Sacke86 Joined: Aug 16, 2020
• Posts: 21
February 12th, 2021 at 7:04:08 AM permalink
Hello world! I want to adapt the classic L'abouchere for 50% winning chances for a 62.5% winning chances strategy to use this system in sports betting with 1.60 medium odds (wich is 62.5% won bets). So how much do I need to raise the bets for 62.5% winrate? For 50% It's simple because we just add the numbers from the ends like this: 10, 10, 20, 30 and we have a bet of 10 + 30 = 40. But with 62.5% winrate and a lower return (x1.6) we must raise the bet more and I don't know how to do it properly to have the same return as this would be a 50% winrate (odds 2) and a return of x2. Sorry for my bad english, this is not my native language! Thanks!
SOOPOO Joined: Aug 8, 2010
• Posts: 7967
February 12th, 2021 at 7:33:20 AM permalink
Quote: Sacke86

Hello world! I want to adapt the classic L'abouchere for 50% winning chances for a 62.5% winning chances strategy to use this system in sports betting with 1.60 medium odds (wich is 62.5% won bets). So how much do I need to raise the bets for 62.5% winrate? For 50% It's simple because we just add the numbers from the ends like this: 10, 10, 20, 30 and we have a bet of 10 + 30 = 40. But with 62.5% winrate and a lower return (x1.6) we must raise the bet more and I don't know how to do it properly to have the same return as this would be a 50% winrate (odds 2) and a return of x2. Sorry for my bad english, this is not my native language! Thanks!

Are you saying you are able to pick winners 62.5% of the time on even money bets? Or that you have to bet \$16 to win \$10 but will be successful 62.5% of the time? I think you mean the latter?
Sacke86 Joined: Aug 16, 2020
• Posts: 21
February 12th, 2021 at 7:38:49 AM permalink
I mean I bet \$10 and get \$16 because I have 1.60 odds and let's imagine that variance doesn't exist and I'm winning 62.5% of the time because 1 / 1.60 (european odds) = 0.625 => 0.625 x 100 = 62.5% winrate.
ThatDonGuy Joined: Jun 22, 2011
• Posts: 4828
Thanks for this post from: February 12th, 2021 at 7:45:01 AM permalink
I think what you have to do is, start with a normer Laboucherie, but when you lose, multiply the bet by 5/3 before writing the number down.
If it loses, then instead of adding 40 to the end of the list, add 67 (= 40 x 5/3, rounded up) to the list.
The list is now 10, 10, 20, 30, 67; your next bet is 77.
Sacke86 Joined: Aug 16, 2020
• Posts: 21
February 13th, 2021 at 7:14:19 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

I think what you have to do is, start with a normer Laboucherie, but when you lose, multiply the bet by 5/3 before writing the number down.
If it loses, then instead of adding 40 to the end of the list, add 67 (= 40 x 5/3, rounded up) to the list.
The list is now 10, 10, 20, 30, 67; your next bet is 77.

You god damn right, thanks!

I made some wrong calculations with your numbers and then I've tried with 1.50 odds and found that some number (let's say V) with wich I must multiply the numbers in the series should solve the equation V x (1.50-1) = 1 and was 2 because 2 x (1.50 - 1) = 2 x 0.5 = 1 and this equation should be valid for every odds, then I calculated V = 1 / (1.60-1) = 1 / 0.60 = 1.66. I even tested it and it works because I get the same return when I end the series of numbers, wich is 60% from the initial bet (+\$12 in this case because the original bet is \$20):

Case 1 - If I win the first bet:

10, 10 : Bet = 10 + 10 = \$20 -> Win = \$20 x 1.6 = \$32 -> Profit = \$32 - \$20 = +\$12

Case 2 - If I loose the first bet, win the second and third one:

10, 10 : Bet = 10 + 10 = \$20 -> Loose = \$20 -> Total profit: -\$20

10, 10, (10 + 10) x 1.66 : Bet = 10 + 20 x 1.66 = 10 + 33.333 = \$43.333 ->
->Win = \$43.333 x 1.6 = \$69.12 -> Total profit: \$69.333 - \$43.333 - \$20 (lost on the first bet) = +\$6

10: Bet = \$10 -> Win = \$10 x 1.6 = 16 -> Total profit: \$16 - \$10 = +\$6 (from this bet) + 6 (from the second bet above) = +12

I think the result will always be +\$12, no matter how long the series will go but I didn't tested that. I hope the case 2 it's enough :))