In The Sportsbetting News Today

Instead of new threads for stories that are interesting but do not warrant a thread. Inspired by "In the News Today" threads.

BetMGM bettor who missed on 16-team parlay still won big

I did not know Nevada prohibited buyouts. By the numbers it looks like the buyout was fair in relation to if he had tried to do a straight hedge. It is doubtful he could have gotten enough money down in time assuming he had the cash.

MGM will get their money out many times over in people making large parlay bets. Every penny they gave the guy will come back to them dressed up as a nickel.

Here's a quick event last night. I had no opinion on Marshall at Appalachian State. App State was -7. One offshore was offering no juice at -7, so I took a stab at a -7 and +9 (-130). As mentioned elsewhere, I shop 'til I drop.

So when App State has the ball at their own 30 with under three minutes left, leading 31-30, a score wins both for me. App State breaks a run. At first I couldn't tell if guys were going to allow him to score, but a safety pushes the back out of bounds after a 40-yard run to the Marshall 30. After looking at the replay once, I decided they really weren't trying to let him score; it was just well-blocked. I could be wrong and the safety didn't get the message.

Marshall takes their final timeout. Under two minutes. App State runs a similar play. This time the Marshall guys are trying to let him score. The back breaks it from the Marshall 30, is in the clear with nobody around, and takes a sliding knee at the four-yard-line. LOL. Oh well.

I call it the "Penn State Rule." I am a PSU grad, and PSU blew the Indiana game last year when the back was told to not score from the two and halfway forgot to take a knee and defenders pulled him into the end zone for a TD with a minute left. Indiana then went the length of the field, scored a TD, and went on to win the game.

So no middle for me.

I guess I ain't MDawg. Go ahead, call it "trolling." I dare you.

In the first forty-five years that I watched football, I think saw one team intentionally allow the other team to score. In that case, it had nothing to do with the game score, but trying to get a running back a chance at 1,000 yards. and the coach was taken over the coals for it. Then it became an accepted practice and players are chastised for actually scoring. I can only imagine Dick Butkus, Alex Karras, or even Lawrence Taylor reaction to letting a team score.

Dick Butkus said he never set out to deliberately hurt anyone, unless it was important. Like a regular season game or something.

Quote: billryan

In the first forty-five years that I watched football, I think saw one team intentionally allow the other team to score. In that case, it had nothing to do with the game score, but trying to get a running back a chance at 1,000 yards. and the coach was taken over the coals for it. Then it became an accepted practice and players are chastised for actually scoring. I can only imagine Dick Butkus, Alex Karras, or even Lawrence Taylor reaction to letting a team score.

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You and I must be the same age or thereabouts. I remember that. Coach got hell for it. Announcers were taken aback, or so they said.

I lost a college wager about 20 years ago when I had a +6 and the defending team was down one and allowed about a 20-yard gimme TD run with under a minute left and no timeouts, so they could get the ball back and try to tie it with a TD and two-point conversion. It was BYU and Air Force, and I don't remember which side I had or who got the run, but I lost, and it was a big wager for me.

My 89 year young friend had won 5 out of 6 on a parlay. I think it was a Monday night game where they were driving for a TD late in the game. But the opponent was out of timeouts. So they took a knee 3 times to run out the clock. As a result, they won the game but didnt cover the points. The running back was running in for a TD and then dropped down.

He was so excited. I give up quickly trying to explain to him he'd lost. Why should I be the bad guy?

Man...was he whizzed off when they wouldn''t cash him out. 😔

Quote: moses

My 89 year young friend had won 5 out of 6 on a parlay.

If I ran a sportsbook I would consider "parlay insurance" where you could get 5/6 and get paid but a lesser payout. The math would need to work but the marketing I think would sell.

We tried to explain taking the other side to guarantee his profit. Still, I hope to be as sharp as him at 89. It seems he is often 4 out of 5 or 5 out of 6.

Quote: AZDuffman

If I ran a sportsbook I would consider "parlay insurance" where you could get 5/6 and get paid but a lesser payout. The math would need to work but the marketing I think would sell.

Isn't this already available almost everywhere? Just put six bets on a ticket and round robin them by 5s. Small payout if five winners and much bigger payout if there are six.

Quote: TomG

Isn't this already available almost everywhere? Just put six bets on a ticket and round robin them by 5s. Small payout if five winners and much bigger payout if there are six.

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I do not know that play, can you explain, por favor?

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: TomG

Isn't this already available almost everywhere? Just put six bets on a ticket and round robin them by 5s. Small payout if five winners and much bigger payout if there are six.

I do not know that play, can you explain, por favor?

Pretty much exactly as I already said: put six bets on a ticket. If five of them win, get back a little; if six of them win, get back a lot. If they are all -110 lines and all six win, it pays back about 24.33 to 1. If five win, it pays back something like 3.33 to 1. Can be done with any number of bets over 3, with many different payout options, all based on odds bet and risk assumed. I'm sure an online search could provide better a lot more details.

Quote: TomG

Pretty much exactly as I already said: put six bets on a ticket. If five of them win, get back a little; if six of them win, get back a lot. If they are all -110 lines and all six win, it pays back about 24.33 to 1. If five win, it pays back something like 3.33 to 1. Can be done with any number of bets over 3, with many different payout options, all based on odds bet and risk assumed. I'm sure an online search could provide better a lot more details.

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Hard to believe I have not seen or heard of such a thing. I gotta check this out.

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: TomG

Pretty much exactly as I already said: put six bets on a ticket. If five of them win, get back a little; if six of them win, get back a lot. If they are all -110 lines and all six win, it pays back about 24.33 to 1. If five win, it pays back something like 3.33 to 1. Can be done with any number of bets over 3, with many different payout options, all based on odds bet and risk assumed. I'm sure an online search could provide better a lot more details.

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Hard to believe I have not seen or heard of such a thing. I gotta check this out.

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In other words, instead of making a 6 team parlay, you take the 6 teams and make six 5 team parlays out of them, one for each possible combination.

Quote: unJon

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: TomG

Pretty much exactly as I already said: put six bets on a ticket. If five of them win, get back a little; if six of them win, get back a lot. If they are all -110 lines and all six win, it pays back about 24.33 to 1. If five win, it pays back something like 3.33 to 1. Can be done with any number of bets over 3, with many different payout options, all based on odds bet and risk assumed. I'm sure an online search could provide better a lot more details.

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Hard to believe I have not seen or heard of such a thing. I gotta check this out.

link to original post

In other words, instead of making a 6 team parlay, you take the 6 teams and make six 5 team parlays out of them, one for each possible combination.

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Oh, someone should have just said it that way in the first place lol.

I have already been doing forms of this in the first place. Thank you for showing I am the degenerate sports better I thought I was....

What's more important to me is that, JUVENTUS striker Cristiano Ronaldo has fallen to 50 million, that's how much he cost back at MU. Juventus striker Cristiano Ronaldo has fallen to 50 million euros, according to updated data The 36-year-old striker is leading the Serie A goalscoring race this season, but this did not help him avoid a drop in demand in the transfer market. Two years ago, the price for Ronaldo was 100 million euros. And we are still wondering where the country's budget has gone.

This is not quite "news" but does not need a thread and does not fit General Sports Talk.

Has Wizard ever done an analysis of betting either side of a particular line?

Was listening to the Guessing Lines podcast and the guy who ran the book said 2.5 is an interesting line as it is a great one to take the underdog on. 2.5 clearly indicates fairly evenly matched teams and probably gives bookmakers headaches. But does any particular number shout "TAKE THE DOG" or "TAKE THE CHALK" mathematically?