Clayton
Clayton
Joined: Jul 11, 2010
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December 1st, 2010 at 9:41:01 PM permalink
I'm a casual sports fan and an even more casual NFL fan, however I enjoy gambling.

What I'm wondering is, as a casual fan who isn't going to spend a lot of time researching various players or game conditions (I'm not opposed to crunching numbers and looking at stats) what's the best way for me to participate in sports betting, specifically with the NFL?

In other words, other than just randomly guessing, what's something a little extra I could do that wouldn't require me to ramp up on a lot of knowledge of the sport and current teams players.

Thanks in advance!
Wizard
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Wizard
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December 1st, 2010 at 9:45:24 PM permalink
Three words: Bet on Underdogs.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Clayton
Clayton
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December 1st, 2010 at 9:56:40 PM permalink
I had read that on wizard of odds and was going to try that out this weekend. Thanks.
Wizard
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Wizard
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December 1st, 2010 at 10:01:35 PM permalink
Quote: Clayton

I had read that on wizard of odds and was going to try that out this weekend. Thanks.



You're welcome. I do that every weekend.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Clayton
Clayton
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December 1st, 2010 at 11:24:53 PM permalink
So to be clear, I'd be picking underdogs (specifically home team dogs?) based on the spread?

So for week 13 that'd be:


Home (Dog) Away Points
Bengals Saints +7
Cardinals Rams +3.5


Is that correct?
thecesspit
thecesspit
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December 1st, 2010 at 11:39:48 PM permalink
The Lions are a +4.5 home dog and Tampa Bay are +3 home dogs.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Clayton
Clayton
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December 1st, 2010 at 11:41:29 PM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

The Lions are a +4.5 home dog and Tampa Bay are +3 home dogs.



Guess I missed those, thanks. :)
Wizard
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Wizard
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December 2nd, 2010 at 7:35:28 AM permalink
Unless a game is a dead-on pick, there will be an underdog in every game. My sports betting page shows that home underdogs do better than visiting underdogs, but the difference is not statistically significant. Between betting underdogs and shopping around for the best lines you should at least get to break even. I'm not saying this is a recipe for getting rich.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
duckston09
duckston09
Joined: Feb 13, 2011
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February 18th, 2011 at 9:55:17 AM permalink
I am new to this site and I will probably get beat up with this answer, but I want to share my experience with you. I'm like you, I don't want to get involved with researching every little detail. Tomorrow will be one month that I have been betting with an offshore bookmaker. First of all, the odds makers in las Vegas do all the hard work for you. I found a website that has team matchups. Football season is over so I play college and NBA. I match up the teams playing with teams they have already played. I make my own spread versus vegas spreads. I look for the Vegas spread to give me the answer. That dosen't mean you bet the opposite of who you like all the time, because you will come out a loser. I am retired and live off my SS. check so I bet the bare minimum. I've read where you can make a lot of money if you can win 60% of your bets. I play 10 to 15 games a day and I am over 60% winner. My problem is, could i make these picks under pressure. I would love to find someone I could give my picks to for a week just to see if I would choke. No one in my household knows I'm betting on sports. Good luck to you.
mkl654321
mkl654321
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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February 18th, 2011 at 11:17:51 AM permalink
Quote: duckston09

I am new to this site and I will probably get beat up with this answer, but I want to share my experience with you. I'm like you, I don't want to get involved with researching every little detail. Tomorrow will be one month that I have been betting with an offshore bookmaker. First of all, the odds makers in las Vegas do all the hard work for you. I found a website that has team matchups. Football season is over so I play college and NBA. I match up the teams playing with teams they have already played. I make my own spread versus vegas spreads. I look for the Vegas spread to give me the answer. That dosen't mean you bet the opposite of who you like all the time, because you will come out a loser. I am retired and live off my SS. check so I bet the bare minimum. I've read where you can make a lot of money if you can win 60% of your bets. I play 10 to 15 games a day and I am over 60% winner. My problem is, could i make these picks under pressure. I would love to find someone I could give my picks to for a week just to see if I would choke. No one in my household knows I'm betting on sports. Good luck to you.



First of all, you wouldn't make "a lot" of money, even winning at a 60% clip, unless you were betting "a lot". Second, and more important, only a very few humans now walking the earth have been able to consistently show a 60% win rate. It is far more likely that you're simply "running good" than that you are one of those few humans. In truth, a skilled handicapper would be thrilled with a 55% win rate, which would be barely enough to win, since you need to score 53% just to break even. If you are living on a fixed income, betting with ANY part of it could obviously be very dangerous. It will NOT be pleasant when the inevitable day comes when you go 1-9 or 2-13.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw

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