beat the NFL spread

____________


as you can see from the image, Mr. Wizard documented about 2,100 games for road dogs and found them to be profitable by 2.57%

of course, that's not a high %______ not really anything to get excited about

however, in the image you can also see that the away pick was profitable by 13.25%_________but only 59 games were documented

even though it was only 59 games it led me to believe that if you limited your bets to games where the road dog got only 4 or fewer points the % might be healthier


so, I used the data from covers.com to calculate how this idea would do
I calculated every single game from the 2020 season where the road dog got 4 or fewer points

the results are as follows:


𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐨𝐚𝐝 𝐝𝐨𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐠𝐨𝐭 𝟒 𝐨𝐫 𝐟𝐞𝐰𝐞𝐫 𝐩𝐨𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟎 𝐛𝐞𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐝 𝟑𝟗 𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝟔𝟓 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐬 𝐠𝐨𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝟑𝟗-𝟐𝟔 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐚 𝟔𝟎% 𝐰𝐢𝐧 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐠𝐞

𝐚𝐧 𝐑.𝐎.𝐈. 𝐨𝐟 𝟏𝟒.𝟓𝟓%


anybody that wants to double check my figures can do so at covers.com

when this season (2021) is over I will update this post with the results

I am not doing playoff games because of my personal belief that they carry more unpredictability







.

_________


2019 NFL regular season__________road dogs who got 4 points or fewer


41-30-4_____________57.7% winners________not considering pushes_____________10.15% R.O.I.___________not considering pushes




.

If you take the home dog against a division rival, they are 68% ATS. Of course the only game that applied this weekend were the Bears. But you couldn't play them because Aaron Rodgers "Owns Their Ass" and is 22-5 lifetime against them.

__________


the road dogs who got 4 points or fewer for this season - 2021/2022 - had a very good year

I used the most common line from vegasinsider.com on the morning the day of the game



they went 34-21__________61.8% winners______________17.98 % R.O.I.


the 3 years combined_____________114-77________59.68 % winners__________13.93% R.O.I.

.
𝘱𝘶𝘴𝘩𝘦𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘳𝘦𝘥


.

___________


first - I have not done a detailed study of this but I have observed this many times in many different sports and I believe it to be true

and I believe it happens most often with a strong fave - when the betting opens a better deal can be had on the fave and a better deal can be had on the dog close to game time

of course, someone betting very early will have less info - it's a tradeoff - but I believe a great many times the additional info that can be had by waiting until close to gametime is not all that significant

also, if there is significant info that favors a team, it has just as much of a chance to favor the fave as it does to favor the dog

so, therefore - any info coming out later than the opening line can be considered a zero sum thing in the long run

this refers to the game of Sunday Dec. 5 2021 - Colts vs. Oilers

in this game the Colts ended up as a 9.5 or 10 point fave - but as you can see in the link - when PointsBet opened up it's betting on Sunday Nov. 28 at 8:34 a.m. they were only a 7 point fave

yet another useful strategy would be to try and capture a middle. bet the fave at -7 on the opening line and the dog at +10 on the line near closing

f the fave wins by 8 or 9 both bets would win - if the fave pushes on -7 the dog would win at +10 - if the dog pushes at +10 the fave would win at -7 - otherwise there would be a loss of 10% - one side winning and one side losing


obviously - many will not want to bet that early - others may appreciate the better deal - which is of course not guaranteed but is nonetheless very common



https://www.covers.com/sport/football/nfl/linemovement/ind-at-hou/244401


.

Not a sports bettor but I'm intrigued and therefore have a couple of really naive questions....

Quote: lilredrooster

as you can see from the image, Mr. Wizard documented about 2,100 games for road dogs and found them to be profitable by 2.57%

Not familiar with the term "road dogs" but, if I had to, I'm guessing its when the away team is the underdog. Is that correct?

Quote: lilredrooster

𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐨𝐚𝐝 𝐝𝐨𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐠𝐨𝐭 𝟒 𝐨𝐫 𝐟𝐞𝐰𝐞𝐫 𝐩𝐨𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟎

Just to clarify, I'm assume you're referring to situations where the point spread is 4 or less.

Last question: do you know of a decent source for free historical data that includes not only the scores but also what odds the sports books were offering?
.
link to original post

Quote: TumblingBones

Not a sports bettor but I'm intrigued and therefore have a couple of really naive questions....

Quote: lilredrooster

as you can see from the image, Mr. Wizard documented about 2,100 games for road dogs and found them to be profitable by 2.57%

Not familiar with the term "road dogs" but, if I had to, I'm guessing its when the away team is the underdog. Is that correct?

Quote: lilredrooster

𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐨𝐚𝐝 𝐝𝐨𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐠𝐨𝐭 𝟒 𝐨𝐫 𝐟𝐞𝐰𝐞𝐫 𝐩𝐨𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟎 Just to clarify, I'm assume you're referring to situations where the point spread is 4 or less.

Last question: do you know of a decent source for free historical data that includes not only the scores but also what odds the sports books were offering?

.
link to original post

link to original post

yes, a road dog is the away underdog - maybe I should have stated it that way

also, I should have stated that I have only tracked the regular season - not the playoffs - and I would guess that things such as this might be very different in the playoffs

yes, the situation that I have tracked and has been significantly profitable is when the point spread is 4 or less for the away underdog and the bet is on the away underdog

also, this upcoming season for the first time I will be adding any away picks (a pick is when the spread is zero) to my tracking

the best source I know of is linked - not all of it is free


https://killersports.com/



.

Quote: lilredrooster

___________



if the fave wins by 8 or 9 both bets would win - if the fave pushes on -7 the dog would win at +10 - if the dog pushes at +10 the fave would win at -7 - otherwise there would be a loss of [10%] - one side winning and one side losing

link to original post

correction - too late to edit

the actual loss would be 4.5 % of all the money wagered - if one side wins and one side loses and equal amounts are bet on each side


.

Quote: lilredrooster

__________

the 3 years combined_____________114-77________59.68 % winners__________13.93% R.O.I.

.
𝘱𝘶𝘴𝘩𝘦𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘳𝘦𝘥


link to original post

I believe that there is an excellent chance that the NFL regular season away underdogs who got 4 points or less will be profitable by a solid margin for the 4th straight season

this season for the first time I will include any away picks in my tracking


.

Quote: lilredrooster

I believe that there is an excellent chance that the NFL regular season away underdogs who got 4 points or less will be profitable by a solid margin for the 4th straight season


link to original post

and they were profitable for the 4th year in a row - but only by a tiny margin - they went 45-40 winning 52.9%_____________kinna disappointing actually

they are still very solid for the 4 years combined:


159-117_________57.6% winners



pushes not considered



.