 / Pelicans +7.5 /
Celtics +7.0 / 76ers -3.0 / Jazz +8.5 / Grizzlies -2.0

***: 35 bets x 50 units per bet (so these figures are the "max loss" and "max win" amounts)

Note : All bets above are "4-teams teasers", so the odds are +340 for all of them

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Reminder of how I am doing these bets:

. I don't have an opinion about the teams I am betting on (or betting against).
. Using a site (mainly Pinnacle) to get a "rough idea of who to back" (eg current odds, shifts / line movements, etc)
. Not "crossing or touching a tie", see teaser section in the link here for more details (this is the reason why I am only teasing underdogs and / or favorites better than -5.5, for these 5-pt teasers).

Quote: ksdjdj

(snip): Nuggets +9.5 / Hawks +7.0 / Pelicans +7.5 /
Celtics +7.0 / 76ers -3.0 / Jazz +8.5 / Grizzlies -2.0
(snip)
. Using a site (mainly Pinnacle) to get a "rough idea of who to back" (eg current odds, shifts / line movements, etc)
(snip)
link to original post

The bets still have to win, but just by going by the "current Pinnacle odds", I think most of the lines shifted in my favor (see below):

Note 1: Pinnacle uses -105 / -105, as their average lines for the NBA.
Note 2: For any lines that were not close to -105 / -105 with pinnacle, I had to guess what the line would be to convert it to a "50/50 line" ( -105 / -105 line).
Note 3: These shifts are still subject to change, since most games haven't started yet.


Hawks went from +2 to about +1.4 (odds -107 @ +1.5, atm) - so I got about the equivalent of about a 5.6 pt teaser.

Pelicans went from +2.5 to about +2.25 ( odds -112 @ +2.5, atm) - so I got about the equivalent of about a 5.25 pt teaser.

Celtics went from +2.0 to about +1.0 (odds -106 @ +1.0, atm) - so I got about the equivalent of about a 6.0 pt teaser.

76ers went from -8 to about -7.25 (odds -110 @ -7.0, atm) - so I got about the equivalent of about a 4.25 pt teaser.

Jazz went from +3.5 to about +3 (odds -105 @ +3.0, atm) - so I got about the equivalent of about a 5.5 pt teaser.

Grizzlies went from -7 to about -6.5 (odds -106 @ -6.5, atm) - so I got about the equivalent of about a 4.5 pt teaser.

Average teaser shift (for games not yet completed) = ((5.6 +5.25 + 6.0 + 4.25 +5.5 +4.5)/6 ) - 5 = 5.1833... - 5 = +0.1833 average improvement (per game)

So in other words, my teasers' went from a 5-pt teaser, to the equivalent of a 5.1833... pt-teaser, since they improved by an average of
about 0.1833 per team, at this point in time.

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Extra info:
I probably won't be posting this analysis for most or all of my future NBA teasers.

Result Summary:

P(L) = Profit (Loss)

Starting balance: 40,000
Turnover: 6,550
P(L): (3,760)
Closing balance: 36,240

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Lost 1,600*** from the last teaser mentioned (this is included in the above "Result Summary")

***: One leg was a push, so I got paid for a 3 Team teaser (for the only paying combination).

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The teaser below will not be included in the above results, because some bets have already completed:

Bulls +17.5 (won) / Warriors -3.5 (won) / Raptors +6.5 / Pelicans +6.5 / Mavericks / +6.0 / Timberwolves +6.0

Note: Bet would have been listed as something like "15 x 120 unit bets on each 4 Teams Teaser, @ odds of +340 for each potential winning combination " (if I had mentioned the bets in time).

Result Summary:

P(L) = Profit (Loss)

Starting balance: 40,000
Turnover: 6,550
P(L): (3,760)
Closing balance: 36,240

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Lost 1,600*** from the last teaser mentioned (this is included in the above "Result Summary")

***: One leg was a push, so I got paid for a 3 Team teaser (for the only paying combination).

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The teaser below will not be included in the above results, because some bets have already completed:

Bulls +17.5 (won) / Warriors -3.5 (won) / Raptors +6.5 / Pelicans +6.5 / Mavericks +6.0 / Timberwolves +6.0

Note: Bet would have been listed as something like "15 x 120 unit bets on each 4 Teams Teaser, @ odds of +340 for each potential winning combination " (if I had mentioned the bets in time).

Interesting. I’m not sure the extra fifth of a point you are getting will make these bets +EV.

New bet(s):

1,000*** to win 2,000*** on the: Heat -3.0 / Suns -1.0 / Celtics +8.0 /
Warriors -1.5

***: 4 bets x 250 units per bet (so these figures are the "max loss" and "max win" amounts)

Note : All bets above are "3-team teasers", so the odds are +200 for all of them

Result Summary:

Starting balance: 40,000
Turnover: 7,550
P(L): (1,760)
Closing balance: 38,240

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Won 2,000 from the last teaser mentioned (this is included in the above "Result Summary")

New bet(s):

1,500 to win 1,575 on the: Suns -1.0 / Bucks +10.5

Result Summary:

Starting balance: 40,000
Turnover: 9,050
P(L): (185)
Closing balance: 39,815

Note: I won 1,575 from the last teaser mentioned (this is included in the above "Result Summary")

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New Bet(s):

1,500 to win 1,575 on the: Celtics +7.0*** / Mavs +10.5

***: I had this a couple to a few days ago when the "50/50 line with most books" was about +2.0 for the Celtics ( I managed to get $1100 @ -1.5 for the Heat^^^).

^^^: Because this is a "teaser thread", I won't be counting this bet as part of the "Results Summary".

Starting balance: 40,000
Turnover: 10,550
P(L): (1,685)
Closing balance: 38,315

Note: I lost 1,500 from the last teaser mentioned (this is included in the above "Result Summary")

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New Bet(s):

1,500 to win 1,575 on the: Mavs (G1) +10.0 / Celtics (G2) +9.5

Note: I thought it would be easier to follow if I write G = Game (for example G2 = Game 2).

Tough Mavs line to tease there. Coming off a long series against a well rested Warriors.

I think the Warriors are better value as well, my regular bets for these games are below (they won't be counted in the results, because this is a teaser thread).

ML = Money Line

Warriors 1375 to win 1250 @ -5.0
Celtics 4400 to win 4000 @ +4.5
Celtics 1000 to win 1700 ML

Note 1: I had the Warriors because I like them, and I had the Celtics because I thought there was a good chance the line would "move in my favor"

Note 2: I plan to bring my liability back to 1000-1500 for the above Celtics bets ( I can get -154 ML and +100 @ -3.5 for the Heat, atm).

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Update (about 1545, Pac Time):

Celtics / Heat Game:
Heat 1520 to win 1000 ML
Heat 2500 to win 3000 @ -4.5

Reminder: Normally I don't hedge these kinds of bets, but for the Celtics / Heat game I "over-betted" the Celtics on purpose, so that I could "back the other team at better odds later".

Starting balance: 40,000
Turnover: 12,050
P(L): (3,185)
Closing balance: 36,815

Note: I lost 1,500 from the last teaser mentioned (this is included in the above "Result Summary")

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New Bet(s):

1,500 to win 1,575 on the: Celtics (G2) +8.5 / Warriors (G2) -1.5

Starting balance: 40,000
Turnover: 13,550
P(L): (1,610)
Closing balance: 38,390

Note: I won 1,575 from the last teaser mentioned (this is included in the above "Result Summary")

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New Bet(s):

1,500 to win 1,575 on the: Celtics (G3) -1.0 / Warriors (G3) +7.0

Starting balance: 40,000
Turnover: 15,050
P(L): (3,110)
Closing balance: 36,890

Note: I lost 1,500 from the last teaser mentioned (this is included in the above "Result Summary")

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New Bet(s):

1,500 to win 1,575 on the: Warriors (G3) +8.0 / Heat (G4) +12.0

Starting balance: 40,000
Turnover: 16,550
P(L): (4,610)
Closing balance: 35,390

Note: I lost 1,500 from the last teaser mentioned (this is included in the above "Result Summary")

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New Bet(s):

1,400 to win 1,470 on the: Warriors (G4) +6.0 / Heat (G5) +6.5

I just found out that I can get the same points and odds for WNBA teaser's.
IMO teasing WNBA is better value^^^ because I think each point is "worth a bit more", what do you think?

^^^: Reminder, 5-Pt teaser for: 2 - teams: +105, 3 - teams: +200, and 4 - teams: +340.

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Below are a mix of WNBA and NBA teaser bets:

1) "Five x $80, 4 - Team Teasers":

Warriors (G4) +6.0 / Mystics -3.5 / Sun -3.5 / Sky -8.5 / Liberty +11.0

Max Loss: $400 and Max Win: $1,360

2) "Ten x $160, 3 - Team Teasers":

Warriors (G4) +6.0 / Mystics -3.5 / Sun -3.5 / Sky -8.5 / Liberty +11.0

Max Loss: $1,600 and Max Win: $3,200

Starting balance: 40,000
Turnover: 19,950
P(L): (8,010)
Closing balance: 31,990

Note: All my teaser bets lost today , so (this is included in the above "Result Summary")

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New Bet(s):

800 to win 1,600 on the: Heat (G5) +6.5 / Warriors (G5) -2.5 / Sparks (WNBA) +7.5

Starting balance: 40,000
Turnover: 20,750
P(L): (8,810)
Closing balance: 31,190

Note: My last teaser bet lost (this is included in the above "Result Summary")

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New Bet(s):

800 to win 1,600 on the: Mavs (G5) +12.5 / Sun (WNBA) -2.5 / Celtics (G6) -3.5

Starting balance: 40,000
Turnover: 21,550
P(L): (9,610)
Closing balance: 30,390

Note: My last teaser bet lost (this is included in the above "Result Summary")

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New Bet(s):

1,000 to win 1,050 on the: Celtics (G1) +8.5 / Sun (WNBA) +10.0

Starting balance: 40,000
Turnover: 22,550
P(L): (8,560)
Closing balance: 31,440

Note: My last teaser bet won (this is included in the above "Result Summary")

This won't count towards the figures in this thread because most of the games are at the half way mark, but I have the following teasers

5 x 200 4 - Team Teasers (max loss 1000 vs max profit +3,400)

10 x 200 3 - Team Teasers (max loss 2000 vs max profit +4,000)

WNBA: Sun +8.5, Wings +13.5, Mercury +7.5, Mystics +11.0
NBA: Celtics +10

Break-down of most possible results***:

All Teaser's win: +7,400
One Teaser loses... : +280
Two Teasers lose... : -2,400
All other results: -3,000

***: Mystics losing by exactly 11 and / or Celtics losing by 10 points are not included in the above break-down.


Edit at about 1745, Pac Time: see underline above.

Edit at about 2030, Pac Time: see strike-through and bold above.

New Bet(s):

1) 1,400 to win 1,470 on the: Warriors (G3) +8.5 / Storm (WNBA) -2.5

2) 500 to win 1,000 on the: Warriors (G3) +8.5 / Storm (WNBA) -2.5 / Lynx (WNBA) +7.5

Starting balance: 40,000
Turnover: 24,450
P(L): (10,460)
Closing balance: 29,540

Note: My last teaser bet(s) lost (this is included in the above "Result Summary")

New Bet(s): "4 x 400 3 - Team Teasers" (max loss 1,600 vs max profit +3,200) on the:
Warriors (G4) +9.0 / Sun (WNBA) -0.5^^^ / Fever (WNBA) +9.0 / Wings (WNBA) +8.0.

^^^: Normally I don't like teasing favorites if they go to -0.5 (or more) after being teased, but I think the Sun should be between -6.0 to -6.5 (could be wrong, but that is the way I think the line will move).

Reminder: I generally try to not have an opinion about the teams in this thread.

Starting balance: 40,000
Turnover: 26,050
P(L): (12,060)
Closing balance: 27,940

Note: My last teaser bet(s) lost (this is included in the above "Result Summary").

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New Bet(s): 1,200 to win1,260 on the Sparks (WNBA) +12.5*** / Celtics (G5) +8.5

***: Game already in progress (currently half-time) and Sparks are down 17 : (