Which is more likely?

Quote: billryan

If he doesn't have to worry about someone hitting it, a hundred strikes would be pretty easy.
Does the FG attempts include a snap and a holder? That complicates things.

Quote: Wizard

Somebody asked me what is more likely:

A) Justin Verlander throwing 100 straight strikes.
B) Steph Curry making 100 straight free throws.
C) Justin Tucker hitting 100 straight 40-yard field goal attempts.

Here is some data to help.

In 2019 Verlander threw 3448 pitches, of which 2361 were strikes (68.5%) (source).

In the 2019/20 season, Curry had a free throw percentage of 93.1% (source).

Statistics for Tucker 2012-2020 (source).
30 - 39 yards: 86 out of 89 made (96.63%)
40 - 49 yards: 87 out of 96 made (90.63%)

If we simply take the average of the two averages, we get 93.63%. However, I tend to think the actual percentage is probably a bit higher. The 40-49 yard range will include some in the high 40's, where the chances of success start dropping off fast. Here are some statistics of average success rate by distance.

Yards	Percent Made
20	99.51%
21	97.67%
22	98.02%
23	98.19%
24	94.62%
25	99.23%
26	96.88%
27	97.00%
28	95.00%
29	94.36%
30	93.07%
31	94.49%
32	94.62%
33	94.10%
34	86.04%
35	90.55%
36	87.76%
37	84.75%
38	83.29%
39	85.77%
40	85.21%
41	83.51%
42	81.65%
43	77.04%
44	80.31%
45	78.82%
46	73.78%
47	75.09%
48	68.60%
49	71.22%
50	71.05%
51	67.10%
52	59.92%
53	69.16%
54	61.27%
55	53.57%
56	59.32%
57	54.05%
58	36.67%
59	55.56%
60	30.00%
61	31.25%
62	28.57%
63	25.00%
64	33.33%
65	0.00%
66	0.00%
67	0.00%
68	0.00%
69	0.00%
70	0.00%
71	0.00%

Source for table.

Doing parabolic regression, I find the probability of making a 40-yard field goal for all kickers to 85.83%. The probability of success for all field goals in the 30 to 39 range is 89.32%. So, the 40-yard success percentage is 96% that of the 30-39 percenage.

Applying that 96% to Tucker, we get 96.63% * 96% = 92.86%.

So, I'm going with Tucker, but it's close. A difference of 0.24%.

The following table shows the probability of a single success and 100, which takes the single trial probability to the100th power.

Player	Prob. Success.	Prob. 100 successes
Justin Verlander	68.50%	0.000000
Steph Curry	93.10%	0.000785
Justin Tucker	92.86%	0.000604

Verlander's strike percentage doesn't seem to be in contention, but I wonder if a strong pitcher like him deliberately throws some balls to be more unpredictable. A question I throw out to the baseball experts of the forum.

The question for the poll is who would you bet on?

Quote: Keeneone

Seems he is talking about real live in game action.

Quote: Wizard

Here is some discussion of this at Barstool Sports. That doesn't say whether the contest is in real games or a demonstration. However, I assume it means in real games and no change in behavior to influence the outcome.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quote: Wizard

Here is some discussion of this at Barstool Sports. That doesn't say whether the contest is in real games or a demonstration. However, I assume it means in real games and no change in behavior to influence the outcome.

In real games? Curry. The other two have to deal with things like wind. Verlander also has to deal with who's making the call as to whether a pitch is a ball or a strike, and Tucker's success depends a lot on the player holding the ball.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quote: Wizard

Here is some discussion of this at Barstool Sports. That doesn't say whether the contest is in real games or a demonstration. However, I assume it means in real games and no change in behavior to influence the outcome.

In real games? Curry. The other two have to deal with things like wind. Verlander also has to deal with who's making the call as to whether a pitch is a ball or a strike, and Tucker's success depends a lot on the player holding the ball.

Quote: SOOPOO

All true. In a real baseball game there are probably a dozen pitches that the pitcher is not even trying to throw a strike. I would be surprised if Verlander has exceeded 25 consecutive strikes. By the way, if a batter swings and makes contact into fair territory, is that a strike even if the pitch was low and would not have been a strike even if the batter had not swung? Actually, come to think of it, that is clearly not a strike. Any ball hit into fair territory is not a strike. So for all intents and purposes, 100 will never happen.

Quote: SOOPOO

All true. In a real baseball game there are probably a dozen pitches that the pitcher is not even trying to throw a strike. I would be surprised if Verlander has exceeded 25 consecutive strikes. By the way, if a batter swings and makes contact into fair territory, is that a strike even if the pitch was low and would not have been a strike even if the batter had not swung? Actually, come to think of it, that is clearly not a strike. Any ball hit into fair territory is not a strike. So for all intents and purposes, 100 will never happen.

Quote: Keeneone

My understanding is all foul balls are technically strikes. But they do not count as a third strike to record an out. Regardless of pitch location, all balls put into play or fouled off are strikes.

Quote: SOOPOO

So you are saying if a batter hits a ball that would have been called a ball for a home run it counts as a strike? The question, as many hypotheticals, needed so much more to be specified before a reasonable discussion could take place.

Quote: Keeneone

Yes, home runs are strikes.
https://www.mlb.com/glossary/rules/strike-zone

Quote: Keeneone

Trivia question. Was this a strike?

Quote: Wizard

Based on the discussion, I think the question at hand is more reasonable if we assume the effort is under controlled demonstration conditions. No wind, no pressure, etc.. However, maybe there should be a minimum speed to the pitch. Something reasonable in MLB. This article says the average fast ball speed in MLB in 2019 was 93.1 MLB. So, perhaps, a minimum in the high 80's?

I'm hardly a baseball expert, but I've observed pitchers in the bull pen practicing and it seems they can land it in the catcher's glove every time.

Quote: Keeneone

Trivia question. Was this a strike?

Show Spoiler

No. It was a dead ball/no pitch.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_pitch
One of the most famous no pitch calls occurred when Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Randy Johnson hit a bird with a pitch.

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My money would go on S. Curry. He had a streak end @ 80 in a row this year. The NBA record is 97. Definitely doable but very difficult.
https://www.goldenstateofmind.com/2021/1/4/22212813/steph-curry-straight-free-throws-made-golden-state-warriors-michael-williams

Quote: Wizard

That is a good question! Again, I'm hardly a baseball expert, but seems the fair thing to just not count it.

Quote: Wizard

Somebody asked me what is more likely:

A) Justin Verlander throwing 100 straight strikes.
B) Steph Curry making 100 straight free throws.
C) Justin Tucker hitting 100 straight 40-yard field goal attempts.

Quote: Wizard

Based on the discussion, I think the question at hand is more reasonable if we assume the effort is under controlled demonstration conditions. No wind, no pressure, etc.. However, maybe there should be a minimum speed to the pitch. Something reasonable in MLB. This article says the average fast ball speed in MLB in 2019 was 93.1 MLB. So, perhaps, a minimum in the high 80's?