Jumboshrimps
Jumboshrimps
Joined: Jan 11, 2010
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January 26th, 2021 at 2:01:20 PM permalink
Today is the first I've learned about the existence of these machines, which allow betting on past horse races. I understand there is much controversy over whether these are legal (because they usually try to mimic para-mutual betting to satisfy state laws). That controversy aside, aren't these machines an AP opportunity? My understanding is that they offer past performance data, taken from the Daily Racing Form, prior to each "race." If one were to put together a database using old DRFs, wouldn't it be possible to identify the race (and its results) prior to wagering?
FinsRule
FinsRule
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January 26th, 2021 at 5:52:51 PM permalink
They donít give you enough clues to know what race you are betting on before the race.

The machines are like slot machines but less fun. Not sure how they make any money. People are desperate I guess...
DRich
DRich
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January 26th, 2021 at 5:57:57 PM permalink
I believe Fins is correct. They change the horses names and the tracks too I believe. I believe all you know is the number or horses and the odds.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
terapined
terapined
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January 26th, 2021 at 6:50:15 PM permalink
This could be a game that interests me if the house edge was slim.
Occasionally I'll play the horses but the cut the track takes from parimutuel betting is horrendous
Over 20 %
"Everybody's bragging and drinking that wine, I can tell the Queen of Diamonds by the way she shines, Come to Daddy on an inside straight, I got no chance of losing this time" -Grateful Dead- "Loser"
billryan
billryan
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Jumboshrimps
January 26th, 2021 at 7:16:48 PM permalink
When I was a young man, the Knights of Columbus used to run a quarterly Night at The Races that featured old races from Florida.
They'd makeup programs, give the horses made-up names, and assign odds to each horse. There were only a few races to randomly pick and before long we would know the results before the race, as soon as the film would start. That didn't help us as betting was closed, but then we started seeing slight differences in the film cases. One, in particular, had a small dent in it and we quickly zoned in on it. Being young and dumb, we didn't milk it and the four of us bet $20 each instead of our usual $2-$4. It was a nice payoff for a bunch of 17-18-year-olds but the next time they had it, they limited bets to $5 and were much more careful about being around the projector.
We moved on to hustling Las Vegas Night mailings for a few months until that went bad and my friend " fell down " a flight of stairs.
DRich
DRich
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January 26th, 2021 at 7:16:50 PM permalink
Quote: terapined

This could be a game that interests me if the house edge was slim.
Occasionally I'll play the horses but the cut the track takes from parimutuel betting is horrendous
Over 20 %



I think they are offering the same odds as the live racing so it is probably around 20%.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
Jumboshrimps
Jumboshrimps
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January 27th, 2021 at 5:26:49 AM permalink
Races have fingerprints. With data points like number of horses, morning line odds of each horse, and past performances, the race could be identified or the list at least substantially narrowed down, yes?
heatmap
heatmap
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Jumboshrimps
January 27th, 2021 at 5:54:59 AM permalink
Quote: Jumboshrimps

Races have fingerprints. With data points like number of horses, morning line odds of each horse, and past performances, the race could be identified or the list at least substantially narrowed down, yes?



im going to say yes with AI

the amount of hours you would have to spend logging and identifying each race and where it came from would be better spent writing the code for artificial intelligence

and there may be one guy around here who can actually help you out with that let me contact him for you and see what he says because I have also wanted to look into this and now im putting some pieces of the puzzle together.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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January 27th, 2021 at 10:36:52 AM permalink
Quote: Jumboshrimps

Races have fingerprints. With data points like number of horses, morning line odds of each horse, and past performances, the race could be identified or the list at least substantially narrowed down, yes?


Yes, but you have to take into account (a) the sheer number of races that have been held where recordings exist, especially if you include the possibility of including races not held in the USA, and (b) the possibility that some of the past performances may be incomplete, making searching that much harder.
DRich
DRich
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Jumboshrimps
January 27th, 2021 at 10:40:43 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Yes, but you have to take into account (a) the sheer number of races that have been held where recordings exist, especially if you include the possibility of including races not held in the USA, and (b) the possibility that some of the past performances may be incomplete, making searching that much harder.



You must also remember that the people making these machines have probably thought about how they could be beat. I have never played one. How long does it give you from the time it gives the horses and odds until post time? I would guess not very long.
Living longer does not always infer +EV

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