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AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 227
  • Posts: 12469
September 29th, 2021 at 4:44:01 AM permalink
JAX at CIN CIN -7.5 (-113)
TEN at JETS TEN -7.5 (-112)
KC at PHI KC -7 (-110)
CAR at DAL CAR +5 (-112)
NYG at NO NO -8.5 (-110)
CLE at MIN CLE -2 (-112)
DET at CHI CHI -3 (-106)
HOU at BUF BUF -16.5 (-110)
IND at MIA MIA -2 (-109)
WAS at ATL ATL +1.5 (-110)
SEA at SF SEA +3 (-117)
AZ at RAMS RAMS -4.5 (-112)
PIT at GB PIT +6.5 (-109)
BAL at DEN DEN -0.5 (-110)
TB at NE NE +7 (-115)
LV at LAC LAC -4 (-108)

WAGERED: $775

Thoughts are two. First, I can never remember seeing a 1/2 point line in my lifetime. I guess they are just not wanting a push if there is a tie as why not make it a pick-em which probably will draw a little more excitement and action. Second, that is a lot of points to lay on the Bills. On one hand it will probably end like 31-10, OTOH, that is a lot of points to lay on the Bills. Might depend on how much the Texans load up on at the Anchor Bar.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 227
  • Posts: 12469
October 5th, 2021 at 4:21:26 AM permalink
JAX at CIN CIN -7.5 (-113) LOSS
TEN at JETS TEN -7.5 (-112) LOSS
KC at PHI KC -7 (-110) WIN
CAR at DAL CAR +5 (-112) LOSS
NYG at NO NO -8.5 (-110) LOSS
CLE at MIN CLE -2 (-112) WIN
DET at CHI CHI -3 (-106) WIN
HOU at BUF BUF -16.5 (-110) WIN
IND at MIA MIA -2 (-109) LOSS
WAS at ATL ATL +1.5 (-110) LOSS
SEA at SF SEA +3 (-117) WIN
AZ at RAMS RAMS -4.5 (-112) LOSS
PIT at GB PIT +6.5 (-109) LOSS
BAL at DEN DEN -0.5 (-110) LOSS
TB at NE NE +7 (-115) WIN
LV at LAC LAC -4 (-108) WIN



RAW RESULTS: 7-9
SEASON RAW RESULT: 26-33-4

WAGERED: $1775
WAGERED SEASON: $6626

WIN: $700
WIN SEASON: $2600

LOSS: $997
LOSS SEASON: $4464


NET: ($297)
NET SEASON: ($1864)

REVERSE NET: $122
REVERSE NET SEASON: ($20)


Almost an exact 50/50 result. I have taken out the vig section as calculating it is getting confused, if I am bored I may figure it for the season at the end of the season. A casual look at this week shows we paid extra juice twice as much as we got a discount. Maybe someone in Vegas can chime in on if extra juice was a thing before sports gambling came to the other states. I think at least part of it is the books thinking "new" bettors will not notice. We probably are getting "new" bettors now, though the day it opened they were asking down the line if people needed help with betting and nobody did, everyone was lined up like we had been doing it all our life.

22% of the season gone and we see that taking either side of the coins is a loss, showing Rosenthal was right about not betting too many games. Running so much money thru the window might get you some comps that the reverse net of -$20 could be overcome.

Tomorrow's coin picks will be posted late as I have surgery in the morning. Not looking forward to.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 227
  • Posts: 12469
October 6th, 2021 at 2:29:00 PM permalink
WEEK 5

RAMS at SEA SEA +2.5 (-110)
JETS at ALT (LONDON) JETS +3.5 (-112)
DET at MIN MIN -8.5 (-110)
NO at WFT WFT +1.5 (-109) HAIL TO THE FOOTBALL TEAM, HAIL VICTORY............
NE at HOU NE -8.5 (-110)
MIA at TB TB -10 (-107)
GB at CIN CIN +3(-109)
DEN at PIT PIT -1 (-110) line moving in PIT favor since Monday
PHI at CAR CAR -4 (-108)
TEN at JAX TEN (-109)
CLE at LAC CLE +2.5 (-110)
CHI at LV CHI +5.5 (-108)
SF at AZ, SF +5 (-108)
GIANTS at DAL DAL
BUF at KC KC -2.5 (-115)
IND at BAL IND +7 (-110)

Still in recovery of sorts so no big commentary on the coin choices. Be well.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 227
  • Posts: 12469
October 12th, 2021 at 4:44:43 AM permalink
WEEK 5

RAMS at SEA SEA +2.5 (-110) LOSS
JETS at ALT (LONDON) JETS +3.5 (-112) LOSS
DET at MIN MIN -8.5 (-110) LOSS
NO at WFT WFT +1.5 (-109) LOSS
NE at HOU NE -8.5 (-110) LOSS
MIA at TB TB -10 (-107) WIN
GB at CIN CIN +3(-109) PUSH
DEN at PIT PIT -1 (-110) WIN
PHI at CAR CAR -4 (-108) LOSS
TEN at JAX TEN (-109) WIN
CLE at LAC CLE +2.5 (-110) LOSS
CHI at LV CHI +5.5 (-108) WIN
SF at AZ, SF +5 (-108) LOSS
GIANTS at DAL DAL WIN
BUF at KC KC -2.5 (-115) LOSS
IND at BAL IND +7 (-110) WIN



RAW RESULTS: 6-9-1
SEASON RAW RESULT: 32-42-4

WAGERED: $1646
WAGERED SEASON: $8272

WIN: $600
WIN SEASON: $3200

LOSS: $992
LOSS SEASON: $5456


NET: ($392)
NET SEASON: ($2256)

REVERSE NET: $246
REVERSE NET SEASON: $266


I am seriously almost ready to just used the reverse of the first 5 picks on the challenge. One thing to note it the reverse net has gone positive, first of either side to do so. For those wannabe hedge fund managers it is a 2.7% ROI. Another way of looking at it is that the book has taken all that action and at most lost less than 3%! Now you know why Rosenthal had that great house on the golf course.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 227
  • Posts: 12469
October 14th, 2021 at 5:06:03 AM permalink
WEEK 6

TB at PHI PHI +7 (-114)
MIA at JAX MIA -3 (-115)
KC at WFT WFT +6.5 (-110)
RAMS at GIANTS GIANTS +9.5 (-112)
HOU at IND IND-10 (-107)
CIN at DET DET+3.5 (-110)
GB at CHI CHI+4.5 (-108)
LAC at BAL LAC+2.5 (-105)
MIN at CAR MIN-1 (-109)
AZ at CLE CLE-3 (-117)
LV at DEN DEN-3.5 (-109)
DAL at NE NE+3.5 (-108)
SEA at PIT PIT-5 (-112)
BUF at TEN TEN +5.5 (-109)

Sorry for a day late, vacation this week has days fading into each other.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 227
  • Posts: 12469
October 19th, 2021 at 4:56:34 AM permalink
WEEK 6

TB at PHI PHI +7 (-114) WIN
MIA at JAX MIA -3 (-115) LOSS
KC at WFT WFT +6.5 (-110) LOSS
RAMS at GIANTS GIANTS +9.5 (-112) LOSS
HOU at IND IND-10 (-107) WIN
CIN at DET DET+3.5 (-110) LOSS
GB at CHI CHI+4.5 (-108) LOSS
LAC at BAL LAC+2.5 (-105) LOSS
MIN at CAR MIN-1 (-109) WIN
AZ at CLE CLE-3 (-117) LOSS
LV at DEN DEN-3.5 (-109) LOSS
DAL at NE NE+3.5 (-108) LOSS
SEA at PIT PIT-5 (-112) LOSS
BUF at TEN TEN +5.5 (-109) WIN


RAW RESULTS: 4-10
SEASON RAW RESULT: 36-52-4

WAGERED: $1545
WAGERED SEASON: $9817

WIN: $400
WIN SEASON: $3600

LOSS: $1106
LOSS SEASON: $6562


NET: ($706)
NET SEASON: ($962)

REVERSE NET: $561
REVERSE NET SEASON: $827


Coins had another terrible week. Reverse though and they would be a nice little score.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others

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