SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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March 29th, 2022 at 4:03:50 PM permalink
If you have access to multiple sports books you will have many opportunities to line shop for the extra half point, and sometimes a full point. To make the question simple, assume you have a 4 point NBA favorite, but get 4.5 points, how much does that cut into the house edge, assuming you have to bet 11 to win 10?

For over under I have found numerous additional full points available. Same type question…. If the over/under is 210.5, how much does an extra point cut into the house edge assuming 11 to win 10?

Using the many offers (free bets, profit boosts, loss rebate, etc..) even without the extra point or half point there are + EV opportunities. I’m wondering how much sweeter these opportunities actually are.
kuma
kuma
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March 31st, 2022 at 12:48:44 PM permalink
You are very close to break-even with a half-point on spreads and a full-point on totals. You have an edge with a full-point on sides and 1.5 on totals.

(This is assuming the line you are comparing to represents the true likelihood of outcome -- that the -110/-110 line is accurate.)
TomG
TomG
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April 14th, 2022 at 9:52:53 AM permalink
With a 4.54% house edge against all resolved bets when taking +4 in the NBA, taking +4.5 at -110 drops the house edge to about 0.4%. But if both -4 and +4.5 are available, taking +4 is going to be worse than a 4.5% house edge.

With an NBA total of 210.5 and a 4.54% house edge, either under 211.5 or over 209.5 at -110 is a very slight player edge (about 0.2%). But again, if either 211' or 209' are available, it is highly doubtful there is an exactly 50% chance of going over or under 210'. Now if both are available, fire away.

I am sure there are guys with even better push charts than what I use.
billryan
billryan 
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April 14th, 2022 at 9:53:57 AM permalink
Quote: TomG

With a 4.54% house edge against all resolved bets when taking +4 in the NBA, taking +4.5 at -110 drops the house edge to about 0.4%. But if both -4 and +4.5 are available, taking +4 is going to be worse than a 4.5% house edge.

With an NBA total of 210.5 and a 4.54% house edge, either under 211.5 or over 209.5 at -110 is a very slight player edge (about 0.2%). But again, if either 211' or 209' are available, it is highly doubtful there is an exactly 50% chance of going over or under 210'. Now if both are available, fire away.

I am sure there are guys with even better push charts than what I use.
link to original post



Do you make your own charts?
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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April 14th, 2022 at 10:31:44 AM permalink
Thanks kuma and TomG. I think, for me, I get an even higher edge because I get points I can use for free bets, or profit boosts, etc...for each bet I make. So if I can get two opposite bets both at +100 I make a little... not much, but not nothing.
Yesterday/today I got Hawks -1.5 and Cavs +3. But I never made the second bet on the Cavs! The (foolish) gambler in me just can't bet on the Cavs....... So I'm only in on the Hawks side.
Yesterday I had an 3 full points on an over/under... but wasn't even close to a middle.....
TomG
TomG
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April 14th, 2022 at 11:10:49 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Do you make your own charts?



Sort of. For this stuff, I base it on whatever pinnacle (and a few other places) let players buy and sell points for.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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April 14th, 2022 at 5:24:49 PM permalink
I think I had a better post nearly complete, when I accidentally closed the page.

Anyway, I mainly use pinnacle data as well, because it is great for helping with working out estimated chances (amongst other things).

Also, according to the info in the "old " Margin of Victory (MoV) .... table in this link, it is probably better to buy / or "get points", off spreads between +1.5 and +10, and -10.5 and -2 , then it is outside those numbers***

***: The average chance of landing on those numbers is somewhere between 5.5% and 6% per MoV (where as the average chance of landing on a number between 11 and 20 is about 3% per MoV).

Note: Reminder this is from "old" data.

----
Lastly, this thread got me interested at looking at NBA teasers again, and I found that some teasers are probably better^^^ than getting -110 (and maybe even -105) for "normal spread bets".

^^^: Below are the best odds that I can get for 5-pt NBA teasers.

2- Team: +105 , 3-Team: +200 , and 4-Team: +340

2- Team teaser has about a 49.14% chance of winning
3- Team teaser has about a 34.45% chance of winning
4- Team teaser has about a 24.15% chance of winning
Runlikegod777
Runlikegod777
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April 15th, 2022 at 3:51:43 AM permalink
where do you bet to get those teaser payouts?
Romes
Romes
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April 15th, 2022 at 11:22:36 PM permalink
I was surprised to not find a chart like this already on WOO. This seems right up Mike's alley. Tons of numbers to crunch, not readily available online, will be different work/results for each and every sport, I'm sure would drive more traffic since sports betting is the "hot" thing and only going to grow for at least a few years, and the pro's pro sports bettor doesn't really want this chart out there, but the info is "kind of" public knowledge already and both pro's and bookmakers have it already so really only the public is the ones left out of the loop.

Mike, should I hold off on doing this? =D

I've been meaning to look into it myself / search the sports section for an old thread that hopefully had a chart. It shouldn't be that hard to reverse engineer the numbers to get the correlated values, but it sure is a bit a grunt work it seems.

Another thing, doesn't the value of 1/2 pt or 1 pt change pretty drastically pending the original spread? i.e. 1/2 pt is worth a lot more if the line is -2 and you can get -1.5 rather than -7 and you can get -6.5 (basketball). Similar to football where the blowout easy example would be getting 7 vs 6.5 and not having to pay the juice (on slow moving books or something).

So the value of 1/2 points/etc changes... thus you'd need a chart that basically has 1/2 pt for 0-10, 1 pt for 0-10, 1.5 pts for 0-10, etc, etc, etc... for each different sport.

I'm sure there's a lot of calculators out there, but the first one from google seems decent: https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-calculators/half-point-calculator/
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
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