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redietz
redietz
Joined: Jun 5, 2019
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September 13th, 2021 at 8:53:07 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

redietz,

Thank you for your insightful post on parlays. I don’t know why you won’t similarly recognize the good points made by TomG. Walking into a sportsbook to bet parlays is bad because it’s low probability this particular sportsbook will have three good numbers. Makes sense. But walking into a sportsbook to bet anything, without shopping lines, seems equally bad.

In my experience, Tom is dead on with respect to straight bets moving numbers well before a parlay would. And that can be useful.

Also no one has mentioned “open parlays.” See a good line, bet it. Also bet it an an “open parlay.” Many sites will let the open legs stay open for a long enough time that you can add other good numbers when you find them. Sure, you COULD just bet a higher amount of money on straight bets on the good numbers. But that’s not always possible for various reasons (betting limits on site, etc.).

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    Actually, this is why I made the reference in the opening post to "most brick-and-mortar" casinos. I was making a distinction between brick-and-mortar and offshore, which are more amenable to having the possibility of "open parlays." Unless you have a special relationship with brick-and-mortar (highly unlikely), you are pinned to a place and time. Offshore, some shops allow open parlays and open teasers.

    Previously, one could save open parlays and open teasers in perpetuity at some offshore shops. That has scaled back significantly, such that some that were previously "open in perpetuity" are now putting Monday night limits or 30-day limits on open parlays and teasers. I have one place that still allows open-ness for years if one wants. But two others have put expirations on them.

    Note to TomG -- if you think I don't understand arbitrage and middles and am arguing against them, you are on serious drugs. But your "I found a +150 and a -140 simultaneously" happens once in a blue moon these days, and usually on some low-limit prop where you can get $500 to $1000 down, so you're not really making much of anything. About five years ago, I won the "Race to the Super Bowl" contest at an offshore and picked up 25K in Super Bowl wagers as a result. Being determined to maximize the bets, I went to Las Vegas so as to utilize all available numbers while also shopping offshore and set up the 25K in wagers on trying to middle props or take advantage of the occasional fleeting prop arbitrage.

    I almost went friggin' blind before it was over, doing this for days before the SB. There were a couple of arbitrage bets, but we're talking 1K limits on most. I middled one bet, the Over/Under for a punter's longest punt. I kid you not. The limit on that was $500.

    To actually make any real money with arbitrage in 2021, you'd need 50K or more in each offshore you use and six digits in carrying around cash. And the opportunities are fleeting. If you don't time everything precisely so you can do it on a moment's notice, you're wasting your time and money. And can you imagine trying to get even 10K down on a prop or halftime either offshore or brick-and-mortar on a moment's notice, with the clock on your arbitrage ticking?

    Not gonna happen. The books will quicksand you (slow you down) just for fun.

    Now, having said all that, am I still the guy who will bet it if he happens to see a simultaneous arbitrage with a $500 limit for some Monday night prop? Yes I am. I do it on the principle of taking down the lunch money and demonstrating I can do it. I have no illusions; I'm making lunch money.
    "You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
    moses
    moses
    Joined: Sep 23, 2013
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    September 13th, 2021 at 11:00:12 AM permalink
    ReDietz: My cousin loves to bet college football. He does pretty good. My understanding is he reads top picks from a few handicappers in Vegas. How would he follow your picks or sign up?
    MDawg
    MDawg
    Joined: Sep 27, 2018
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    September 13th, 2021 at 11:26:03 AM permalink
    REDietz: what was your take on the under for the Giants game yesterday?

    On the win (3.5) for Green Bay?

    The under was 41.5 and the score ended at 41, so it was a winner. Green Bay obviously lost.

    Did you have picks posted in advance for either of these wagers?
    I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
    Mission146
    Mission146
    Joined: May 15, 2012
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    September 13th, 2021 at 11:29:02 AM permalink
    Why don't you guys play the Picks Game?

    MDawg, the amount of money involved is obviously trivial for you, based on your reports. Less money will change hands at the end of the game than you have reported betting on individual hands, but it's fun and you certainly post frequently enough that I don't think you would forget to make picks.

    If you were to be Suspended, for any reason, I would PM you an E-Mail address and your Picks would still count. You can hop in for Week 2, but Week 1 would be your Skip Week.
    https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
    TDVegas
    TDVegas 
    Joined: Oct 30, 2018
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    September 13th, 2021 at 11:57:06 AM permalink
    Quote: Mission146

    Why don't you guys play the Picks Game?


    My guess is fear of looking like a “commoner”.

    Much respect to those who talk the talk and walk the walk….good or bad results.

    No so much just talk the talk.
    MDawg
    MDawg
    Joined: Sep 27, 2018
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    September 13th, 2021 at 12:02:30 PM permalink
    As I've stated, "I know nothing" about sports betting. All I could do is talk to family members or friends who are into it (and not many of my family or friends are into it at all), and echo their picks, and what fun would that be?

    I had a friend who used to send me horse race picks every few days in Vegas and somehow this guy knew what was up and I'd cash out at least a grand ahead every time he made the picks for me (betting small), but he's disappeared. I had only some idea what the bets even meant, and they were generally complicated boxed this or that, but the guy knew what he was doing, somehow.
    I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
    Mission146
    Mission146
    Joined: May 15, 2012
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    September 13th, 2021 at 12:02:49 PM permalink
    Quote: TDVegas

    My guess is fear of looking like a “commoner”.

    Much respect to those who talk the talk and walk the walk….good or bad results.

    No so much just talk the talk.

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    It would be nice if people didn't worry so much about that sort of thing.

    Even the best sports bettors have the occasional terrible season, I would think. At least some of them. This isn't even a sports betting based website, we just have a sub-forum for it.

    I'll tell you what I think is the most laughable, if anything at all: turning a nose up at the EV of the game! My guaranteed contribution$ to the game, as of right now, are more than the sum of the Entry Fees. People can have a little fun and do so currently at 200%+ EV...all players assumed equal for the purposes of the statement.
    https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
    Mission146
    Mission146
    Joined: May 15, 2012
    • Threads: 132
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    September 13th, 2021 at 12:05:29 PM permalink
    Quote: MDawg

    As I've stated, "I know nothing" about sports betting. All I could do is talk to family members who are into it, and echo their picks, and what fun would that be?

    I had a friend who used to send me horse race picks every few days in Vegas and somehow this guy knew what was up and I'd cash out at least a grand ahead every time he made the picks for me (betting small), but he's disappeared.

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    It wouldn't be fun, which is why you should just make your own Picks. Even though some players have demonstrated that they are consistently strong in this contest (I'm consistently slightly above average, myself, but not good) the rules are such that someone just picking randomly has a shot.

    Besides that, anyone can play the Line Movements game, which has proven to be a solid strategy. I usually just straight up make the Picks I like, but I do have a little formula that I do if I can't come up with five picks in a given week.
    https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
    moses
    moses
    Joined: Sep 23, 2013
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    September 13th, 2021 at 12:20:32 PM permalink
    Quote: TDVegas

    My guess is fear of looking like a “commoner”.

    Much respect to those who talk the talk and walk the walk….good or bad results.

    No so much just talk the talk.

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    The locker room version is can't walk and chew gum at the same time. Step, step. stop. chew. repeat.😎
    moses
    moses
    Joined: Sep 23, 2013
    • Threads: 8
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    September 13th, 2021 at 12:26:16 PM permalink
    Quote: Mission146

    Quote: TDVegas

    My guess is fear of looking like a “commoner”.

    Much respect to those who talk the talk and walk the walk….good or bad results.

    No so much just talk the talk.

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    It would be nice if people didn't worry so much about that sort of thing.
    .
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    So lemme get this straight. You are worried about why people worry so much? 😉 🤔Just kidding Miss.146

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