Quote:superbriIf there are 16 games and I wanted to make sure I had picked the winning team in all 16 games, how many permutations are there ?

2^16

Quote:superbriIf there are 16 games and I wanted to make sure I had picked the winning team in all 16 games, how many permutations are there ?

65,536

Quote:superbriIf there are 16 games and I wanted to make sure I had picked the winning team in all 16 games, how many permutations are there ?

Except there are seventeen games, no?

Quote:billryanDoes that take into account possible ties?

No, but it also doesn't take into account the fundamental fact that many games should have an individual more than 50% to pick the winner, if that is the only goal. Unless this is a pick against the spread type of thing. I'm assuming this is for some kind of kiosk promotion, but maybe not.

Quote:gordonm888I wonder what the odds of picking 16 NFL games correctly is if you picked the favored team in all the games. There's always a few sad sack teams, etc.

Midpoint of NFL odds are pretty fair. So you could multiply the midpoint money lines on favs for a decent estimate.

Quote:gordonm888I wonder what the odds of picking 16 NFL games correctly is if you picked the favored team in all the games. There's always a few sad sack teams, etc.

Assuming 57.5% *** average winning chance for the home-team, the (fair) odds for picking the fav. would be about 7000/1 in 16 games.

***: "...in the NFL, home teams usually win in between 55 and 60 percent of the time..." (According to the first link below)

https://www.lineups.com/articles/how-important-is-home-field-advantage-in-the-nfl/

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2021/1/6/22216167/nfl-playoffs-home-field-advantage-covid-19-restrictions (here is another link i thought was interesting, even though I didn't use it for the above answer)

It seems to me that Week 1 games result in more upsets than in the subsequent weeks of the regular season. I think some teams are just not as prepared for their opener as others are, regardless of talent. Also, there are obviously no tapes of previous games, which would help to level the playing field for coordinators trying to come up with a game plan.Quote:gordonm888I wonder what the odds of picking 16 NFL games correctly is if you picked the favored team in all the games. There's always a few sad sack teams, etc.

Heck, the Jaguars won their Week 1 game last year.

Disclaimer: This is just casual observation, I have no numbers to back this up.