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redietz
redietz
Joined: Jun 5, 2019
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January 31st, 2020 at 7:31:37 PM permalink
I've been a professional sports handicapper since 1979. My question is, "Why would anyone (without the aid of serious psychedelics) play a parlay like that?"

I wouldn't have bothered to say anything, but I am really, really surprised that there was no comment regarding how stupid this is. If you want to donate money to sports books, at least legally adopt them and claim them as a dependent on your income taxes.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
michael99000
michael99000
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January 31st, 2020 at 8:03:04 PM permalink
Quote: redietz

I've been a professional sports handicapper since 1979. My question is, "Why would anyone (without the aid of serious psychedelics) play a parlay like that?"

I wouldn't have bothered to say anything, but I am really, really surprised that there was no comment regarding how stupid this is. If you want to donate money to sports books, at least legally adopt them and claim them as a dependent on your income taxes.



Hang on while I review all the picks of yours that you posted for us to analyze prior to the games...

Oh wait, you never did that.

Iíll just continue reading that list of reputable web sites your 20 years of winning picks are documented at.
michael99000
michael99000
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January 31st, 2020 at 8:04:20 PM permalink
Quote: 7craps

no, in Nevada, I have never seen that.
after one gives the ticket writer your money, then you get the ticket
and only right then (do not walk away until you LOVE the ticket and all on it is cool to you)
can you say you disagree with something and instantly get on their sh*t list.

next in line



At the Borgata , your wager comes up on a screen prior to the ticket agent confirming it. You have to read that screen and approve of all the figures prior to the ticket being printed.
redietz
redietz
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January 31st, 2020 at 8:27:39 PM permalink
I have no idea what the above has to do with the intelligence of betting parlays unless one of two sets of criteria apply, but okay.

From roughly 1980 to 1992 I was monitored by "Tipsters or Gypsters?" The annual publication by former Seattle Times reporter Mike McCusker was also referred to as The McCusker Report. McCusker himself was the subject of a San Fran Chronicle piece circa 1990. For roughly a dozen years after that, my plays were featured in Marc Lawrence's Playbook newsletter, which was sold nationally on newsstands. And for the last 30 years, my top two plays each week have been featured in the invitation-only Wise Guys Contest (www.playbook.com//Vegas-Wise-Guys/). At a ripe young age, I was also vetted by Rick Hall and appeared in Hall Publishing's 1984 Who's Who in Sports Gambling. And Billy Walters hired me in 2002.

Other than that, yeah, no credentials whatsoever.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
Wizard
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Wizard
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Forager
January 31st, 2020 at 9:14:43 PM permalink
Quote: redietz

From roughly 1980 to 1992 I was monitored by "Tipsters or Gypsters?" T...



Hijacking, three-day suspension.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
tringlomane
tringlomane
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Chuckleberry
February 1st, 2020 at 1:17:37 AM permalink
That's evil. Now I might mess with Horseshoe Hammond's sports betting kiosk to possibly see if CET in Indiana does it the same way.

Update: I totally forgot to do this tonight and had a very frustrating gambling session instead.
unJon
unJon
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February 1st, 2020 at 5:34:26 AM permalink
Yes, most books that Iím aware of use the parlay card odds to calculate the overall odds of a multi leg parlay. Some other sites still use the better, international odds, parlay card. See this link for the differences on Vegas and Global book: https://www.vegasinsider.com/parlay-calculator/
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Wizard
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Wizard
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Chuckleberry
February 1st, 2020 at 4:31:47 PM permalink
In the interests of research, I made four similar parlay bets to the Wynn one, to see what other sports books were doing. Here they are:


$537.60 = $10*4.48*12


$372 = $10*3.1*12


$336.60 = $10*2.8*12


$240 = $10 * 2 * 12

As you can see ALL of them went by the parlay table, which in every case here paid 11 to 1 (or 12 for 1). If the calculation method were used, (21/11)^4 = 13.2833 for 1 = 12.2833 to 1. So the player is getting significantly shortchanged off the parlay table. There should be more of an outcry against them.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Ace2
Ace2
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February 1st, 2020 at 4:51:39 PM permalink
So the new strategy is to not parlay more than 3 games at -110. Which is not so hard to do since many games are at -115 or -105
Itís all about making that GTA
Wizard
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Wizard
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Chuckleberry
February 1st, 2020 at 4:58:35 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

So the new strategy is to not parlay more than 3 games at -110. Which is not so hard to do since many games are at -115 or -105



I also wouldn't parlay two. Using the calculation, it would pay (21/11)^2 = 2.6446 to 1. The standard table win is 2.6 flat. Assuming a 50% chance at each leg, the house return via the calculation is 91.12%.

Off the table it's 90%.

May not seem like much, but that's losing 1.12% in EV. A sharp bettor should fight for every 0.1%, even 0.01%.

The only safe number of -110 legs to parlay are 0, 1, and 3.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

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