Circa NFL Million-dollar handicapping challenge
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26 members have voted
August 25th, 2020 at 5:27:41 PM
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I believe the last few years someone was doing a $500 entry college contest. I never did enter it but was tempted as I follow college football much closer than the pros. Also, less people follow college football so I thought I may have an advantage.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
August 25th, 2020 at 5:34:05 PM
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Quote: DRichI believe the last few years someone was doing a $500 entry college contest. I never did enter it but was tempted as I follow college football much closer than the pros. Also, less people follow college football so I thought I may have an advantage.
DRich, I think the only one I saw was a spread Last Man Standing. Those LMS contests are all about economy of scale. The more people you recruit, the better chance you have. I also steer clear of unlimited entries per person for normal contests, because that's just economy of scale, too.
But if you run into a spread contest with limited entries and that kind of price range, please let me know. I would appreciate it greatly (well, maybe not this season, but down the road).
I did not enter bowl contests last season in LV because of the unlimited entries per person or winner-take-all nonsense. You need to have literally dozens of entries to have a shot at those things.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
August 25th, 2020 at 7:55:09 PM
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Quote: redietzDRich, I think the only one I saw was a spread Last Man Standing. Those LMS contests are all about economy of scale. The more people you recruit, the better chance you have. I also steer clear of unlimited entries per person for normal contests, because that's just economy of scale, too.
But if you run into a spread contest with limited entries and that kind of price range, please let me know. I would appreciate it greatly (well, maybe not this season, but down the road).
I did not enter bowl contests last season in LV because of the unlimited entries per person or winner-take-all nonsense. You need to have literally dozens of entries to have a shot at those things.
This may have been the one I was thinking of.
William Hill
Contest: College Pick’em
Entry fee: $500; limit four per person.
Details: Select seven college games ATS each week off menu of 25 games; $75,000 guaranteed prize pool and top 10 finishers are paid. There is a $25,000 bonus if winner of 10-week contest selects 49 winners or more.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
August 25th, 2020 at 7:59:02 PM
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Quote: DRichThis may have been the one I was thinking of.
William Hill
Contest: College Pick’em
Entry fee: $500; limit four per person.
Details: Select seven college games ATS each week off menu of 25 games; $75,000 guaranteed prize pool and top 10 finishers are paid. There is a $25,000 bonus if winner of 10-week contest selects 49 winners or more.
Thanks much! I wouldn't do it this year, but would certainly do it next. I have a guy who used to be a professional proxy. I'll see if he's still doing it. I'll get on the William Hill site and check out the details.
The old Bally's contest was 10 games a week, but they only gave you 20 games from which to choose. None of my faves, like Tulane versus Arkansas State type stuff. So this would be better than that.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
August 26th, 2020 at 1:42:10 PM
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I will probably do this myself if I can get a dependable proxy. Happy to serve as one in return. Any Vegas members interested?
If I do, I'll accept piggy-backers.
If I do, I'll accept piggy-backers.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
August 26th, 2020 at 2:32:39 PM
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The proxy business isn't a bad gig. The person I used for years was Bob Fredericks, an oil industry engineer who also ran Inside Sports View, which published a football annual each year. I haven't spoken to him in a few years, however.
I don't do spread NFL contests. I'm lucky if I have three NFL plays a week, and the majority of those are totals, so I'd just be throwing darts trying to come up with five NFL sides each week. Rather pick three-legged giraffe races.
And for those who think I get on this forum trying to "sell stuff," what I just said in the paragraph above effectively alienates about 90% of all sports bettors. My marketing needs some work, eh?
I don't do spread NFL contests. I'm lucky if I have three NFL plays a week, and the majority of those are totals, so I'd just be throwing darts trying to come up with five NFL sides each week. Rather pick three-legged giraffe races.
And for those who think I get on this forum trying to "sell stuff," what I just said in the paragraph above effectively alienates about 90% of all sports bettors. My marketing needs some work, eh?
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
August 26th, 2020 at 7:13:30 PM
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The number of entries is up to 594.
As a reminder, yesterday there were 553.
As a reminder, yesterday there were 553.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
August 26th, 2020 at 8:30:44 PM
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Quote: WizardThe number of entries is up to 594.
As a reminder, yesterday there were 553.
This is really an anomalous year, so it's possible there will be a substantial overlay, but in a normal year these things almost never wind up with a big overlay. If there's an overlay with two or three days left, someone like Billy Walters will say, "Hey, round up 100 people and let's go win it," and that's what they'll do. The fact there's an overlay weeks from kickoff just gives big money motive to coordinate a passel of entries and get them in the last day.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
August 27th, 2020 at 5:11:08 PM
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I just got an email ad from Westgate. The Superbook Contest ($1,500) is offering two free nights each week of the NFL season to contest entrants.
Interesting marketing ploy. Suggests these contests are having some trouble with entry numbers.
Interesting marketing ploy. Suggests these contests are having some trouble with entry numbers.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
August 27th, 2020 at 6:12:39 PM
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I noticed you said you don't do much in the NFL, however if there is an overlay and there's value throwing darts (certainly you could do better than that) +EV is +EV for a professional sports bettor, I don't care if it's tiddlywinks you're wagering on.Quote: redietzI just got an email ad from Westgate. The Superbook Contest ($1,500) is offering two free nights each week of the NFL season to contest entrants.
Interesting marketing ploy. Suggests these contests are having some trouble with entry numbers.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
August 27th, 2020 at 8:57:52 PM
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Quote: AxelWolfI noticed you said you don't do much in the NFL, however if there is an overlay and there's value throwing darts (certainly you could do better than that) +EV is +EV for a professional sports bettor, I don't care if it's tiddlywinks you're wagering on.
I'd never enter something like this. First, no, it's not really much better than throwing darts.
Second, and we can debate this, knowing what I know, it's not technically +EV. I guarantee you that there are organized, coordinated entries far beyond the two-entries-per-person alleged rules. You will be up against an economy of scale. Count on it.
Third, to paraphrase Cyrus from The Warriors, it's all one season. Can you dig it? In other words, why blow money on some marginal, pain-in-the-ass 2020 NFL contest when the money could be better used in a 2021 college contest?
Fourth, and most important, there are, last I checked, 168 hours in a week. I literally have no hours to spare for the first eight or nine weeks of the college season. I really can't afford to stare at a blank wall like Wilson Fisk in Daredevil, trying to tease out five NFL sides every week. That's as palatable to me as trying to choose which five of 16 corpses to have sex with. You only have so many hours and so much juice per week. I actually have physically trained every year for 40 years to be able to put in the hours to deal with the seasons.
People don't really win convincingly at NFL sides long term. By win convincingly, I mean better than 55%. There aren't really any NFL sides savants of which I'm aware. People have had marvelous two or three year runs, but that's about it.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
August 28th, 2020 at 4:25:42 AM
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Yes, it's no big secret that are syndicates and groups of AP's out there that coordinate their efforts and play stuff like this, I've been involved in such things.Quote: redietz
Second, and we can debate this, knowing what I know, it's not technically +EV. I guarantee you that there are organized, coordinated entries far beyond the two-entries-per-person alleged rules. You will be up against an economy of scale. Count on it.
However, there are times when the math is right and its a +EV contest, even if you are just tossing darts when it comes to your picks. Just like there are guaranteed prize pool poker tournaments that are giving out considerably more money than they have taking in, so even with the pros involved the 'average' player would still have +EV. You can play a slot tournament and it's guaranteed that you're just tossing darts, that doesn't mean you don't have a big advantage if they giving out more than the entry fees.
Anyways, it just sounded like under no circumstances would you enter something like this, even if there is a huge overlay.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
August 28th, 2020 at 6:05:35 AM
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Quote: AxelWolfYes, it's no big secret that are syndicates and groups of AP's out there that coordinate their efforts and play stuff like this, I've been involved in such things.
However, there are times when the math is right and its a +EV contest, even if you are just tossing darts when it comes to your picks. Just like there are guaranteed prize pool poker tournaments that are giving out considerably more money than they have taking in, so even with the pros involved the 'average' player would still have +EV. You can play a slot tournament and it's guaranteed that you're just tossing darts, that doesn't mean you don't have a big advantage if they giving out more than the entry fees.
Anyways, it just sounded like under no circumstances would you enter something like this, even if there is a huge overlay.
If the college and NFL seasons did not overlap and there was a significant overlay, I'd consider it. With an overlap of seasons, I'd need a 2-1 overlay, at least.
The only exception would be if something had happened the prior season or two to lead me to believe that one particular angle with a lot of plays had a huge value attached to it heading into the first week. But that kind of thing happened maybe twice in my lifetime, so not likely.
My girlfriend, who has coordinated groups of high stakes bettors (and I mean serious higher stakes than me), is hard core about these contests in that if she's not the biggest dog in the fight, she's not playing. So something like when I coordinated 40 to 80 entries in the old Boyd contests with other folks having an 1100 entry effort, she'd have nothing to do with anything like my puny cartel. She'd want her group to have a 1200 entry effort or nothing. She's probably right.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
August 28th, 2020 at 9:16:08 AM
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Does the book select five games per week that everybody has to bet, or are there "contest lines" set for every game each week?
August 28th, 2020 at 9:39:18 AM
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Quote: ThatDonGuyDoes the book select five games per week that everybody has to bet, or are there "contest lines" set for every game each week?
I think you can pick any five games you wish every week. Rules.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
September 12th, 2020 at 3:43:24 PM
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The contest just closed with 3,125 entries. I am a 25% piggy-backer on two entries. I was told there was still an overlay at the time I committed to piggy-backing earlier this week. There must have been a surge of last-minute entries.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
September 13th, 2020 at 4:29:31 AM
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Here are my entries for week 1:
Entry 1:
NEP -6.5
Chic +3
SF -6.5
Rams +3
Tenn -2.5
Entry 2:
NEP -6.5
SF -6.5
Rams +3
Sea -2
Phil -5.5
Entry 1:
NEP -6.5
Chic +3
SF -6.5
Rams +3
Tenn -2.5
Entry 2:
NEP -6.5
SF -6.5
Rams +3
Sea -2
Phil -5.5
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
September 13th, 2020 at 9:35:34 AM
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Good Luck!
Here's this week's "Trendsvestite Trivia," brought to you by BetOnline:
The previous SB loser has gone 4-16 ATS the last 20 years in Week One. Belichick is responsible for two of those four.
Of course, I have no interest in taking Arizona. Assuming teams can breathe, I'll probably tease the other side, in fact. So good luck to the Wizard and me both.
Here's this week's "Trendsvestite Trivia," brought to you by BetOnline:
The previous SB loser has gone 4-16 ATS the last 20 years in Week One. Belichick is responsible for two of those four.
Of course, I have no interest in taking Arizona. Assuming teams can breathe, I'll probably tease the other side, in fact. So good luck to the Wizard and me both.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
September 13th, 2020 at 10:29:07 AM
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Quote: WizardHere are my entries for week 1:
"Funky Doctor"?
Meanwhile, in the Circa Survivor Contest, 425 of the 1373 entries chose the Colts, while 1 chose the Jaguars.
Last edited by: ThatDonGuy on Sep 13, 2020
September 14th, 2020 at 6:16:33 AM
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Here are my entries for week 1:
Entry 1:
NEP -6.5 W
Chic +3 W
SF -6.5 L
Rams +3 W
Tenn -2.5 L
Entry 2:
NEP -6.5 W
SF -6.5 L
Rams +3 W
Sea -2 W
Phil -5.5 L
Entry 1:
NEP -6.5 W
Chic +3 W
SF -6.5 L
Rams +3 W
Tenn -2.5 L
Entry 2:
NEP -6.5 W
SF -6.5 L
Rams +3 W
Sea -2 W
Phil -5.5 L
Last edited by: Wizard on Sep 15, 2020
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 25th, 2020 at 11:51:46 AM
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Update concerning the Circa Survivor contest:
Of the 209 entries still in it going into Thanksgiving weekend, 49 have a team in the Steelers-Ravens game...which has been moved to Sunday. The problem is, in this contest, Thanksgiving Day is considered its own weekend, and any game scheduled for Thanksgiving that is not played by Friday morning is treated as a tie - which, in a survivor pool, counts as a loss for both teams.
Meanwhile, in the other contest, Funky Doctor #1 is tied for 242nd with 31 wins (19 losses, and apparently one missed week). The current Top 10 have, out of a maximum 40, one 39, one 38 1/2, four 37 1/2s, one 37, and one 36 1/2. The top 50 cash out; 50th place is currently at 34. There's still hope.
Of the 209 entries still in it going into Thanksgiving weekend, 49 have a team in the Steelers-Ravens game...which has been moved to Sunday. The problem is, in this contest, Thanksgiving Day is considered its own weekend, and any game scheduled for Thanksgiving that is not played by Friday morning is treated as a tie - which, in a survivor pool, counts as a loss for both teams.
Meanwhile, in the other contest, Funky Doctor #1 is tied for 242nd with 31 wins (19 losses, and apparently one missed week). The current Top 10 have, out of a maximum 40, one 39, one 38 1/2, four 37 1/2s, one 37, and one 36 1/2. The top 50 cash out; 50th place is currently at 34. There's still hope.
November 26th, 2020 at 4:26:49 AM
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Quote: ThatDonGuyUpdate concerning the Circa Survivor contest:
The problem is, in this contest, Thanksgiving Day is considered its own weekend, and any game scheduled for Thanksgiving that is not played by Friday morning is treated as a tie - which, in a survivor pool, counts as a loss for both teams.
One would think common sense would prevail, unless they do not want as many entries next season. And the organizers believe bad publicity is better than no publicity.
November 26th, 2020 at 5:33:51 AM
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Quote: IndyJeffreyOne would think common sense would prevail, unless they do not want as many entries next season. And the organizers believe bad publicity is better than no publicity.
Common sense? This is a big money bet! Common sense says "We have established the rules before the bets were taken. We will follow the rules that were established."
As opposed to "We established a set of rules. But we are unilaterally changing them mid season because some games are being postponed, even though we specifically before the season said what we would do in the event of postponed games!"
November 26th, 2020 at 7:28:40 AM
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Quote: IndyJeffreyOne would think common sense would prevail, unless they do not want as many entries next season. And the organizers believe bad publicity is better than no publicity.
The problem is, this isn't the first weekend where they have had this problem. There is a similar rule for Sunday games - if it isn't played by Tuesday morning, it counts as a tie (note this applies to the Million Dollar Handicapping Challenge as well, although in that event, a tie counts as 1/2 win and doesn't automatically eliminate you) - and they enforced it in Week 5 when the Bills-Titans game was moved from Sunday to Tuesday. They can't turn around and say, "Well, it's Thanksgiving, so it's different."
January 4th, 2021 at 7:42:31 AM
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Update: while the final results in the handicapping challenge haven't been released yet, there were 35 perfect entries in the Survivor contest, each receiving $68,285. Note that nobody who was still in the contest going into week 17 picked a losing team.
Meanwhile, the Circa ended up losing $1 million, since the prize pool was "100% of the entry fees, plus $1 million of our money as a bonus if anybody gets through the season with a perfect score."
Meanwhile, the Circa ended up losing $1 million, since the prize pool was "100% of the entry fees, plus $1 million of our money as a bonus if anybody gets through the season with a perfect score."
Last edited by: ThatDonGuy on Jan 4, 2021
January 4th, 2021 at 8:40:02 AM
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Quote: ThatDonGuyUpdate: while the final results in the handicapping challenge haven't been released yet, there were 35 perfect entries in the Survivor contest, each receiving $68,285. Note that nobody who was still in the contest going into week 17 picked a losing team.
Meanwhile, the Circa ended up losing $1 million, since the prize pool was "100% of the entry fees, plus $1 million of our money as a bonus if anybody gets through the season with a perfect score."
I tend to believe they knew losing that would be almost certain.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
January 5th, 2021 at 10:04:35 AM
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Quote: ThatDonGuy"Funky Doctor"?
Looks like Funky Doctor finished 42-37-1 (looks like he missed a week), which is tied for 1204th. It took 51 wins (and 34 losses) to cash out; the winner was 56-27-2.
Had he bet $110 on each game at -110, he would have finished up $130 for the season.
August 26th, 2021 at 7:16:12 PM
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Circa has upped the prize for its Survivor contest to $6 million, with a $1 million bonus for going 20-0 - but in order to get the bonus, you have to choose either Kansas City or Tampa Bay in the final week of the season. Also, to make things a little harder, for the games on the day after Christmas, you have to make your selection between midnight and 9 AM that day; this is because the Thursday and Saturday games that weekend are their own week, in the same way that Thanksgiving is its own week.
December 17th, 2021 at 12:43:45 PM
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Update: good thing Circa changed the rules this year so that games postponed to Tuesday still count (but if it's Wednesday, the game counts as a loss for both teams); I can only imagine the screaming coming from anybody still in at this point (and there are still 23 left, six of which can also win the bonus money) that picked any of Washington, Eagles, or Seahawks (everybody still in the contest has already picked the Rams) for this weekend.
August 12th, 2023 at 7:24:18 AM
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Bump for 2023...
The main change to the Survivor contest is, they pretty much took the million dollar bonus for going 20-0 without choosing either of the two previous Super Bowl teams and added it to the main prize, which is $8 million this season.
There is one catch: the three games on Christmas Day are their own "week," and you have to make your selection for that day between midnight and 9 AM on Christmas morning or it counts as a loss.
The main change to the Survivor contest is, they pretty much took the million dollar bonus for going 20-0 without choosing either of the two previous Super Bowl teams and added it to the main prize, which is $8 million this season.
There is one catch: the three games on Christmas Day are their own "week," and you have to make your selection for that day between midnight and 9 AM on Christmas morning or it counts as a loss.
September 8th, 2023 at 7:52:29 AM
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With no bonus for not choosing the Chiefs (or Eagles) this year, I wonder how many people in the Survivor contest are taking advantage of their "mulligan" and re-entering after selecting the Chiefs in Week 1.
September 8th, 2023 at 2:48:23 PM
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Quote: ThatDonGuyWith no bonus for not choosing the Chiefs (or Eagles) this year, I wonder how many people in the Survivor contest are taking advantage of their "mulligan" and re-entering after selecting the Chiefs in Week 1.
link to original post
I’m in a survivor pool with a bit more than a thousand entries and a bit less than 2% of them picked the Chiefs
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
September 8th, 2023 at 7:50:29 PM
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On the ESPN eliminator challenge, 10% of participants picked Kansas City in the first week.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
September 9th, 2023 at 7:38:20 AM
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Quote: gordonm888On the ESPN eliminator challenge, 10% of participants picked Kansas City in the first week.
link to original post
Against Detroit?
I'll probably get embarrassed here, but I am in two survivor games. I'm taking the Jags in one and the Commanders in the other. I was tempted to take the Ravens, but I try to avoid the biggest minus lines in the first few weeks and hang on to great teams (and super bad ones) for the later weeks if I am doing well. Also, many people will have one loss (you can only pick a team once in both and keep playing in both) if the Texans somehow win as many participants will be grabbing that game.
Depending on how things shake out, I want to save the Ravens for when they go to Arizona after having the opportunity to see if Arizona has improved at all from last year. As far as the Texans go, there are any number of weeks where I might just like whoever is playing the Texans.
My strategy on it is if I don't break out the great teams early, then I will have them later and can wait for favorable matchups. If I last until late in the season undefeated, then my thinking is I will still be getting -5's, or better, while the other participants are forced into -2's, -3's and stuff.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
September 9th, 2023 at 9:03:39 AM
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Quote: Mission146Quote: gordonm888On the ESPN eliminator challenge, 10% of participants picked Kansas City in the first week.
link to original post
Against Detroit?
I'll probably get embarrassed here, but I am in two survivor games. I'm taking the Jags in one and the Commanders in the other. I was tempted to take the Ravens, but I try to avoid the biggest minus lines in the first few weeks and hang on to great teams (and super bad ones) for the later weeks if I am doing well. Also, many people will have one loss (you can only pick a team once in both and keep playing in both) if the Texans somehow win as many participants will be grabbing that game.
Depending on how things shake out, I want to save the Ravens for when they go to Arizona after having the opportunity to see if Arizona has improved at all from last year. As far as the Texans go, there are any number of weeks where I might just like whoever is playing the Texans.
My strategy on it is if I don't break out the great teams early, then I will have them later and can wait for favorable matchups. If I last until late in the season undefeated, then my thinking is I will still be getting -5's, or better, while the other participants are forced into -2's, -3's and stuff.
link to original post
What I used to do was go through the whole schedule and identify one or two teams each week that I think I would like to pick based on what I would guess the lines will be. Then I would work backwards trying to figure out who to pick each week.
You can't know everything, but you can know anything.
September 9th, 2023 at 1:50:39 PM
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I have no plan. Just taking Vikings this week.
September 13th, 2023 at 3:53:19 PM
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Update: of the 9267 entries (which means the prize pool is $9,267,000), only 68 selected the Chiefs. The top choice was the Commanders, with 3549; the top losing choice was the Vikings, with 1044.
January 7th, 2024 at 4:51:37 PM
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And in the end, there were four players left going into week 18; two had the Bengals, and two had the Raiders, both of whom won, so each of them gets about $2.3 million. Since the Bengals had an early game and the Raiders had a late game, this does not include any money the two Bengals selectors may have gotten by a money line hedge on the Raiders (since if the Raiders would have lost, each would have gotten another $2.3 million).
