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MaxPen
MaxPen
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September 6th, 2019 at 5:14:23 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

1,716 entries and I'm not impressed with this at all, unless something changes.

Basically, he got a bunch of advertising and a bunch of word-of-mouth (including this thread), essentially for an interest-free loan of over 1.5 million dollars.

Personally, I'd be much more impressed if the contest had the same rules, but he had to pony up a bonus of $25-$100, per entrant, until that bonus hits a certain cap vis-a-vis number of entrants. That way, the positive equity as an amount is capped (could even be $100,000), but there would remain positive equity in the contest that would decrease on a percentage and by-person basis as more people entered.

I think he meant well, and it's always possible there wouldn't have been at least 1,500 players, just don't like the result. But, you never know, maybe he'll decide to kick in some extra to the main prize pool and/or the winner after everyone who is going to sign up has.



He has already contributed alot. He organized and paid to advertise a no vig contest. He knows his business. Never was going to be an overlay. I don't like how it was advertised on TV. It leads a person to believe there is a million dollar overlay in the first few seconds.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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September 6th, 2019 at 11:08:03 PM permalink
How does it compare to the Westgate’s Super book contest? That one seems to do well year after year despite a vig. Why is that?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
DRich
DRich
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Mission146
September 7th, 2019 at 7:07:44 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

\

I think he meant well, and it's always possible there wouldn't have been at least 1,500 players, just don't like the result. But, you never know, maybe he'll decide to kick in some extra to the main prize pool and/or the winner after everyone who is going to sign up has.



I say just enter and win the contest. At that point I don't think you would continue to worry about the lack of overlay.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
Mission146
Mission146
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September 7th, 2019 at 7:24:55 AM permalink
Quote: MaxPen

He has already contributed alot. He organized and paid to advertise a no vig contest. He knows his business. Never was going to be an overlay. I don't like how it was advertised on TV. It leads a person to believe there is a million dollar overlay in the first few seconds.



I agree he knows his business! He’s got well over a thousand people with at least $1,000 many of whom will now be visiting one of his casinos every week, and an interest free loan of well over 1.5M, all for the cost of advertising.

I agree with you about the commercial, you mentioned that earlier, also. Hard to say if anyone signed up believing there might be some sort of guaranteed overlay, but that’s on them for not reading it, if so. The main purpose of a commercial, of course, is to imply the opposite of what the little words on the bottom of the screen say. True of anything.

Anyway, I just thought it would be good for him to create a little bit of an overlay, especially given that implication.
Vultures can't be choosers.
Mission146
Mission146
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September 7th, 2019 at 7:26:59 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

I say just enter and win the contest. At that point I don't think you would continue to worry about the lack of overlay.



That would be an excellent plan, the minor problem being that I would definitely lose. There have to be some really skilled people participating, so I put my probability of winning any prize at precisely 0.00000000000000000000000000001%.
Vultures can't be choosers.
GWAE
GWAE
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Mission146
September 7th, 2019 at 9:26:49 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

That would be an excellent plan, the minor problem being that I would definitely lose. There have to be some really skilled people participating, so I put my probability of winning any prize at precisely 0.00000000000000000000000000001%.



That's why I like the idea of going in with a bunch of people. I would rather spend 100 with almost no chance of winning 100k instead if 1000 with almost no chance at a million.
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AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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September 7th, 2019 at 9:57:14 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

That's why I like the idea of going in with a bunch of people. I would rather spend 100 with almost no chance of winning 100k instead if 1000 with almost no chance at a million.

I liked it when I heard +EV/ Mike doing all the work. # howmuchcanIgetdown
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
GWAE
GWAE
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Mission146
September 8th, 2019 at 7:14:34 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I liked it when I heard +EV/ Mike doing all the work. # howmuchcanIgetdown



that is funny.

So since this appears to be dead since the games start in 2 hours I figured I would hijack this a little. Local in PA has a contest that is similar. It is $150 to enter with 150k in prizes and I believe no fees coming out. I was going to sign up but then didnt. A day later they had a BOGO free entry for 1 day but I missed it. I ended up not doing it because they allow people to enter up to 25 times. Just curious, does anyone think there is a huge disadvantage in a contest like this where you are only going to have 1 entry but others may have 10-25? That was my deciding factor to not enter. I would think if I have 1 and others even have 3 or 4 I would be at a huge disadvantage.

ETA: nevermind, I decided to sign up. 3300 people signed up, 125k to first and they are paying top 500 spots. 500k in total prizes. Cost myself a free entry by missing the bogo.
Last edited by: GWAE on Sep 8, 2019
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
Mission146
Mission146
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September 8th, 2019 at 7:40:19 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

that is funny.

So since this appears to be dead since the games start in 2 hours I figured I would hijack this a little. Local in PA has a contest that is similar. It is $150 to enter with 150k in prizes and I believe no fees coming out. I was going to sign up but then didnt. A day later they had a BOGO free entry for 1 day but I missed it. I ended up not doing it because they allow people to enter up to 25 times. Just curious, does anyone think there is a huge disadvantage in a contest like this where you are only going to have 1 entry but others may have 10-25? That was my deciding factor to not enter. I would think if I have 1 and others even have 3 or 4 I would be at a huge disadvantage.



If you assume that all of the people playing are equally good, and you also assume that all the people playing will get their Picks in for every entry, every week, then all entries have the same EV. I believe the only exception would be if one person had enough entries such as to cover all possible combinations of five games that do not have the possibility of a push. I believe that would require something like 3.5 million entries, because there are ten possibilities for each set of picks, so (10*9*8*7*6*5*4*3*2*1)= 3,628,800.
Vultures can't be choosers.
GWAE
GWAE
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Mission146
September 8th, 2019 at 8:10:26 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

If you assume that all of the people playing are equally good, and you also assume that all the people playing will get their Picks in for every entry, every week, then all entries have the same EV. I believe the only exception would be if one person had enough entries such as to cover all possible combinations of five games that do not have the possibility of a push. I believe that would require something like 3.5 million entries, because there are ten possibilities for each set of picks, so (10*9*8*7*6*5*4*3*2*1)= 3,628,800.



whelp I guess I should have read all of the rules. It is not picking against the spread. It is just straight up.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW

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