redietz
redietz
Joined: Jun 5, 2019
  • Threads: 48
  • Posts: 737
June 27th, 2021 at 8:19:53 AM permalink
I just wanted to make a quick note of the fact that the intro warning to the "Betting Systems" section isn't generally applicable to sports betting. I'm certainly no trendsvestite, but there have often been formalized and sometimes relatively simple "systems" that have worked from time to time. I usually avoid such things, as numbers tend to quickly adjust, but I must admit that there have been times when these formal systems have been quite effective.

For example, about 20 years ago, one could bet the NBA Overs of teams playing each other that had been eliminated from playoff contention up until four or five games were left on the schedule. This system worked quite well for about a decade. It circulated among certain CEO type factions who sports gambled back around 2000. I used it for about six years, and won every year but one, when it went 11-12-1 or something like that.

More recently, about five years ago, some ethnic specific programmers beat college basketball totals badly for two years. I have no idea what parameters they used, but they fired away at a lot of games, including games where you couldn't necessarily get a lot down (as an example, CET has used tier type of bracketing to limit exposure on un-public games). I was shocked at the number of games they played, but they did quite well. So well that most Las Vegas sports books began delaying their opening hoops numbers for an hour or two while the programmers whacked the offshores and the non-delayed LV shops.

One thing the above systems had in common was that you had to be "in the know" and whack these games at first available number, as the numbers moved quite severely. If you tried to use numbers near game time, forget about it.

I never know whether to categorize sports gambling as an "AP play." What the folks above were doing certainly falls under the aegis of formal betting systems. My point is that the caveats in the "Betting Systems" section wouldn't be applicable to sports betting.
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TomG
TomG
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
  • Threads: 15
  • Posts: 2339
June 27th, 2021 at 9:41:35 AM permalink
Quote: redietz

I never know whether to categorize sports gambling as an "AP play."



If the odds offered in relation to the probabilities means there is and Advantage for the Player, than the person making those bets is an Advantage Player.

In my mind, the idea that a "system" must be worthless isn't right. In blackjack, why is changing bet sizes based on a "martingale" strategy a system, but changing bet sizes based on a "hi-lo" strategy not? If my system is to only play video poker with optimal strategy on the best paytables, it is a winning system. Likewise, as you pointed out, there are definitely systems that can be used to find profitable bets in sports.

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