Effects of Tom Brady

I thought this was instructive last night, regarding Tom Brady. I'm in a couple of offshore contests with no-spread and totals handicapping. I had the winner of last night's game wrong. So, having taken a 3 1/2 point favorite sans spread to win the game, I was curious as to how far I would drop in the standings. I did get the total (Under) correct.

So in the contest where I was tied for eighth and it's just no-spread selections, I woke up this morning and found out I was exactly where I had been. That was really surprising to me, given that the Bears were at home.

In the contest that also uses totals, I went from tied for eighth to tied for fourth. Again, I was very surprised.

Brady bends people's minds. People just do not want to go against him. I'll dig up his lifetime point spread record as a QB later today and post it. It's monstrous, so he's had an indelible long-term psychological effect on everyone, which one should keep in mind when wading through contests. If you go against a favored Brady and lose, you will lose tremendous ground, but if you somehow win, you'll make up a lot of ground.

By the way, I saw something I have never seen before last night. Brady lost track of downs in the last minute of the game. Wow. That literally has never happened.

Yes! I had no doubt that TB12 would lead his team down the field for the game winning score last night. None. That is, until it didn't happen. I have been 'conditioned' as well!

Quote: redietz

By the way, I saw something I have never seen before last night. Brady lost track of downs in the last minute of the game. Wow. That literally has never happened.

I also can't remember him ever being hit as much as he was last night.

If he ends up doing an average job for the Bucs this year, will it be because of Father Time, the absence of Belichick, the lack of a good O-line, or a combination of all three?

I think his arm is okay. It's not what it was, but he's okay. I think shifting to warm weather extends his arm's lifespan. Those frigid NE days in December would have worked against him. The O-line is okay. He did get hit, but he wasn't really drilled by anybody. Mack was into abusing people last night, but that's not unusual.

Brady's missing his two studs. Godwin is out and Evans was Hopalong Cassidy last night. He couldn't even run by the of the game. Evans couldn't even clear openings for other receivers by getting downfield with alacrity. Had Godwin and Evans been healthy, there's no way I would have taken the Under in contests.

So if Godwin and Evans get better, I think he'll be fine. If not, things will be tough. His arm is not great, but it's still better than what Peyton Manning could do his final season.

He was really not very good at all the last 3/4ths of last year already. His "on target rate" declined considerably despite a lower average length of pass. I know some of it can be attributed to lack of weapons but for the majority of the season after the first quarter of the season last year he was in the bottom 25% in qualified QB's for all of completion percentage, yards per attempt, passer rating, and QBR. It wasn't all the lack of weapons he's just not Tom Brady anymore, but people mostly refuse to believe their eyes or the stats with him. It's possible there was some injury issue there but given the age it's not the more likely explanation. To me he also looked last year like he would be able to see the open guy downfield but would refuse to throw the ball if it meant risking stepping into a hit. Brady had a negative value last season in CPOE (completion percentage over expected based on depth of target) and was in the bottom 1/3rd of qualified QB's in EPA. So if he's not accurate anymore and doesn't have the arm strength anymore, how much value does the experience/coach on the field factor actually provide is the decamillion dollar question I guess.

Semi related, Drew Brees and Philip Rivers also look like they cannot push the ball downfield anymore. Rivers looks like he's really laboring anytime he has to throw it more than 10 yards downfield it's just over for him, a shame Luck isn't still there and healthy because Colts defense this year surprisingly looks like it might be the class of the NFL three of the four teams they've faced have had their lowest scoring output of the year against them.

After about a five year stretch of mediocre accuracy and performance not looking like the same guy or an elite quarterback anymore, Aaron Rodgers has somehow inexpicably had a sharp uptick in his accuracy and performance to this point this season. Had been basically the definition of average in EPA and CPOE over the last half decade. Rivers was also basically average in both last season. Brees led the league in CPOE last season. Jackson and Mahomes in a league of their own for EPA last season.

What you see and say is true, but it's also true that the Saints restructured their offense so that Brees won't be called upon to push the ball downfield. His arm appears shot, but he's still preternaturally accurate. Rivers is in a somewhat different boat, as last year his INT rate was the problem with the Chargers. So he's purposefully kept things under wraps, especially after throwing bad picks in that JVille loss to open the season, where they outgained JVille by 200 yards, but big INTs cost them the game. I suspect Rivers' arm is a little bit better than what we see. He's deteriorated, of course, but hard to judge how much given the play calls.

I have a rooting interest, for better or worse, in the Colts. I took them at ultra long odds before the season to win the SB. That JVille loss left me gulping for air. Their defense will handle all of the low-to-middle echelon QBs, I think. Big game this week.

Here you go, and this is why we are all conditioned to fear Tom Brady. His lifetime ATS record is roughly (depending on lines and pushes) -- drum roll please -- 185-127, not counting his 2-2-1 or 2-3 record this year.

That's why we are all brainwashed, with good reason.