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Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
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onenickelmiracle
May 1st, 2021 at 5:33:38 PM permalink
Medina Spirit wins it. Another win for Baffert.
https://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=CD&raceDate=05/01/2021&cy=USA&rn=12
No joy for my horses. Best finish was 6th with Midnight Bourbon. Speed held up today.

FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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Thanks for this post from:
onenickelmiracle
May 1st, 2021 at 7:07:27 PM permalink
A nice win for me. Put $50 on him in March at 20-1. Won some other futures as well.

My most successful Derby.
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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May 1st, 2021 at 9:06:38 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

A nice win for me. Put $50 on him in March at 20-1. Won some other futures as well.

My most successful Derby.

Me too. Love it when a favorite doesn't win. Used to have a friend who I couldn't convince betting the favorite was any better than any other and it wasn't a system. He was super cheap and would bet like $2, sometimes $5 or $10 later on if he was really bold and confident. Some how I killed it betting Charlestown, Buffalo Raceway and Mountaineer a little. I know I was lucky and will not do it again, everything just turned out right for me having favorites off the board. The pick 6 at Charlestown was 8/7,8/8/3/3/3, sure seemed to be my secret, especially having the 3 towards the end. Might have even made it semi worthwhile staying home all day in bed.
I am a robot.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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May 2nd, 2021 at 2:17:10 AM permalink
......................

I like your Derby strategy ONM - exacta wheeling or boxing 7 or 8 shots with the fave out of it

I would have done that if I had thought of it - will do it next year - I think it's great with a very large field - might do it in the Breeders Cup

for very hard to predict races like the Derby sometimes the best handicapping is no handicapping at all - not saying you didn't handicap what you bet - but I wouldn't - too many unknowns - I like to handicap in a much smaller field

you learned me something




the favorite - morning line 2/1 - was cold in the betting and went off at 3/1
I believe that a fave given the cold shoulder by the bettors is one of the best indicators you can get from the tote
along with extreme bet downs
favorites that go cold like that lose very, very often



*
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
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May 2nd, 2021 at 3:09:51 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

......................

I like your Derby strategy ONM - exacta wheeling or boxing 7 or 8 shots with the fave out of it

I would have done that if I had thought of it - will do it next year - I think it's great with a very large field - might do it in the Breeders Cup

you learned me something



*

Yes it was a strategy. You guys had some good insight which I remembered and there was some sentiment on the feed I watched which believed #14 was a false favorite. I did notice only 2 of ten or more TVG guys picked #14 as well. I didn't put much time into it thinking and some of the extra horses besides 7,8,9 were out of fear and almost just random. However I will add, my brother asked me for his risk free bet and somehow he got stuck on 14. I didn't want to sell it, but I thought, it's as good as the 7 and 8 and I could be wrong. I really regretted it as the discussion went on. #8 Medina spirit, attracted me and repelled me for the same reason, just because one of my exes lived in Medina. It drew me to it and not enough, so shame. Wasn't betting the favorite, so it didn't matter.

Actually was thinking 789 tribox, but decided to be more conservative with an EX with more horses. Senior Investment taught me that(2589 I'll never forget. Was an old important number for me). Really it's not about the large field, that's part of it, but it's more about not feeling the favorite. Bridge jumper races teach you that too, favorite out, big pays. I really feel I'm only good at handicapping the handicappers, looking for the subliminals, and trying to break the truth codes. I guess with horses, I'm playing poker and looking at convictions and deep hidden fears, to say it another way(See I said "I guess with horses" That's an accidental tell about lack of conviction, but not always, context matters). Pay attention to what people seem to say by accident.

Or maybe I'm just a lucky idiot like the hair dresser and the lotto player, but I doubt it. I cannot do anything looking at muted screens, I need to hear someone talking or I need to read opinions. When I'm just staring at screens, I cannot do anything and to bet is random then and pointless. Maybe a live race, I can observe something in a horse, but it's really hard to see something and really know if you're seeing something or looking to see something.

Just remembered, I do like to do 2 stupid things and 1 smart thing or 2 smart things and 2 stupid things generally when betting at times, but not to an exact ratio, just the sentiment is important. You can think of it as 2 unpredictable things and 1 predictable thing. I might do 3 predictable things but not 3 unpredictable things because that's just thoughtless and random. In this example 3 unpredictable things could possibly make sense if nothing seems predictable or imaginable, but that's a tough sell. At that point should you even bet?

This is very likely true.
I am a robot.
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
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May 2nd, 2021 at 8:07:23 AM permalink
Congrats to Fins and onm, well done with your wins. :)

Yesterday Soup and Sandwich was eased during the race (finishing last). He is fine today, just had a breathing issue (flipped palate).
----------

The Preakness is gonna be good. Plenty of solid runners skipped the Derby and the top 4 finishers were close across the line.
May 15, 2021 @ ~ 5:45pm ET
2021 Preakness Stakes - Grade 1 - Pimlico Race Course Baltimore, Maryland, U.S.
Distance 1 3⁄16 mi
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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May 2nd, 2021 at 10:18:13 AM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

Congrats to Fins and onm, well done with your wins. :)

Yesterday Soup and Sandwich was eased during the race (finishing last). He is fine today, just had a breathing issue (flipped palate).
----------

The Preakness is gonna be good. Plenty of solid runners skipped the Derby and the top 4 finishers were close across the line.
May 15, 2021 @ ~ 5:45pm ET
2021 Preakness Stakes - Grade 1 - Pimlico Race Course Baltimore, Maryland, U.S.
Distance 1 3⁄16 mi



Medina will be around 8-1 you think?
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
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May 2nd, 2021 at 11:34:53 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Medina will be around 8-1 you think?


Assuming he runs, my early guess is he will be the favorite, something closer to 2/1.
But we don't have much info yet (horses/posts etc), so it is difficult to predict.
Last edited by: Keeneone on May 2, 2021
MoneyK1ng
MoneyK1ng
Joined: May 2, 2021
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onenickelmiracle
May 2nd, 2021 at 3:47:11 PM permalink
oh nice
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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May 3rd, 2021 at 2:33:30 AM permalink
.................


Medina did honest fractions
but nobody except the longshot Soup and Sandwich came out early to duel with him
and Soup and Sandwich wasn't that close and Velazquez surely knew he was an unworthy shot and kept him running evenly

that's definitely not going to happen in the Preakness
somebody, maybe a rabbit from a trainer with more than one entry is going to get in his face early - for sure

I'm predicting that he will have a much tougher race in the Preakness and that he will not prevail



*
Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 3, 2021
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe

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