NBA Cash Out

I was wondering if my working out is sound, because in my opinion an online bookmaker gives me a "relatively +EV cash out value" for my sports bets when the team is "unlikely to win" (see scenario below)

Scenario:

In game 1 of the Pelicans / Suns series of the playoffs, I had a bet of 14,167 units @ $5.25 (+425) on the Pelicans and managed to cash out 2,188 units, when the Pelicans where down by 19 points (at half time).
This resulted in a guaranteed loss of 84.55..% of my initial bet.
But according to sites I trust, the "fair odds" for the Pelicans was $100 (+9,900) and using this I estimated that the "fair EV" was -94.75%
Going by these figures I saved about 10.2% when compared to my expected loss.
(see working out below)

Working out:

My estimate of what the cash out value should be (using "live odds") =
("Pre-Game Bet" x "Pre-Game odds") / "live odds" = (14,167 x 5.25) / 100 = 743.7675

Then I used the following formula below, to get what I thought the "fair value" was:

"fair value" = ("what I think the cash out value should be" - "Pre-Game Bet") / "Pre-Game Bet" =
(743.7675 - 14,167) / 14,167 = -94.75%

I then used the formula below to work out my "% value of cashing out".

"% value of cashing out" = "Actual Loss" / "Pre-Game Bet" = (2,188 - 14,167) / 14,167 = -84.55...%

Lastly, I used the formula below to work out an estimated "EV of the actual loss, relative to the "fair value"

"EV of the actual loss, relative to the "fair value" " = -84.55% - (-94.75%) = -84.55% + 94.75% = 10.2%

Therefore, on average I will save 10.2%, when compared to my expected loss for this scenario.

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Again, is my working out sound?

Are there any improvements you would suggest / things you would do differently^^^ ?

^^^: Try to steer clear of "joke statements" like "I would not have bet on the Pelicans in the first place", and similar comments (if possible).

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Spelling not checked very carefully

Since I like to have as much "accurate information as possible", I was wondering if anyone knows if the site below is good (I only just found it).

http://stats.inpredictable.com/nba/wpBox.php?season=2021&month=04&date=2022-04-17&gid=0042100141&pregm=odds

Note 1: According to the above link, the estimated chance for the Pelicans to win the game was ~1.4% from the start of the 3rd quarter.

Note 2: Make sure the "Pre Game Odds" box is ticked, otherwise it will assume both the teams are of "equal quality" (in other words, it will use ~6.3% as the estimate for the Pelicans to win the game, from the start of the 3rd quarter, if you leave the box "un-ticked").

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Update (about 420 am, Pac Time):

Even if the above site is "more accurate" at estimating the chance of my bet winning, I will still save about 8.1% in EV by "cashing out" when compared to my estimated expected loss for the scenario in the OP.

Does your formula take into account in game injuries, ejections, or significant foul trouble? I think the books underestimate the importance of the two losses. I bet heavily on the 76ers after the Raptors major injury. Cha Ching! The Raptors were hanging around but they were getting in more and more foul trouble. Cha Ching!

Funny story…. I had a bet on one of the college basketball games and my money line wager was down 25 points sometime in the second half…. I cashed out for $1, I think it was a $100 bet?, and…. The team came back to tie but thank God lost….
I think I have only cashed out a few bets, but I should do more thoughtful analysis on doing so.

"... in game Injuries, ejections and foul trouble? "

For cash out analysis I usually discount in game injuries*** etc, because I think that the cash out value is significantly higher or lower than what I think those factors are worth.

***: At least for the sports-books I bet with, cashing out is usually a "bad value bet", sometimes as low as -12% EV (relative to the current / live odds).


"I think I have only cashed out a few bets, but I should do more thoughtful analysis on doing so."

Definitely worth looking at, before I found the site in my previous post, I mainly used "betfair^^^ live odds" for in game estimates, because they are quite often close to 100% markets (before any commissions are charged, at least)
Example: for the game mentioned in the OP, they had Pelicans @ $100 and Suns @ $1.01 = ~100% (when I cashed out my bet at half time).

^^^: If you decide to use betfair for this, you need an account with them (because betfair only works well when you are logged in).

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Other stuff:

I have started betting NBA teaser's again because:
a) A site I use offers the best odds around for 5-pt NBA teaser's (at least out of the sites I can bet with).
b) I found out that they will let me on for at least $800 per bet now (in the past I could only get on for $200 per bet).

Side Note: I am going to list my NBA teaser bets in a new thread (if interested, see thread titled "My NBA 5-point teasers")

Quote: SOOPOO

Does your formula take into account in game injuries, ejections, or significant foul trouble? I think the books underestimate the importance of the two losses. I bet heavily on the 76ers after the Raptors major injury. Cha Ching! The Raptors were hanging around but they were getting in more and more foul trouble. Cha Ching!

Funny story…. I had a bet on one of the college basketball games and my money line wager was down 25 points sometime in the second half…. I cashed out for $1, I think it was a $100 bet?, and…. The team came back to tie but thank God lost….
I think I have only cashed out a few bets, but I should do more thoughtful analysis on doing so.
link to original post

I didn't want to start a new thread for "NHL Cash out", but you can obviously apply "cash out" to other sports as well (see NHL Scenario below)

NHL Scenario: I had a $400 bet on Avalanche @ $1.35 (about -286) today and at the end of the 2nd period I decided to cash out, because I thought the "cash out value on offer was more than what I estimated it to be" .

Estimated "fair odds at the end of 2nd period" : between $5.35 and $6.00 (or +435 and +500) for Avalanche to win.

Cash out received: $104.

(i) Estimated "true cash out value" (if $5.35 is closer to the "true game odds") = $100.93...
(i) Average saving / "advantage of cashing out" about 0.77% , compared to letting the bet stand (if this estimate was closer to correct).

(ii) Estimated "true cash out value" (if $6.00 is closer to the "true game odds") = $90.00
(ii) Average saving / "advantage of cashing out" about 3.5% , compared to letting the bet stand (if this estimate was closer to correct).

Note: Instead of using "betfair live odds" I use "retail bookmaker's live odds" to work it out for the NHL (IMO, betfair is good / has more accurate live odds for the NBA, but the quality of the live odds drops for the NHL).

NHL Cash out, ctd:
(edit: new or changed text in bold)
Even though the examples in my last couple of posts (or last few posts?) have shown "good value cash outs", most cash outs are a "sucker move" (see test case example below):

Example: Before the Red Wings / Panthers game started, I had $100 bet on the Panthers @ $1.19 (-526) just to see what the live odds vs cash out values would be.

When the score was 1-3, at the end of the 1st period, the best live odds out of the three sites that I used, were:

Red Wings: $16.5 (+1550)
Panthers: $1.06 (-1666)

The cash out value on offer was: $106.41
My estimated value for the bet was: ~$111.82

Since the estimated value was greater than the cash out value, I decided to let the bet stand***

***: On average I would be ~5.4% better off letting the bet stand when compared to cashing out early (if the live odds I used were "close to what the estimated true odds" should have been).

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Even before I did this test bet, I thought that would be the case^^^ (but I wanted to use a "real example, rather than a "hypothetical" one),

^^^; Possibly has something to do with things like: "Risk aversion vs Risk taking" psychology, amongst other factors (see example below)

example : If the "average person" has a bet that will "almost certainly" lose $1000, then they probably won't see that there is "relatively positive value" in "cashing out" / getting back $100 (or 10% of the bet).

Other people on this site may be able to explain this and other possible reasons (better than me).

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Update (end of 2nd period):

When the score was 2-4, at the end of the 2nd period, the best live odds out of the three sites that I used, were:

Red Wings: $18 (+1700)
Panthers: $1.03 (-3333)

The cash out value on offer was: $108.50
My estimated value for the bet was: ~$112.56

Again, since the estimated value was greater than the cash out value, I decided to let the bet stand###.

###: On average I would be ~4.06% better off letting the bet stand when compared to cashing out early (if the live odds I used were "close to what the estimated true odds" should have been).

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(Strike through for this part, after seeing the next post)Even though no one pointed it out, I obviously meant 1st period, when I said "1st quarter" earlier in this post, as Ice hockey is the "newest sport" that I bet on (should now be correct, at the time of this edit: 1750, Pac time)

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(Hopefully my last update/edit for this post, about 1810, Pac Time):

When I say things like "4.06% better" and "5.4% better", these are the values when compared to the initial bet (most people probably realized this).

Quote: vegas

Quote: ksdjdj

NHL Cash out, ctd:
On average, cash outs are a "sucker move" (see test case example below):



When the score was 1-3, at the end of the 1st quarter, the best live odds out of the three sites that I used, were:



You been watching too much football! *L*
link to original post

Thank you, I saw the "quarter / period" error, just before i read your post.
Yes, I mainly watch football and basketball (roughly equal parts enjoyment and for betting purposes)
I am relatively new to ice hockey ( I mainly watch it for betting purposes).

This will probably be my last post to this thread, unless someone asks me something, because I think I have shown enough examples of "good value" and "bad value" - "live game cash outs".