When will a college athlete get caught fixing games?

With all of the new legalized sports betting, it seems inevitable that college athletes (basketball , football, etc)will put extra dollars in their pockets at some point. Whether or not they get caught is another story. What think you?

Quote: WatchMeWin

With all of the new legalized sports betting, it seems inevitable that college athletes (basketball , football, etc)will put extra dollars in their pockets at some point. Whether or not they get caught is another story. What think you?

They do now, but it will be legal in 2023.

Quote: DRich

They do now, but it will be legal in 2023.

So you are saying they know that college athletes are fixing their own games but not doing anything about it?

Quote: WatchMeWin

So you are saying they know that college athletes are fixing their own games but not doing anything about it?

No, I am saying that college athletes are putting money now in their pockets and it is against the rules. In 2023 they will be allowed to take money from sponsors.

Quote: DRich

No, I am saying that college athletes are putting money now in their pockets and it is against the rules. In 2023 they will be allowed to take money from sponsors.

He is not asking about sponsors, he is asking about point shaving.

I think it will happen but they may just freelance more less chance of a Boston College fix of the 1970s. In that fix it is impossible to say who made what.

Where smart athletes would do it is at a smaller school. Hard part is you really have to trust the others in on it, which is why fixes are hard to make work.

I've always thought the solution was to allow them to make their own money. Sell autographs. Get paid to go to parties. If some booster wants to pay them $25 an hour to watch paint dry, wgaf.

That way you don't have to worry about things like paying the girls croquette team equally.

Quote: Rigondeaux

I've always thought the solution was to allow them to make their own money. Sell autographs. Get paid to go to parties. If some booster wants to pay them $25 an hour to watch paint dry, wgaf.

That way you don't have to worry about things like paying the girls croquette team equally.

If the NCAA thinks there's any link between the booster and the school, then they GAF, as, in effect, the school is paying the player (and violating Title IX in the process) through a middleman.

As for point shaving, up through two seasons ago, the NCAA bylaws specifically mentioned it - the minimum penalty was loss of all remaining eligibility of the player starting with the game where he first shaved the points, and the school had to "vacate" all of its wins from that point forward where that athlete played (not "forfeit," mind you, as the teams that lost those games still count them as losses), plus if he was in any NCAA tournament games, the school has to give back its share of the tournament money it earned because of it, and that lasts for six years after the games are played. However, starting last season, that rule was removed, although point shaving is still considered an infraction - it's just that there's no "mandatory" penalty for it.

There are two ways I can see it happening; either someone in their last year of eligibility with no hope of any sort of basketball career (including something like youth league coaching - who would trust the guy if anybody found out?) does it for the money, or it's a repeat of Arizona State where one player did it to cover something like a gambling loss (which is another reason why you shouldn't Martingale). It will be less likely if the NCAA does allow players to be paid for licensing purposes.

Quote: WatchMeWin

With all of the new legalized sports betting, it seems inevitable that college athletes (basketball , football, etc)will put extra dollars in their pockets at some point. Whether or not they get caught is another story. What think you?

It depends on their finding a trusted confederate to place the bets and take risk that its just one player, not the whole team taking a dive. i'd watch the referees more closely than the players.

There are/were already enough places to wager, especially if you consider offshore books and even bookies. I don't think it's going to change all that much from what it is now. It's easy to get Accounts at places like 5dimes. However, to make it really worthwhile, I would assume you need to get large chunks of money down. For that to happen without getting caught, I would think they would need a third party or some type of organization.

I did notice some colleges are making policies regarding Sports Wagers.

The press release from Purdue states:

“The policy bans faculty, staff and non-athlete students across the university system from gambling on sporting events involving any Purdue teams, coaches or student-athletes. The policy was developed at the urging of some faculty members, as well as the Department of Intercollegiate Athletics, after sports betting became legal in Indiana earlier this year. The policy applies to wagers placed worldwide and online. ”https://www.legalsportsreport.com/35704/purdue-sports-betting-ban/

Alan Blinder
By Alan Blinder
Oct. 21, 2019

In Mississippi, university officials sent state gambling regulators names for a “watch list” for big bets.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/21/sports/sports-betting-purdue-villanova.html

I actually think point shaving is probably somewhat common in college. It doesn't really make sense that it wouldn't be.

You don't need some ZK-esque conspiracy that goes up to the governor's office.

You could have an uncle and his 2 kids go around and quite a lot of money down betting $500 or so a pop. As more books open, it will be very easy to do so. Most people know little to nothing about sports betting, don't know a bookie and don't really get online gambling. They could still do it today, but when the books are in your back yard, advertising on the radio it will be both easier and more tempting. Once books open in NYC, for example, I think you could easily bet at 30 different spots between NJ, PA and NY.

Many of these kids are poor. Most have no chance of going pro and plenty aren't even going to get a degree. Why not? Especially if you are just going to keep the total down, but try to win.

The one complication is making the bet a sure thing, since most people in this scenario are going to be crushed if they lose. e.g. a field goal kicker could provide a massive edge that would be great for a bigger operation, but it wouldn't be a lock.

Quote: Rigondeaux

. . . but it wouldn't be a lock.

It doesn't have to be a lock, it just has work much of the time and its 'free' money with only the remotest chance of taint. Relatives with different surnames, online accounts, some degree of 'cover' betting.

Quote: FleaStiff

It doesn't have to be a lock, it just has work much of the time and its 'free' money with only the remotest chance of taint. Relatives with different surnames, online accounts, some degree of 'cover' betting.

You are correct, it doesn't have to be a lock to be great value. However, what's some college student or independent people willing to risk on something that isn't a sure thing? But someone going to risk all their money on something that could go terribly wrong especially if gambling isn't their thing?

It seems like they would have to be willing to do this over and over for it to be worth it, or get a significant amount of money down one one shot. It would have to be considered as a long-term value and done correctly for it to last without being caught. Don't make it obvious and accumulate the money over time with good value bets.
It seems likely that if it's just someone desperate for money they are going to get caught since they're going to try to turn it into a sure thing.

Of course, there are some really dumb people out there willing to do things with a high probability to get caught for little or nothing.
I'm probably overestimating people's logic and intelligence when it comes to stuff like this.

Quote: AxelWolf

It seems like they would have to be willing to do this over and over for it to be worth it.

Yes.
Think of it as the college kid selling an option on the college kid's career as a professional athlete.

If he knows from the start he will never have one, what has he got to lose? If he knows he might be a good athlete but never a great one, he might as well start earning some money. A few games here and there wherein he holds back a bit or even gets benched are profitable opportunities, but not locks. Other players sometimes do coke before a game or get exhausted by an amiable girlfriend, his exercising restraint on his skills will blend in well. He is getting option money for a non-existent career. Only the truly stellar player has a shot at big money, the average athlete is not giving up anything of great value.

its not a lock on any one game but it is a lock on several games. Keep the money in play and over time the scheme will work. Never a huge amount of money and never a hugely embarrassing athletic performance. Just a sideline income for all that time spent practicing.

Quote: FleaStiff

It depends on their finding a trusted confederate to place the bets and take risk that its just one player, not the whole team taking a dive. i'd watch the referees more closely than the players.

It could only work with basketball. Football you would need too many people in on it, and even then it would be too hard to make it happen as too many things come into play. Basketball, OTOH, you just miss a few baskets, miss a few rebounds, make a turnover. No other sport would have the betting available.

But even in basketball you need 3-4 players to make it work. If it is only one he might get pulled as his game goes bad. The other players will pass to him less. The other players will pick up their game. Plus sometimes, the other team is just even more outmatched than the book gave them credit for.

Then you need to get the action down. In NV you could probably spread it out easy. Outside, not as much. I could hit 4 books in one day, but it would take most of the day as they are all an hour or more from each other. I probably have way more access than most people in the USA outside NV. I cannot do this online as it will draw attention. I cannot bring 3 friends and drop a dime each as that will draw attention. I cannot even bet a dime myself across the counter more than once as it draws attention.

I could easily work about 5 dimes at each book over a couple days assuming it is a mid-sized school or larger. I have to do it at the kiosks in smaller amounts. A player could not take the time to do this, and he cannot be seen wagering on a game he is involved in. Right away that is a 2 way split. Maybe I just offer him a flat rate. Then he might ask for the flat rate as a bet so he makes double if the plan works.

All the while we need to hope the books do not see this action coming in and close the game to bets.

That is where it always comes apart. Almost any player could put a few dimes down and intentionally miss free throws to net a win. But it is a big if. And that is a lot of money to the people for who it would mean life changing, at least in the short term. Some rich kid at Harvard he isn't going to risk it for that little money. So there needs to be a lot of reward and a few players in on it. But the books watch out for outlier action. Thus you need more people in more places, which draws more attention and more chances a rat in the house.

Possible, yes. Likely, less.

if you make a lot of bets is shouldn't affect your personal results

you can't know if a game being fixed will help or hurt you - sometimes it may help you - sometimes it may hurt you

it's a zero sum thing - but it definitely can affect the sport's integrity - and the public perception

but is there any integrity left anywhere in modern society? - not much





I could be wrong if fixing is more likely to happen on the fave's side
if that is the case if you're always betting the fave it could hurt you

I'm not sure about that

Quote: Rigondeaux

I actually think point shaving is probably somewhat common in college. It doesn't really make sense that it wouldn't be.

You don't need some ZK-esque conspiracy that goes up to the governor's office.

You could have an uncle and his 2 kids go around and quite a lot of money down betting $500 or so a pop. As more books open, it will be very easy to do so. Most people know little to nothing about sports betting, don't know a bookie and don't really get online gambling. They could still do it today, but when the books are in your back yard, advertising on the radio it will be both easier and more tempting. Once books open in NYC, for example, I think you could easily bet at 30 different spots between NJ, PA and NY.

Many of these kids are poor. Most have no chance of going pro and plenty aren't even going to get a degree. Why not? Especially if you are just going to keep the total down, but try to win.

The one complication is making the bet a sure thing, since most people in this scenario are going to be crushed if they lose. e.g. a field goal kicker could provide a massive edge that would be great for a bigger operation, but it wouldn't be a lock.

Well said.

Basketball would be most likely because it only takes one or two main players on a team to conspire to make it happen. But say they are favored by 15 points. They can ensure that they win the game well under the 15 points. Many of these kids do not have a future in professional basketball and come from very humble backgrounds, therefore are susceptible to the almoghty dollar.
That being said, look for a trend of underdogs to come in more than in the past.

I think a PG in basketball could keep the game under with about 95% certainty just by himself. Not only can he intentionally miss a few shots, but he can control the pace of play and run the clock down.

A QB could probably keep the game under and certainly could make sure his team loses or doesn't cover in most cases.